Poland's nail-biter election: Could Warsaw turn on Brussels?
Europe
43:22
From the show
Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski will need the kind of boost in turnout that propelled his counterpart from Bucharest to victory, Nicoşur Dan who last weekend came to campaign for the candidate from Donald Tusk's Civic Platform. Trzaskowski's not the only one with celebrity endorsements.
Donald Trump dispatching his director of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to stump for nationalist right candidate Karol Nawrocki. The Law and Justice party of the outgoing Andrej Duda hopes to rally the 20-percent of voters who veered further to the right in the first round. In a nation where living standards have skyrocketed since joining the EU two decades ago, why are so many citizens eager to elect Eurosceptics?
Would a Nawrocki win call time after just one year on the efforts of prime minister Tusk to undo the PiS' contentious rule of law reforms? Currently the former president of the European Council, seen here with the leaders of France and Germany, has positioned himself at the heart of Brussels policy making. Looking ahead, which direction do Poles want?
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LeMonde
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In Poland, the grip of the anti-European far right weighs on the presidential election
On May 18, the results of the first round of the presidential election in Poland – the second round is scheduled for Sunday, June 1 – came as a surprise, even a shock. Not only was the liberal candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, who had been considered the clear favorite throughout the campaign, trailed by his ultraconservative rival, Karol Nawrocki – with 31.3% and 29.5% of the vote – but the far right achieved a breakthrough not seen since the fall of communism. Slawomir Mentzen, of the nationalist libertarian party Konfederacja, secured 14.8% of the vote, and Grzegorz Braun, an openly antisemitic and homophobic royalist, received 6.3%. The surge was especially dramatic among 18 to 29-year-olds, who turned out in greater numbers than any other age group. Among them, Slawomir Mentzen gathered 35% of the vote, while Adrian Zandberg, the representative of the radical left, got 19% (compared to 4.8% across all voters). Grzegorz Braun recorded 5%. Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS), which backs Karol Nawrocki, has over the years shifted toward unabashed nationalism. As a result, far-right parties collectively garnered nearly 53% of the vote. Among young voters, protest votes totaled 60%, with 40% going to the far right. Should these numbers be seen as the rise of a "brown wave" poised to reshape the political landscape? A closer look suggests the results are more nuanced. Protest vote All studies showed that the electorate of Konfederacja – primarily young and male – is not a monolithic ideological bloc. It is volatile, with protest voting often outweighing ideological considerations. Many voters were drawn to Slawomir Mentzen's ultra-liberal promises ("zero taxes," "minimal state," etc.), overlooking other aspects of his platform. This phenomenon was amplified by an effective social media campaign, where short TikTok videos and punchy messages proved more effective than traditional speeches and TV interviews.
France 24
12 hours ago
- France 24
US top court lets Trump revoke legal status for 500,000 migrants
The decision puts 532,000 people who came from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela to the United States under a two-year humanitarian "parole" program launched by former president Joe Biden at risk of deportation. And it marked the second time the highest US court has sided with Trump in his aggressive push to deliver on his election pledge to deport millions of non-citizens, through a series of policy announcements that have prompted a flurry of lawsuits. But the opinion sparked a scathing dissent from two justices in the liberal minority who said the six conservatives on the bench had "plainly botched" their ruling and undervalued the "devastating consequences" to those potentially affected. The revoked program had allowed entry into the United States for two years for up to 30,000 migrants a month from the four countries, all of which have dismal human rights records. But as Trump takes a hard line on immigration, his administration moved to overturn those protections, winning a ruling from the Supreme Court earlier this month that allowed officials to begin deporting some 350,000 Venezuelans. The latest case resulted from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem canceling an 18-month extension of the temporary protected status of the migrants, citing in particular the "authoritarian" nature of Nicolas Maduro's government in Venezuela. The department gave them 30 days to leave the country unless they had legal protection under another program. 'Needless human suffering' "The court has plainly botched this assessment today," Justices Ketanji Brown Jackon and Sonia Sotomayor wrote in their dissent. The justices said the migrants face being wrenched from family and returning to potential danger in their native countries -- or opting to stay and risking imminent removal. "At a minimum, granting the stay would facilitate needless human suffering before the courts have reached a final judgment regarding the legal arguments at issue, while denying the government's application would not have anything close to that kind of practical impact," Jackson said. None of the other justices gave reasons for their decision, and the court was not required to make the vote public. The district court that barred the administration from revoking the migrants' status had argued that it was unlawfully applying a fast-track deportation procedure aimed at illegal immigrants to non-citizens protected by government programs. At the Supreme Court, Justice Department lawyers said the "district court has nullified one of the administration's most consequential immigration policy decisions" by issuing the stay. The high court's decision means the Trump administration can go ahead with its policy change, even as the litigation on the merits plays out in lower courts. Trump campaigned for the White House on a pledge to deport millions of undocumented migrants, evoking an "invasion" of the United States by hordes of foreign criminals. Among other measures, he invoked an obscure wartime law to fly more than 200 alleged Venezuelan gang members to a prison in El Salvador. But his program of mass deportations has been thwarted or restricted by numerous court rulings, including from the Supreme Court and notably on the grounds that those targeted should be able to assert their due process rights. And the administration has been berated over its efforts to restrict immigration from poor countries with human rights concerns like Afghanistan and Haiti, while accepting white South African refugees amid baseless claims that they face "genocide." The Trump administration systematically accuses judges who oppose his immigration decisions of plundering his presidential national security powers.
France 24
17 hours ago
- France 24
Rivals neck-and-neck ahead of Poland's 'clash of civilisations' vote
Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, faces off against right-leaning Karol Nawrocki, 42, in a runoff vote some analysts have described as a "clash of civilisations". Latest opinion polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the margin of error. A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for Poland's government, which has been in a political deadlock with the current president. It could also mean significant changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and an easing of Poland's near-total ban on abortion. A win for Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, could undermine Poland's steadfast support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia. Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Analysts say a Nawrocki victory could also lead to fresh parliamentary elections in the country of 38 million people, which has been one of Europe's best economic performers. Given the narrow polling margins, the result of the election may not be known until Monday. "I would be cautious about popping the champagne on Sunday evening," said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political expert. Tens of thousands of supporters took part in rival rallies for both candidates on May 25, a week before the runoff. Counting on turnout At one of his last campaign events, Trzaskowski called for full mobilisation among his supporters, recalling the record turnout of over 74 percent in the 2023 general election that brought the centrists to power. "If participation is as high as in 2023... we will win these presidential elections," Trzaskowski said Friday in the northern town of Chojnice. He said there would be "chaos" with Nawrocki as president. Nawrocki for his part used his last campaign hours to leave flowers at a monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II. "It was a genocide against the Polish people," he said, adding: "I will be the president of your future. The past and the future can be reunited." Poland, a staunch Ukraine ally since Russia's invasion, wants Kyiv to admit responsibility for the Volyn massacres, in which around 100,000 Poles died between 1943 and 1945. Far-right voters The election's final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters to come out and vote and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki. Far-right candidates fared better than expected in the first round of the election on May 18, getting more than 21 percent of the vote -- and leaving Nawrocki a larger pool of votes to draw upon. Trzaskowski won that round by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki. Materska-Sosnowska called the election "a real clash of civilisations", pointing to major policy differences between the candidates on issues including abortion or LGBTQ rights. The job of Polish president is sometimes dismissed as a ceremonial post, but it comes with crucial veto power over legislation. And that has often stymied Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief whose centrist Civic Coalition (KO) has clashed on multiple fronts with conservative President Andrzej Duda since it came to power in 2023. The election campaign saw Nawrocki mired in a few scandals. While arguing against a property tax, he claimed to own just one flat. Later it was revealed he had acquired a second one in a convoluted deal with an elderly man. A bombshell news report also alleged he had arranged prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard.
