Severe weather events predicted across Australia as flooding along NSW coast recedes

Australia Broadcast Center

23-05-2025

Just as flood levels start to recede along the New South Wales coast, the atmosphere will serve up further severe weather events across Australia during the coming days — from damaging winds and snow in the south, to widespread rain across the north.
The blast of wintry weather for south-east states will arrive with the passage of a vigorous cold front early next week and is likely to bring the heaviest rain in at least five months to drought ravaged southern South Australia and south-west Victoria, along with a healthy dump of alpine snow.
In the meantime, a major rain event will drench the country's north and interior, but thankfully no significant falls from either system will reach the swamped NSW coast.
While mostly dry weather prevails in the flood zones, river levels will remain elevated for several days after the wettest May on record in parts of the Hunter and Mid North Coast.
Most agricultural regions of South Australia, and a pocket of north-west Victoria has received less than 25 millimetres of rain so far in 2025.
Adelaide has been slightly wetter with 31mm, however that still makes it comfortably the city's driest start to a year on record with data for comparison back to 1839.
While over 1600mm of rain has drenched the NSW Mid North Coast in 2025, less than 25mm has fallen in much of SA.
But finally, some rain is on the way, thanks to a powerful cold front currently surging north from the Southern Ocean.
Before this system arrives, showers will brush the SA coastline today due to a weaker first front, while the low responsible for record NSW flooding will bring rain to Tasmania.
The second front, easily the strongest so far this year, will then sweep across the Great Australia Bight on Sunday, and by Monday will spread showers over most of south-east Australia.
While the upcoming system will barely put a dent in the substantial rain deficits which have accumulated during the past 16 months, it should help to produce around 20 to 30mm from Saturday to Tuesday from lower Eyre Peninsula, through Kangaroo Island and Fleurieu Peninsula, to south-east SA and the western Victorian coastline.
Further inland rainfall intensity will drop off and less than 5mm is likely over the Wimmera, Mallee, Flinders, Riverlands and Murraylands.
To the east, around 10 to 20mm should fall on the NSW central and southern ranges, along with the ranges of eastern Victoria, although the higher alpine areas should see closer to 30 or 40mm.
The front will also drop temperatures by around 5 degrees Celsius in 24 hours as a mild northerly airstream is replaced by polar air from deep in the Southern Ocean.
The arrival of the front will be welcomed by ski resorts — its passage overhead later Monday will cause rain to transition into a solid snowfall, and modelling shows anywhere from about 15 to 25 centimetres should accumulate on the higher slopes by Tuesday afternoon.
However, resorts will be hoping for another snowfall or two during the next fortnight as a solitary dump in May normally melts before the traditional King's Birthday long weekend opening.
The strength of the front will also whip up wild winds and warnings are likely in multiple states for damaging gusts.
Northerly winds will strengthen tomorrow ahead of the system ahead of the first burst of gales on the SA coast in the evening.
Maximum gusts should near 100 kilometres per hour, strong enough to bring down trees and lead to minor property damage and power outages.
Damaging gusts will continue across much of SA on Monday and also spread across Victoria and southern NSW as the front moves rapidly east.
The strongest winds will then shift to eastern NSW on Tuesday, and again gusts near 100 kph are likely in multiple districts.
It might be the dry season, but an unseasonable soaking is ahead for northern Australia from the first Northwest Cloudband of 2025.
The first streaks of cloud are already forming over the Kimberley thanks to a trough off the coast, and a bend in the jet stream during the coming days will enhance the band and spread it deep into the interior.
The bulk of the rain will arrive across the Kimberley on Monday and Tuesday, heaviest in the west where up to 200mm is possible, around 10 times the May average and enough to trigger a Flood Watch for several rivers.
The rain should also soak the central interior through Tuesday and Wednesday, including possibly in excess of 50mm around Alice Springs, around three times their May average.
Even northern parts of the Top End should see dry season rain and Darwin has showers on the forecast from Monday to Thursday.
As the band continues to shift east, rain should then spread through Queensland later in the week — although this far ahead it's difficult to forecast exactly where and how much rain will reach the eastern states.
Below is one model's current weekly rain forecast showing the extent of the rain covering most of central and northern Australia.