Tariffs Will Make Fed Late on Rates, Dudley Says
Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, says the US-China tariff pause does not solve the Fed's problems. Dudley says the Fed needs more information and will likely be late on cutting interest rates. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Xi Plays Long Game on US-China Trade as Trump Seeks Quick Wins
(Bloomberg) — While Donald Trump hailed the outcome of trade talks in London, Xi Jinping walked away with an understated strategic gain: a negotiating process that buys China time and helps defuse the threat of more harmful tariffs and technology curbs. Shuttered NY College Has Alumni Fighting Over Its Future Trump's Military Parade Has Washington Bracing for Tanks and Weaponry NYC Renters Brace for Price Hikes After Broker-Fee Ban NY Long Island Rail Service Resumes After Grand Central Fire Do World's Fairs Still Matter? Shortly after two days of negotiations wrapped, Trump declared Wednesday on social media that a deal had been 'DONE' to restore the flow of critical magnets from China, and pledged to lift curbs on student visas. Hours earlier, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed Washington would unwind its recent tech curbs, if niche metals essential to US auto and defense firms now flowed fast enough. China's focus was very different. A People's Daily commentary on Thursday — Beijing's most substantial comments so far on the talks — made no mention of export controls. Instead, the Communist Party mouthpiece touted an 'institutional guarantee' established in Geneva for the two sides to bridge differences via a 'consultation mechanism.' In a long-awaited leaders' call before the London negotiations, Xi told Trump the importance of using this channel, it added. The contrast illustrates a disconnect in how the world's biggest economies want to manage their trade dispute, and broader rollercoaster relationship. While Trump seeks quick deals done directly with top leaders, Xi favors a framework led by his lieutenants that wards against being blindsided. Such haggling could drag on for years, with the 'Phase One' deal from the first trade war taking most of Trump's first term. 'Xi is playing a longer game on US-China trade. His time in office is simply much longer than Trump's,' said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Research. 'That's not to say there's never any short-term thinking, but the lack of term limits presents very different incentives than for Trump.' While slow-walking negotiations allows China the chance to assess how hard a bargain Trump drives with other nations, the lingering uncertainty is bad for business, he added. Xi showed last week he can be flexible, getting on the phone with Trump as ties spiraled, breaking from the protocol to set up such an interaction. In the Biden era, then National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi would huddle in foreign locations for days before their leaders spoke directly, managing outcomes and expectations. While the Geneva talks last month wrapped with an identical US-China statement, suggesting a degree of alignment, that accord quickly fell apart over US claims China reneged on a promise to release shipments of rare earths. Beijing says it always intended to keep in place a permit process, which American companies complained moved so slowly some factories were forced to pause production. The lack of a detailed read out from either side this time around has left much in doubt, including on what Beijing committed to on the export of niche metals used in everything from fighter jets to electric vehicles. Lutnick told CNBC on Wednesday that China was going to approve 'all applications for magnets from the United States companies right away' — a sweeping claim that appeared to leave plenty of room for disappointment. Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yadong pledged his country would 'fully consider the reasonable needs and concerns of all countries in the civilian sector,' at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Thursday, adding that approval work was being strengthened. 'The Chinese incentive is also to keep cards close to their chest, and not make a lot of proclamations about what they have or have not committed to,' said Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at Gavekal. 'There is a lot of leeway for them within the whole export licensing regime.' One approach could be to restart enough export licenses so commercial buyers aren't stymied, but not so much that firms can stockpile, thus blunting Beijing's future leverage, he added. Adding to the fuzziness, Trump declared on social media that China now faces a 55% charge, a number that appears to include levies introduced during his first presidency. It also combines a 10% baseline duty imposed by Trump and a 20% tax tied to fentanyl trafficking — an area where Beijing was seen as having room to negotiate if it stepped up scrutiny of its companies. Lutnick cast doubt on that, and raised questions about the nature of future negotiations, saying that tariffs on China would 'definitely' stick at their current level. That suggests a 90-day pause set to expire in August on Trump's blanket 145% rate was now irrelevant. Such a position also dilutes the incentive for Beijing to offer concessions in future trade talks, if tariffs can't budge. While China has felt the pain from US levies, with exports to the world's largest economy plunging 34% in May, Trump appears to be in the bigger hurry to get a deal. His administration is facing a self-imposed July 9 deadline to either strike pacts with dozens of global trading partners or reimpose sweeping tariffs. In a sign of the Republican leader's growing impatience, he warned Wednesday that he will soon send letters to countries saying, 'this is the deal, you can take it or leave it.' Exemplifying that willingness to keep things moving, Trump's team in a rare move this week put export controls on the negotiating table — previously, such tools have been justified with national security concerns, and were largely off limits. Watering down that rationale could open the door to more cooperation, and advance Trump's stated goal to 'open up China to American trade.' Still, China is unlikely to agree to large purchases of goods that compete in areas where Beijing is looking to build self sufficiency and nurture its own national champions. Rebalancing their economies, a concept touted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, could involve attracting more Chinese investment into the US. Policy whiplash by the Trump administration might deter many Chinese companies from pouring money into the US economy, even if Xi were to encourage them to do so. Addressing these issues will take time, presumably requiring long discussions using the mechanism that China and US included in what Beijing called their 'hard won' agreement. 'Some people say that the result of the London talks was just a framework,' said Zhu Junwei, a former researcher in the People's Liberation Army who is now director of American research at Grandview Institution in Beijing. 'It's better to have a framework than have nothing.' —With assistance from Jing Li and Lucille Liu. American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years The Spying Scandal Rocking the World of HR Software US Tariffs Threaten to Derail Vietnam's Historic Industrial Boom The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slide ahead of fresh inflation data, as Trump renews tariff threat
US stock futures pulled back on Thursday ahead of a fresh batch of inflation data, as President Trump renewed his threat to impose "take it or leave it" tariffs on trading partners. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell roughly 0.6%, or over 250 points, as component Boeing (BA) slumped in the wake of a deadly plane crash in India. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) dropped 0.5%, while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also moved 0.5% lower. Stocks are staying downbeat after the S&P 500 (^GSPC) snapped this week's run of wins, as investors add growing tensions in the Middle East to worries over Trump's trade policy, including the fragility of the US-China detente. For now the spotlight is on the May reading on wholesale inflation due later, after its consumer counterpart showed an easing in price pressures in the wake of Trump's "reciprocal" tariff hikes in April. Further hints that tariffs are sparing inflation could put the Federal Reserve in a tight spot ahead of its policy meeting next week. Bets on interest-rate cuts this year have mounted, but analysts expect officials to maintain their wait-and-see approach to economic data and policy decisions. While investor focus is shifting back to the Fed, Wall Street is still closely following the latest twists and turns in Trump's tariff policy in the hunt for clarity. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs US trading partners will get letters within a week or two to set their unilateral tariff rates, Trump reiterated on Wednesday, renewing the threat of no-deal hikes. 'At a certain point, we're just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it,' the president said at the Kennedy Center in Washington. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress it's "highly likely" that countries in trade negotiations with the US will see an extension of the 90-day tariff pause, currently set to expire July 9. Chime is set to debut on the Nasdaq later today under the ticker symbol CHYM. The digital bank raised $864 million in its IPO, and priced shares at $27 each for a valuation of $11.6 billion. Chime's entrance in the public markets has been viewed as another indicator of whether the IPO market is thawing after a freeze due to tariff-induced uncertainty. Other recent go-publics, like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave (CRWV), saw massive rallies after their IPOs. As my colleague Josh Schafer wrote yesterday, the largest tech stocks are once again leading the market higher, and that enthusiasm has trickled down to newly issued public offerings. In a June 9 research report, Carson Group associate portfolio manager Blake Anderson found that tech IPOs have been outperforming non-tech IPOs, with shares tied to tech IPOs rising an average of 108% from their deal price. Beyond Chime, other closely watched IPO hopefuls in the pipeline include crypto exchange Gemini; buy now, pay later firm Klarna ( AI chipmaker Cerebras ( and medical supplies company Medline. Read more here about the details of Chime's IPO. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. President Trump's Truth Social posts aren't moving markets like they used to, notes Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer. Stocks barely budged as he posted on Wednesday that a US-China deal was "done" — something that would have swung markets around a month earlier. Instead, stocks found their direction from economic data, Josh reports: Read more here from today's Morning Brief. The dollar (DX=F) fell further on Thursday as concerns grew about US tariffs after President Trump said he would soon tell trading partners about unilateral levies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Boeing stock fell on Thursday by 8% in premarket trading after an Air India aircraft carrying over 200 people crashed minutes after taking off from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad. Aviation tracking site Flightradar24 said the plane was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, one of the most modern passenger aircraft in service. Air India confirmed the plane, which was headed to Gatwick Airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area near the airport, but has not specified if there are any fatalities. It is still not clear what caused the crash. According to Reuters, Boeing confirmed it was aware of the crash and was working to gather more information. The news comes as the planemaker is trying to rebuild trust relating to the safety of its jets and increase production under new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Orthberg. "There's revised fears of the problems that plagued Boeing aircraft and Boeing itself in recent years," said Chris Beauchamp, analyst at IG Group. Economic data: Producer Price Index (May); Initial jobless claims (week ending June 7) Continuing claims (week ending May 31) Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Lovesac (LOVE), RH (RH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Boeing stock slides after plane crashes in India The $11 trillion gap in costing Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill Gundlach: 'Reckoning is coming' for US debt Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within weeks Americans flunk on retirement literacy. Here's why it matters. Nvidia, Samsung to take stakes in robot AI startup Skild US long-dated debt faces crucial test in $22 billion auction Oracle stock jumps as AI boosts revenue forecast Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Oracle (ORCL) stock rose 8% in premarket trading on Thursday after the tech company raised its annual forecast, driven by demand for its AI related cloud services. "Oracle's once-stodgy image levels up to 'cloud-native mage,' and the competitive map now looks less like a classic three-player real time strategy and more like a battle-royale with everyone dropping in, looking for compute loot", said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Running Point Capital Advisors. GameStop (GME) shares slumped on Thursday by 11% after announcing a convertible notes offering. The press release said: "GameStop intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including making investments in a manner consistent with GameStop's Investment Policy and potential acquisitions." Boeing (BA) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after a plane crashed in India, with more than 200 people on board, near the airport in the country's western city of Ahmedabad. The plane, which was headed to Gatwick airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area. Oil prices pulled back early Thursday morning, reversing earlier overnight gains as traders assessed a US decision to pull some diplomats out of the Middle East. The decision to reduce staffing in Iraq came after Iran threatened to hit US assets in the region ahead of its talks with the US over nuclear-related activity. Brent crude futures fell to under $69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded below $68 a barrel — both down around 1%. Prices jumped over 4% on Wednesday amid reports of a potential evacuation. Reuters reports: Read more here. Gold (GC=F) rose for a second day in a row as tensions in the Middle East, coupled with Trump's claims of upcoming unilateral tariffs, pushed risk-averse investors toward the haven commodity. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Chime is set to debut on the Nasdaq later today under the ticker symbol CHYM. The digital bank raised $864 million in its IPO, and priced shares at $27 each for a valuation of $11.6 billion. Chime's entrance in the public markets has been viewed as another indicator of whether the IPO market is thawing after a freeze due to tariff-induced uncertainty. Other recent go-publics, like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave (CRWV), saw massive rallies after their IPOs. As my colleague Josh Schafer wrote yesterday, the largest tech stocks are once again leading the market higher, and that enthusiasm has trickled down to newly issued public offerings. In a June 9 research report, Carson Group associate portfolio manager Blake Anderson found that tech IPOs have been outperforming non-tech IPOs, with shares tied to tech IPOs rising an average of 108% from their deal price. Beyond Chime, other closely watched IPO hopefuls in the pipeline include crypto exchange Gemini; buy now, pay later firm Klarna ( AI chipmaker Cerebras ( and medical supplies company Medline. Read more here about the details of Chime's IPO. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. President Trump's Truth Social posts aren't moving markets like they used to, notes Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer. Stocks barely budged as he posted on Wednesday that a US-China deal was "done" — something that would have swung markets around a month earlier. Instead, stocks found their direction from economic data, Josh reports: Read more here from today's Morning Brief. The dollar (DX=F) fell further on Thursday as concerns grew about US tariffs after President Trump said he would soon tell trading partners about unilateral levies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Boeing stock fell on Thursday by 8% in premarket trading after an Air India aircraft carrying over 200 people crashed minutes after taking off from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad. Aviation tracking site Flightradar24 said the plane was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, one of the most modern passenger aircraft in service. Air India confirmed the plane, which was headed to Gatwick Airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area near the airport, but has not specified if there are any fatalities. It is still not clear what caused the crash. According to Reuters, Boeing confirmed it was aware of the crash and was working to gather more information. The news comes as the planemaker is trying to rebuild trust relating to the safety of its jets and increase production under new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Orthberg. "There's revised fears of the problems that plagued Boeing aircraft and Boeing itself in recent years," said Chris Beauchamp, analyst at IG Group. Economic data: Producer Price Index (May); Initial jobless claims (week ending June 7) Continuing claims (week ending May 31) Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Lovesac (LOVE), RH (RH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Boeing stock slides after plane crashes in India The $11 trillion gap in costing Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill Gundlach: 'Reckoning is coming' for US debt Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within weeks Americans flunk on retirement literacy. Here's why it matters. Nvidia, Samsung to take stakes in robot AI startup Skild US long-dated debt faces crucial test in $22 billion auction Oracle stock jumps as AI boosts revenue forecast Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Oracle (ORCL) stock rose 8% in premarket trading on Thursday after the tech company raised its annual forecast, driven by demand for its AI related cloud services. "Oracle's once-stodgy image levels up to 'cloud-native mage,' and the competitive map now looks less like a classic three-player real time strategy and more like a battle-royale with everyone dropping in, looking for compute loot", said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Running Point Capital Advisors. GameStop (GME) shares slumped on Thursday by 11% after announcing a convertible notes offering. The press release said: "GameStop intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including making investments in a manner consistent with GameStop's Investment Policy and potential acquisitions." Boeing (BA) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after a plane crashed in India, with more than 200 people on board, near the airport in the country's western city of Ahmedabad. The plane, which was headed to Gatwick airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area. Oil prices pulled back early Thursday morning, reversing earlier overnight gains as traders assessed a US decision to pull some diplomats out of the Middle East. The decision to reduce staffing in Iraq came after Iran threatened to hit US assets in the region ahead of its talks with the US over nuclear-related activity. Brent crude futures fell to under $69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded below $68 a barrel — both down around 1%. Prices jumped over 4% on Wednesday amid reports of a potential evacuation. Reuters reports: Read more here. Gold (GC=F) rose for a second day in a row as tensions in the Middle East, coupled with Trump's claims of upcoming unilateral tariffs, pushed risk-averse investors toward the haven commodity. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
37 minutes ago
- Business Insider
New economic data has reignited Trump's fight with the Fed over cutting interest rates
Hello. An Air India Boeing 787 bound for London crashed soon after takeoff from the city of Ahmedabad, India, this morning. More than 240 people were on board the plane, according to India's Directorate General of Civil Aviation. We are following this developing story here. In today's newsletter, new economic data is reinvigorating the administration's fight with the Fed to cut interest rates. What's on deck Markets: Former Goldman Sachs interns shared advice they'd give to the bank's newest crop. Tech: We picked 10 exciting AI agent startups from Y Combinator's spring batch. But first, what inflation? If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. The big story A call for cutsMay's consumer price index report rose only 2.4% compared to last year, a lower-than-expected bump that had the Trump administration calling for interest-rate cuts again. Economists predicted a 2.5% rise in inflation. Shelter, which has been a bit of a mess since the COVID pandemic, was also identified as the "primary factor" in the increase in inflation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Finally, core CPI, which doesn't include more volatile prices, rose only 0.1% compared to a 0.3% rise expectation. In short, it was a good day for anyone saying inflation is no longer a problem. Which brings me to JD Vance. The vice president bashed the Federal Reserve, posting on X that the central bank's refusal to cut rates is " monetary malpractice," writes BI's Jennifer Sor. Vance took a page out of his boss's playbook. Last week, President Donald Trump, emboldened by weak jobs data from ADP, took a shot at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's inaction. Of course, one key issue giving Powell pause is Trump's own doing. The president's tariffs are expected by many to drive inflation, forcing the Fed to reconsider cutting rates despite prices moving in the right direction. At the same time, Powell has previously said he can only work with the hard data when making rate-cut decisions. And if that remains the case, the numbers don't yet show tariffs being a problem. May's CPI report didn't indicate a major impact from tariffs. Prices fell last month for apparel, furniture, and cars despite those areas being viewed as potential victims of Trump's trade policies. For the first time this year, Americans are feeling less anxious about rising prices, writes BI's Christine Ji. Consumer sentiment might not seem important, but it is. The gap between the hard economic data and how consumers actually feel about the economy has been noticeable, as Jennifer and Christine have previously covered. (Granted, not everyone is feeling good. Two recent Fed reports showed small-business owners' pain and uncertainty over tariffs.) Ultimately, the Fed doesn't have to answer to Trump or the American people. Its focus is on keeping unemployment and inflation low. And the market doesn't see anyone forcing the Fed's hand yet. CME FedWatch has the probability of rates remaining unchanged next week at almost 100%. 3 things in markets 1. Internship advice from Goldman Sachs insiders. Three former Goldman interns who are now an associate, a VP, and a partner shared with BI words of wisdom for the firm's new class of 2,600 summer interns. Here's what they wish they had known at that age. 2. Avala Global's inflection point. In 2022, former Viking Global star Divya Nettimi founded Avala Global, becoming the first billion-dollar launch run by a woman. The firm has seen good performance and significant staff turnover. As it approaches its third anniversary, Nettimi told BI she believes Avala is exactly where it should be. 3. Apollo ditches the PE recruiting practice that angered Jamie Dimon. This year, Marc Rowan's $785 billion asset manager won't be interviewing new analysts for jobs that start in 2027. The memo came just days after JPMorgan said it'd fire any first-year bankers with a future-dated job. 3 things in tech 1. Apple finally explains why the new Siri is still M.I.A. At Apple's 2024 WWDC conference, the company introduced an AI-powered Siri, which was met with much fanfare. A year later, the new-and-improved Siri still isn't here. Recently, Apple exec Craig Federighi has been speaking candidly about the delay. TLDR: Apple wants to get it right. 2. Microsoft is working on a version of its AI Copilot for the Pentagon. In a recent blog written for government customers, the tech giant said the Microsoft 365 Copilot for DoD environments would be available as soon as this summer, writes BI's Ashley Stewart. It's unclear if this is the mystery customer that's close to adding one million Copilot users, but regardless, the deal would be a major win for Microsoft. 3. Y Combinator asked for AI agent startups. The startup community delivered. Of the 144 startups in YC's spring accelerator program, 70 build AI agents. BI dug through the cohort to find 10 of the most interesting agentic startups, from teaching an old robot new tricks to helping consumers apply for the best mortgage. 3 things in business 1. Whole Foods x Amazon = one big ol' fam-azon. Amazon is mounting a big reorg to bring the organic grocer, which it bought in 2017, into its core business. Whole Foods corporate staff will move under Amazon's employee programs, including performance reviews and pay structure, per a copy of a company memo obtained by BI's Eugene Kim. Here's the team leading it. 2. Two major breakthroughs in cancer research. At the world's biggest cancer conference, doctors gave standing ovations to two announcements that could change the game on cancer treatment and prevention. One suggested exercise could be a solution. 3. The British can't get enough of Chinese cars. BYD sales are booming in the UK, where there are no tariffs on Chinese EVs. It's a bad sign for Tesla, whose sales are plummeting there, because it shows BYD can quickly snap up market share in a straight fight. In other news Trump said he will set unilateral 'take it or leave it' tariffs on trading partners in the next two weeks. The rise of Ozempic has Americans chasing dubious muscle-building miracles. The man behind Netflix's 'Dept. Q' thinks the future of entertainment is … games. Victoria's Secret is cutting back on deals and discounts as tariffs hit its business. Disney and Universal say these images show how the AI tool Midjourney steals their famous characters. Central banks just can't get enough of gold. Sullivan & Cromwell's Trump team makes courtroom debut in effort to clear his 34-count criminal conviction. People are using their birth charts to figure out where to live. I was skeptical until I tried it. A consultant who helps law firms decide which software to buy explains why legal tech is in trouble. What's happening today Bilderberg Meeting between US and European political and business leaders is held in Stockholm. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.
