Race for robotic supremacy: US and China battle to build world's most advanced humanoids

CNA

2 days ago

BEIJING / SAN FRANCISCO: The battle is on between the world's two biggest superpowers to build the most advanced humanoids.
In April, a half-marathon between humans and robots – the first of its kind globally – was held in Beijing. Some of the participating humanoids, clad in running shoes, successfully crossed the finish line while others struggled from the beginning.
Over in the United States, American tech giant Nvidia held its annual AI developer conference in March where a range of robots were showcased, including Neo Gamma – a humanoid designed for household tasks like watering plants and vacuuming carpets.
As both Washington and Beijing push for robotics development, analysts say it is difficult to pinpoint who is in the lead. Reports have named leading humanoid manufacturers as almost exclusively from both countries, such as Tesla from the US and Chinese firm Unitree Robotics.
But one thing is clear – the lucrative market is shaping a new era where humans and machines co-exist in ways that were previously unimaginable.
CHINA'S ROBOTICS PUSH
According to a report released last month by Morgan Stanley Research, the global humanoids market could surpass US$5 trillion by 2050.
The report also stated that more than 1 billion humanoids could be in use by then, with China likely to have the highest number of 302.3 million, followed by the US at 77.7 million.
Chinese humanoids first shot to stardom early this year when they danced on the screens of millions at the Spring Festival Gala, capturing international headlines.
Manufacturers have entered mass production, aiming to produce more than 1,000 units this year with a domestic output value of about US$610 million.
Much of that success is owed to its well-established supply chain, government policies and funds that helped drive the robust development of the robotics sector.
China had 451,700 smart robotics firms by the end of 2024, marking a staggering 206 per cent increase from 2020, according to official data.
"This sort of advancement and progress, it sort of reflects a mix of public private cooperation in China that's supported by its world class and high value STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) talent pool, as well as decades-long and mature manufacturing infrastructure,' said Ray Wang, a Washington-based analyst focusing on the US-China technology competition and the semiconductor industry in Asia.
He also pointed to China's growing train of entrepreneurship and innovation in advanced technology, which he said would facilitate a lot of innovation.
The momentum continued at this year's annual Zhongguancun tech forum held in Beijing, where robots took centre stage.
Set against the backdrop of the trade war with the US, manufacturers were keen to show off their mechanical inventions. These included Qingfei Technologies' Nia – the forum's customer service robot powered by AI.
The company's CEO Wei Yufei told CNA that she hopes robots can take over some service-related roles from humans, such as in education or even emotional companionship.
Analysts said they are optimistic about the future for robotics in China, especially as the country faces increasing societal and geopolitical challenges.
Wang noted that the Chinese government saw the development of humanoid robots as a 'critical solution' for structural demographic challenges, including its ageing population and declining fertility rates.
'In the context of US-China strategic competition, they believe that (humanoid robots are) a frontier technology to set it as a national priority to develop,' he added.
'They believe this is a thing that they really need to compete and develop in a competition with the United States."
AMERICA'S ROBOTICS PUSH
In the US, Tesla CEO Elon Musk earlier announced plans to produce about 5,000 units of its humanoid robot Optimus this year.
Both Tesla and Nvidia, the world's largest chipmaker by revenue, have touted robots as the next big thing. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang claimed earlier this year that humanoid robots are less than five years away from seeing wide use in manufacturing facilities.
In his keynote speech in March at Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference in San Jose, Huang said 'the time has come for robots'.
'Physical AI and robotics are moving so fast. Everybody pay attention to this space. This could very well likely be the largest industry of all,' he added.
Other major players like Microsoft, Google and OpenAI have waded in as well, but they are not the only ones.
US-based startup Figure AI announced in February that it secured US$675 million in funding from some of the biggest names in tech, including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. The company aims to build the world's first commercially viable humanoid worker.
Another US-based startup - 1X Technologies, which is behind the Neo humanoid robot – said it aims to 'solve a lot of the problems we have today' in relation to labour shortages.
'That journey starts in the home,' said the company's CEO and founder Bernt Bornich.
'Competition is important, because I hope that if we have this interview in five years, we're still ahead, and the world will look very different, and hopefully we can all help each other just move the field.'
Analysts said that China and the US have both been making strides in the field, making it tough to say definitively who is at the forefront.
Bob O'Donnell, president and chief analyst at market research firm TECHnalysis Research, said China has seen a lot more development of raw components and other elements like motors and sensors.
'On the other hand, in the US, we've seen a lot of software development over the last several years,' he added.
'And this market is evolving very quickly, because we started out with industrial robots and robotic arms for manufacturing and things like that. And we're rapidly deploying that, taking some of that technology, and obviously putting it in humanoids.'
However, matters have become more complicated amid the current geopolitical climate, with the US having imposed sweeping tariffs on imported goods as well as semiconductor export controls on China.
Even though this could impede collaboration, experts said humanoid development is set to continue.
'A lot of these technological advancements are being replicated very quickly - somebody makes an advancement here, and it happens there,' noted O'Donnell.
'There's a phrase that a lot of people say: It takes a village. Well, it takes an entire world to help build these robotics.'