The missed century: can South Asia rise again?

Business Recorder

5 hours ago

'Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.' Arnold Toynbee's warning resounds powerfully across the contemporary South Asian landscape. Progress does not occur by accident, it demands conscious awareness, meticulous planning, and sustained reflection. For any nation, understanding its history and geography is not a luxury but a necessity. History serves as our collective memory, bearing witness to past struggles, triumphs, and failures.
Geography, meanwhile, is a natural unifier; rivers, mountain ranges, ecosystems, and climate zones ignore political boundaries. Decisions made in one territory often affect neighbouring states, particularly in matters such as water, agriculture, energy, and environmental management. Without geographic consciousness and cooperative frameworks, regions risk falling into competition over scarce resources, repeating past mistakes, and descending into confusion, or worse, decline.
History often unfolds in cycles, with major shifts recurring every 250 to 300 years. It would be short-sighted to draw long-term conclusions based solely on the geopolitical developments of the last eight decades. We bear the responsibility of course-correction for a region that along with South Asia, impacts neighboring countries including Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asian states; representing over 26 percent of the world's population.
In the early 1700s, the Indian subcontinent accounted for nearly 30 percent of global GDP. That share fell to 16 percent in the 1800s and plummeted to 3 percent by the time of Partition in 1947. This prosperity was underpinned by sophisticated irrigation systems, expansive trade networks, and vibrant artisan economies that transcended linguistic and ethnic divides.
The rapid economic deterioration was driven largely by colonial exploitation and the extraction of wealth by the British Raj. Today, despite India's recent economic rise, the combined GDP of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh accounts for less than 4.5 percent of global output, whereas Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries contribute a little under 1 percent to the global GDP. If our intelligentsia fails to understand this historical regression—and worse, to act upon it—then we risk being remembered as a generation of pawns that squandered its post-colonial potential.
At the heart of every functioning nation lies a social contract; a mutual agreement in which the state pledges to protect its citizens, ensure public goods, and create pathways to upward mobility. In South Asia, this contract has been severely undermined by perpetual hostilities, divisive politics, inefficient governments and an obsession with external and internal 'enemies'. This is not just an economic failure, it is a moral failure, generational in its consequences.
While Partition marked the realization of sovereign states and fulfilled the aspirations of many, however, its aftermath set the stage towards redirecting national energies towards prolonged military rivalries, elite capture, lack of reforms and rampant corruption, rather than social progress, focus on human development, and poverty alleviation. These problems have overshadowed the deep cultural, linguistic, and economic ties that bind the region.
Pakistan and India, for example, continue to suffer from low per capita incomes, around USD1,824 and USD2,880, respectively, far below the middle-income cap of approximately USD14,000. The Human Development Index (HDI) that includes health, education, income and living conditions, ranks Pakistan at 168 and India at 130 out of 193 countries. Focusing on health, education, human development and social reforms has become imperative. Or else, we may not see a truly progressive state in our lifetime, or even our children's.
Additionally, a fundamental shift in mindset is also needed, from adversarial nationalism to inclusive cooperation, decades of growth may yet be consumed by the very divisions that have long plagued us. In this regard, India offers a sobering case study. The current administration's embrace of radical nationalism has coincided with rising communal tensions and a gradual erosion of democratic institutions.
This internal fraying not only damages India's own social cohesion but also diminishes its regional and global standing. India too suffers from an elitist economy along with inefficient institutions to cater to the needs of a large population still living below the poverty line.
The recent four-day conflict, rather than asserting Indian strength, weakened its economic stability and geopolitical relevance, particularly as a counterweight to China. Pakistan, while faring relatively better in this instance, continues to grapple with structural weaknesses: a stagnant economy, lack of institutional reform, elite capture, and a fraying social fabric.
Reaching middle-income status within a generation will require nothing short of transformation. This includes fiscal discipline, debt reduction, a reallocation of expenditures toward health and education, and a robust investment in innovation and human capital.
Regional connectivity must be unlocked through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI), and enhanced ties with our South Asian neighbors, Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. Governance must be reformed; rendered inclusive, transparent, and responsive to local communities.
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), once envisioned as the cornerstone of regional cooperation, remains largely paralysed. Political mistrust, hard borders, and minimal cross-border investment have eroded the potential for regional economies of scale.
Nationalistic narratives continue to undermine collaborative efforts in science, health, and technology. In contrast, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) show that regional history need not be a barrier to future integration.
South Asia, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Iran sit at the crossroads of two emerging economic giants—China and Russia. This strategic geography makes sector-wise regional cooperation both logical and necessary for shared prosperity and resilience. Likewise, there is a huge potential in areas of information technology and digitalization.
Moreover, the region's rich mineral resources—copper, lithium, and rare earths—can drive growth if harnessed through coordinated, responsible extraction and value-added processing frameworks. For context, mineral potential for South Asia, Central Asia, Iran and Afghanistan represents nearly 11 percent of world's copper reserves, nearly 14 percent of coal, 9 percent of iron ore, and 25 percent of uranium reserves. Such collaboration can activate new engines of sustainable regional development.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) envisions regional growth grounded in stability and connectivity, an ethos that could encompass India as well. Forums such as the SCO and even the ASEAN offer viable pathways for cooperative engagement. China views South Asia through a strategic prism that balances regional integration with its rivalry with the United States.
While India remains a key competitor—especially through the Quad—China has no vested interest in a full-scale conflict between nuclear-armed neighbours. For India, rethinking its posture toward China and Pakistan could open new economic frontiers that include Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asia and the Indian Ocean's evolving strategic architecture.
There are many global examples in this regard. Post-WWII Germany and Japan rebounded by critically reassessing their pasts and rebuilding with purpose. Singapore, limited in both size and resources, transformed itself into a global trade and finance hub. Europe, once a theatre of endless conflict, forged the European Union to bind old rivals through economic interdependence. South Asia, with its shared cultures and histories, can emulate the spirit, if not the exact structures, of European reconciliation and integration.
Terrorism continues to destabilize the region, feeding off political grievances, economic disparity, and extremist narratives. Each state must take uncompromising responsibility for curbing radicalization, and strengthening internal security. The cost of inaction is too high, i.e., undermining social cohesion, investor confidence, and long-term development. States must confront this threat not as a favour to neighbours, but as a duty to their own people. Or else, terrorism will remain a chronic obstacle to regional progress.
South Asia is among the world's most climate-vulnerable regions, grappling with rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, and accelerating glacial melt. Deadly heat waves and worsening water stress threaten agriculture, while Himalayan glacier retreat endangers long-term water security and triggers floods.
Urban flooding, rising humidity, and heat stress are compounding health risks, especially in cities with weak infrastructure. These pressures are driving internal migration, deepening poverty, and undermining regional stability. Preparing for climate change must be central to South Asia's agenda. Investing in green infrastructure, sustainable farming, and early warning systems is no longer optional — it is survival.
South Asia and Central Asia now stand at a defining juncture. Pakistan, at the pivot of regions, holds the potential to spearhead a regional renaissance, if it chooses dialogue over discord, trade over tension, and vision over vendetta. Every resource diverted from elite-driven governance without institutional reforms and non-developmental expenditure into schools, skill development, hospitals, and infrastructure pays compounded dividends.
Each functional trade route and open border sows trust and disperses prosperity. The stakes are too high for complacency. Across the region, young people are not demanding conflict; they are pleading for opportunity, equity, and a future worth investing in. While national security remains paramount, it must coexist with a broader strategic vision of sustainable, inclusive prosperity.
The compass lies before us. Let us resist the urge to politicize our shared history and instead harness it to build a future of cooperation. In renewing our social contracts, domestically and regionally, South Asia can reclaim its place in the global order, not as a flashpoint, but as a beacon of stability and shared growth.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025