Has Syria Entered a State of 'Somalisation'?
• There are many differences between Somalia and Syria, yet striking similarities as well. Somalia was once a nation of prosperity and progress, earning it the nickname 'the Switzerland of Africa' in the 1960s. While there are notable distinctions between former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and former Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre, both nations experienced long tenures under these leaders, marked by regional conflicts, shifting international alliances, and internal wars that ultimately led to their downfall. In both cases, their removal paved the way for civil strife and the rise of extremist groups, resulting in what has come to be known globally as 'Somalisation' – a state where a failed government presides over a fragmented nation, where armed factions roam unchecked, and where the population teeters on the edge of famine and systemic collapse, all while enduring continuous sieges and existential threats, short of outright territorial partition into officially recognised entities.
• The past two days in Syria have been particularly alarming. The bloodshed along the Syrian coast, largely suppressed in the Arab and international media, coupled with the dangerous escalation of sectarian tensions, ethnic cleansing, and massacres, suggest that any remaining opportunity to establish a viable governing structure – one that could preserve Syria's unity and ensure the meaningful participation of its diverse communities, has been lost. If it was once a difficult prospect, it is now verging on impossibility.
• In the aftermath of the coastal violence, the Kurds in northeastern Syria will cling more firmly to their autonomy, their weapons, and their resources. The people of Suwayda will likely maintain a cautious stance, refraining from committing to any joint political project, especially one involving Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, if the cost is disarmament. Meanwhile, foreign interventions under the pretext of 'protecting minorities' will gain further legitimacy, as will calls for federalism and partition.
• A centralised government, sustained by an exclusive sectarian and partisan core, no matter how confident it may be in its numerical dominance, will soon realise it has plunged Syria into an enduring civil war. Even if it temporarily regains control over the coastal region, such control will be fleeting. The hopes that many Syrians had for relief from sanctions, economic recovery, security stability, and an end to Israeli attacks have now vanished, replaced instead by anxieties and nightmares.
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Ya Libnan
21 hours ago
- Ya Libnan
Israeli strikes gutted Iran's leadership. Will a regime change follow?
Rescuers work at the site of a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Iranian Red Crescent Society/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi By Samia Nakhoul and Parisa Hafezi Israel has gutted Iran's nuclear and military leadership with airstrikes that leave a weakened Tehran with few options to retaliate, including an all-out war that it is neither equipped for nor likely to win, four regional officials said. The overnight strikes by Israel – repeated for second night on Friday – have ratcheted up the confrontation between the arch foes to an unprecedented level after years of war in the shadows, which burst into the open when Iran's ally Hamas attacked Israel in 2023. Regional security sources said it was unlikely that Tehran could respond with similarly effective strikes because its missile capabilities and military network in the region have been severely degraded by Israel since the Hamas attacks that triggered the Gaza war. State news agency IRNA said that Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on Friday in retaliation. But the Israeli military said the missiles numbered fewer than 100 and most were intercepted or fell short. No casualties were immediately reported. The regional security sources said Iran's leaders, humiliated and increasingly preoccupied with their own survival, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of Israeli military pressure, raising the prospect of further escalation – including covert attacks on Israel or even the perilous option of seeking to build a nuclear bomb rapidly. 'They can't survive if they surrender,' said Mohanad Hage Ali at the Carnegie Middle East Center, a think tank in Beirut. 'They need to strike hard against Israel but their options are limited. I think their next option is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.' Withdrawing from the NPT would be a serious escalation as it would signal Iran is accelerating its enrichment program to produce weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, experts said. Iran's leadership has not confirmed whether it would attend a sixth round of deadlocked talks with the United States over its nuclear program scheduled for Sunday in Oman. Tehran's regional sway has been weakened by Israel's attacks on its proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – as well as by the ousting of Iran's close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Western sanctions have also hit Iran's crucial oil exports and the economy is reeling from a string of crises including a collapsing currency and rampant inflation, as well as energy and water shortages. 'They can't retaliate through anyone. The Israelis are dismantling the Iranian empire piece by piece, bit by bit … and now they've started sowing internal doubt about (the invincibility of) the regime,' said Sarkis Naoum, a regional expert. 'This is massive hit.' Israel strikes targeting key facilities in Tehran and other cities continued into the night on Friday. The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was defiant on Friday, saying Israel had initiated a war and would suffer 'a bitter fate'. THE NUCLEAR OPTION Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center think-tank, said Iran has been backed into a corner with limited options. One possibility would be to offer assurances – in private – that it will abandon uranium enrichment and dismantle its nuclear capabilities, since any public declaration of such a capitulation would likely provoke a fierce domestic backlash. He said another option could involve a return to clandestine warfare, reminiscent of the 1980s bombings targeting U.S. and Israeli embassies and military installations. A third, and far more perilous option, would be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerate its uranium enrichment program Such a move, al-Sager warned, would be tantamount to a declaration of war and would almost certainly provoke a strong international response – not only from Israel, but also from the United States and other Western powers. Trump has threatened military action to ensure Iran doesn't obtain an atomic weapon. He reiterated his position on Thursday, saying: 'Iran must completely give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon.' Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% it would need for nuclear weapons. It has enough material at that level, if processed further, for nine nuclear bombs, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog yardstick. 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'Therefore, if the U.S. will not be part of the war, I assume that some parts of (Iran's) nuclear project will remain,' she told reporters on Friday. SHAKEN TO THE CORE Friday's strikes have not only inflicted strategic damage but have also shaken Iran's leadership to the core, according to a senior regional official close to the Iranian establishment. Defiance has transformed into concern and uncertainty within the ruling elite and, behind closed doors, anxiety is mounting, not just over the external threats but also their eroding grip on power at home, the official said. 'Panic has surged among the leadership,' the senior regional official said. 'Beyond the threat of further attacks, a deeper fear looms large: domestic unrest.' A moderate former Iranian official said the assassination in 2020 of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, on the orders of President Donald Trump, started the rot. Since then, the Islamic Republic has struggled to reassert its influence across the region and has never fully recovered. 'This attack might be the beginning of the end,' he said. If protests erupt, and the leadership responds with repression, it will only backfire, the former official said, noting that public anger has been simmering for years, fuelled by sanctions, inflation and an unrelenting crackdown on dissent. In his video address shortly after the attacks started, Netanyahu suggested he would like to see regime change in Iran and sent a message to Iranians. 'Our fight is not with you, our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years. I believe the day of your liberation is near,' he said. The hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, throwing the Iranian security establishment into a state of confusion and chaos. 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Al Manar
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- Al Manar
Israeli Incursion in Rural Damascus Leaves One Martyred, Seven Detained
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