In Brazil, a familiar question: Is the president too old to run again?

Washington Post

a day ago

BRASÍLIA — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is worried about his legs.
The Brazilian leader has become 'obsessed' with strengthening his leg muscles, one longtime aide said, so his gait never betrays the truth: That on the cusp of turning 80, he is now an old man.
During the 2022 campaign, he gritted his way through a painful hip condition, but waited to tell the public — and to undergo hip replacement surgery — until he was back in the presidential palace. Weeks later, he was showing off his leg workouts in a video posted on social media. After suffering a bad fall in the bathroom last year, he was soon back in his exercise gear, with a word about mobility.
'Do leg exercises,' Lula said. 'Do lots of leg exercises.'
But such displays of vitality have failed to temper concerns about his age. Recent polls show two-thirds of voters are worried about Lula's health, and their concern is shared by a number of the president's political allies and advisers, seven of whom spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity to candidly describe their impressions. They say Lula is largely the same but is now slower to make decisions, far more irritable and is struggling to keep up with a changing Brazil.
Despite the public and private consternation about his advancing age, the leftist is expected to soon launch his campaign for a record fourth presidential term, which, if successful, would keep him in office until he's 85 years old.
His likely decision to renege on an earlier promise to step aside after his current term has drawn uncomfortable comparisons with former U.S. president Joe Biden, whose determination to run for reelection despite his visible enfeeblement remains a matter of intense scrutiny and recrimination inside the Democratic Party. Like Biden, the Brazilian leader has also failed to cultivate a clear political heir.
'This is Lula's own fault,' said a senior leader of the president's Workers Party. 'It's a messianic thing he has where he thinks no one else can get the job done like he can.'
Lula's press office did not respond to a request for comment.
In public, Lula still appears sharp and in command of the facts. The famously charismatic politician speaks forcefully and moves with the vigor of a much younger man.
'I have the energy of a 30-year-old,' he once quipped, 'and the lust of a 20-year-old.'
In 2022, Lula, who had already served two terms as president and left office enormously popular, mounted his political comeback by styling himself as a senior statesman. He vowed to restore political stability to a country that had been devastated by the coronavirus and to defeat President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he called a unique threat to Brazilian democracy.
Since that victory, however, he has failed to engender the same widespread adoration. His approval ratings, according to two major polls this month, have sunk to record lows.
'This is an antiquated government,' said Thomas Traumann, a political analyst. 'A good part of the population did not vote to bring back the Lula era. They did it just to get rid of Jair Bolsonaro.'
Now, polls show, a plurality of Brazilians say governance was better under Bolsonaro.
With less than 18 months until the next presidential election, progressives say the president has left them with few options. Allies and advisers readily concede that Lula is diminished. He speaks often about death and mortality. He has bouts of dizziness. But they're convinced the aging leftist still gives them the best shot in 2026, contending with an electorate that remains deeply conservative.
'It won't be easy to win with Lula,' said close ally Emidio de Souza. 'But it would be impossible to win without him.'
Brazilian journalists have a name for this political quagmire: O efeito Biden, 'The Biden effect.'
Lula's recent struggles represent new territory for a politician whose popular touch has rarely been in doubt. Born into poverty in Brazil's northeast, he rose from the factory floor to national prominence through eloquence and persistence. He ran for president and lost three times before finally winning in 2002, becoming Brazil's first working-class president. During two consecutive terms, the economy boomed and his approval rating eclipsed 80 percent. Barack Obama described Lula as 'the most popular politician on earth.'
His love affair with the Brazilian people cooled once he was out of office. His chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff, was brought down by allegations of financial wrongdoing. Then an extensive corruption probe tarred his party and ultimately led to his own conviction and imprisonment. Lula, who denied the allegations against him, was released in 2019 and quickly renewed his bid for the presidency.
But once he got there — barely defeating Bolsonaro — it became clear to his closest advisers that he had changed. And so had Brazil. His consensus-building style of governance no longer seemed suited for an increasingly polarized country where voters inhabited completely different media ecosystems.
'He understands polarization, but he doesn't know how to deal with it,' a prominent Workers Party leader said.
Instead, he has seemed far more preoccupied with international relations, some aides said. Rarely does a month go by when he's not jetting around the world to meet with other global leaders. In two and a half years in office, according to a count by Poder 360, he has spent 114 days outside of Brazil.
'In the beginning of 2024, I told Lula, 'Why aren't you more popular?'' a congressional ally said. 'And he called me a pessimist. He didn't seem connected to the problems, but that's Lula in his third term: impatient, self-reliant and oblivious.'
Lula's age, aides agreed, was an unresolvable problem, creating the perception that the left in general, and his party in particular, were ill-equipped to lead the country into the future.
'The Workers Party has gotten old alongside Lula,' said a former cabinet member under Rousseff. 'It's now a party of old people who don't talk to and don't have programs for young people.'
That sentiment was clear in interviews this week with 16 people, from the parks of Rio de Janeiro to the shopping malls of Brasília. A few voters said Lula's age was not a concern. 'He'll be more experienced,' reasoned Michele Gomes, 37, a nanny.
But most believed his age was disqualifying.
Rian Santino, 20, said he didn't feel represented by someone as old as his grandfather. 'He should step aside,' the florist said.
Renato Mile, 37, looked across the fruit he was selling and shook his head at the thought of Lula. 'It's over, man,' he said. 'That's enough already.'
Nearby, William Laino, 27, puffed on a cigarette. He said it hurt to admit as a progressive, but he no longer felt inspired by Lula, whose ideas weren't communicated as clearly as they once were.
'I'll still vote for him though,' he said, blowing out smoke with a sigh. 'He's the only viable option who's not hard right.'