Airbus revises up 20-year airplane demand forecast despite trade tensions
Airbus said the latest forecasts assume that base Trump tariffs of 10 per cent on most imports would stay in place for a while, with no larger levies. PHOTO: REUTERS
PARIS - Airbus revised up its forecast for airplane demand over the next 20 years on June 12, telling investors and suppliers the air transport industry was expected to ride out the current wave of trade tensions.
The European planemaker said it expected the industry it and its US rival Boeing dominate to deliver 43,420 commercial jets between 2025 and 2044, an increase of 2 per cent from its previous rolling 20-year forecast issued a year ago.
That includes 42,450 passenger jets, up 2 per cent from the previous forecast, and 970 factory-built freighters, up 3 per cent.
Airbus stuck to its previous projection that air traffic would grow on average by 3.6 per cent a year, despite chopping half a percentage point off its forecast for annual growth in trade to 2.6 per cent and shaving its projection for global GDP growth slightly to 2.5 per cent.
'There is certainly some turbulence thanks to the recent geopolitical and trade situation,' Antonio Da Costa, vice president for market analysis and forecast, told reporters.
'It is still very early days... nevertheless the early signals are giving us some level of hope.'
The aerospace industry has been roiled by US tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump and the prospect of reprisals by the European Union, as well as wild swings in punitive duties exchanged between the United States and China.
US and Chinese officials agreed on June 10 on ways to restore a trade truce and roll back duelling restrictions.
Airbus officials said the latest forecasts assume that base tariffs of 10 per cent imposed by the Trump administration on most imports would stay in place for a while, contrasting this with the deeper disruption threatened by larger punitive tariffs.
Air transport, which is closely tied to the economy and rising numbers of middle classes with disposable incomes, has frequently proven itself resilient to shocks, Mr Da Costa said.
Airbus chief executive officer Guillaume Faury has called for a return to tariff-free trading for aerospace, joining a chorus of US industry leaders in warning of damage from a tariff war.
Airbus raised its demand forecast for single-aisle planes like the A320neo family and competing 737 Max, which account for four out of every five deliveries, by 2 per cent. It expects 34,250 of them over 20 years, of which 56 per cent would be additional capacity.
Airbus revised up its forecasts for wide-body passenger jet deliveries by 3 per cent to 8,200 planes. That part of the market for long-haul jets has seen growing demand led by Gulf carriers. REUTERS
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