Analysis: A weakened Iran has few options for striking back after Israel's blows
In the face of Israel's far-reaching strikes Friday, it's not clear that Iran – its longtime foe – has the capacity to muster the furious response that might be expected.
Israel has once again demonstrated it is the pre-eminent military and intelligence power in the Middle East, heedless to civilian casualties and the diplomatic impact of its actions on its allies.
As with their remarkable operation to decapitate their northern opponent – the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah – the overnight operation has the hallmarks of months or even years of preparation. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have been faced with using this capability now, or losing it, as diplomacy kicked in during a sixth round of nuclear talks scheduled for this weekend between the United States and Iran in Oman.
Iran is now left counting its far-reaching wounds. Images from across Tehran show apartment blocks hit, it seems, in specific rooms – suggesting the pinpoint targeting of individuals, likely through tracking cellphones. Iran has lost its top three active-duty commanders, as well as a leading voice in nuclear talks, overnight, but as the dust clears it may emerge more have been hit, and the survivors will likely be concerned they, too, could still be targeted.
This will slow and complicate any Iranian response. As will the damage the Iranians continue to sustain. A raid by Israel in October took out a large tranche of Iran's air defenses. Israel's military said Friday that it had destroyed dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers in strikes by fighter jets on aerial defense arrays in western Iran. The Iranian atomic energy agency confirmed that the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz had also been damaged, but it's not yet clear to what extent.
In the days ahead, Israel's superior intelligence apparatus will search for targets of opportunity - commanders and equipment changing location, or the movement of materiel to facilitate a response – and continue to strike.
Such a wide-ranging assault was possible only because Hezbollah – Iran's second-strike capability if their nuclear apparatus was hit - had been dismantled over a ruthless but effective months-long campaign last summer. This is beginning to look like a months-long Israeli plan to remove a regional threat.
The risks remain high. Iran could now try to race for the nuclear bomb. But its faltering defenses and clear, humiliating infiltration by Israel's intelligence, make that a long shot. Rushing to build a nuclear weapon is no simple task, especially under fire, with your key leadership at risk of pinpoint strikes. Netanyahu may have calculated that the risk of an Iranian nuclear breakout was depleted, and manageable with yet more military might.
There is another victim of the overnight barrage: the Trump administration's standing as a geopolitical power.
There may be suggestions from Trump advocates in the hours ahead that the Israeli assault was part of a wider masterplan to weaken Iran ahead of more diplomacy. But, in reality, a simpler truth is revealed: Israel had no trust in the United States to implement a deal with Iran that would remove its nuclear ambitions.
Despite public pleading by US President Donald Trump for it to hold off, Israel went ahead with the most significant attack on Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israel neither cared for or feared Trump's response, and is apparently prepared to risk fighting on without US support.
That is perhaps another indictment of Iran's ability to respond now. Israel is less bothered by what it can do. Israel's operation against Hezbollah provides reason for it to be confident (but also should stir anxieties about hubris and overreach). Israel has likely hit the vast majority of its key targets already, to maximize the advantage of surprise, and the extent of that damage will take days to be revealed.
What of proliferation now? There is a lot that we do not know about Iran's nuclear program. Israel may have known a lot more. But we are now in a binary moment where the strikes on the Natanz facility may either herald its end, or its race to completion – in the form of a nuclear weapon. Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is peaceful, but the United Nations' nuclear watchdog on Thursday declared it in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, prompting Tehran to promise escalatory action.
In the moment of its greatest weakness, the Islamic Republic will struggle to project the regional swagger it has maintained for decades. It may feel it is unable to grasp diplomacy with the US as its way out, without looking even weaker. It appears unable to hit Israel back proportionately, so may look to strike asymmetrically, if possible.
In the immediate confusion, one basic fact is clear: Israel is acting in the Middle East now unimpeded by allies, unafraid of wider risks, and - at times brutally - seeking to alter regional dynamics for decades to come.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Wall Street Journal
37 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Jordan Reopens Airspace to Civilian Aviation
According to Jordanian state media, the country's authorities have reopened its airspace to civilian aviation. In the wake of Israel's strikes on Iran, Jordanian civil aviation authorities said they would temporarily close the country's airspace and suspended all air traffic.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Bombardment of civilian areas crosses ‘red line', Israel tells Iran
Israel's defence minister said that Iran crossed 'red lines' on Friday when its missiles targeted civilian areas. Israelis were told they could leave bomb shelters late on Friday night after a sustained missile barrage from Iran forced civilians into bunkers. The Home Front Command published advice lifting an order to shelter in place but warned civilians should remain near protected spaces. At least one Iranian missile hit central Tel Aviv, penetrating the Iron Dome defence system. The strike was considered to be an escalation, the first time Iran had targeted a civilian centre. 'Iran has crossed red lines by daring to fire missiles at civilian population centres in Israel,' Israel Katz said in a statement. 'We will continue to defend the citizens of Israel and ensure that the ayatollah regime pays a very heavy price for its heinous actions.' Israelis were earlier told to brace for retaliation after the Israel Defense Forces's overnight strikes on Tehran's nuclear sites and military leadership. Queues formed at supermarkets as people stocked up on food, bottled water and alcohol in preparation for the expected bombardment. Other non-essential shops stayed closed. Schools have also been shuttered and most public transport suspended as Mr Katz warned that the country was now in a 'special state of emergency'. On what is usually the busiest day of the week, roads were largely empty and few people were seen on Tel Aviv's beaches after warnings to avoid public spaces. Some were, however, willing to take the risk. Lior and Noa Greenberg were at the dog beach with their poodle. 'We have a dog so we really have to go out,' Lior said. 'And we are being smart. We live close by but are not panicking. As far as we understand, we will know if we need to panic but we are not there yet.' The close-down measures began earlier on Friday when the military announced that 'Iran may carry out attacks against the Israeli population, against Israeli civilians', adding: 'There are special guidelines being updated constantly through the Home Front Command for Israeli civilians.' In contrast to last October's Iranian strikes, the Home Front Command has warned of a prolonged series of attacks. It told the Israeli public: 'During this campaign, we anticipate widespread alerts. It is crucial that you take shelter in the best way possible, whether in your private home or in public spaces – preferably in a safe room, shelter, or protected space approved by the Home Front Command. 'If there are no protected spaces near you, you must enter a stairway or an interior room.' Eight months ago, there was no talk of a 'campaign' of strikes in the army's warnings, as both sides were seen to have little interest in escalating the situation. Despite the alarming messaging, some thought it was important to keep life as normal as possible. At the Cafe Alma in Jaffa, it was still hard to find a table as it approached lunchtime. 'We are waiting to hear instructions but we have to keep living,' said Liat Dudman, who lives in the same street. 'We had a bit of a panic this morning but understand that the Home Front Command said there is no need to stay inside now so we just have to stay calm and live a little. 'We're not being reckless, we are within 12 minutes of reaching home, which is what we understand we need with the missiles from Iran, but this could be a long campaign ahead of us if we don't find a way to manage.' Up to 100,000 people had been expected to attend Tel Aviv's Pride Festival, one of the world's largest with special guest Caitlyn Jenner due to make an appearance. It has now been cancelled. Hospitals went into emergency mode and Beilinson, one of the biggest, opened its underground facilities and shielded complexes in case of any strikes. For Yousef Deek, one of many lining up with a trolley full of food for his family in the supermarket in Jaffa's Jerusalem Boulevard, the situation is one Israelis simply have to accept. 'This doesn't seem like it will pass quickly so we just have to get comfortable and make the best of things,' he said. 'We are all too used to war here so there is no choice but to continue to live. This time is no different.'
New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
Live Updates: Israel and Iran Trade Strikes as Conflict Enters 2nd Day
Iran's senior leaders had been planning for more than a week for an Israeli attack should nuclear talks with the United States fail. But they made one enormous miscalculation. They never expected Israel to strike before another round of talks that had been scheduled for this coming Sunday in Oman, officials close to Iran's leadership said on Friday. They dismissed reports that an attack was imminent as Israeli propaganda meant to pressure Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program in those talks. Perhaps because of that complacency, precautions that had been planned were ignored, the officials said. This account of how Iranian officials were preparing before Israel conducted widespread attacks across their country on Friday, and how they reacted in the aftermath, is based on interviews with half a dozen senior Iranian officials and two members of the Revolutionary Guards. They all asked not to be named to discuss sensitive information. Officials said that the night of Israel's attack, senior military commanders did not shelter in safe houses and instead stayed in their own homes, a fateful decision. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace unit, and his senior staff ignored a directive against congregating in one location. They held an emergency war meeting at a military base in Tehran and were killed when Israel struck the base. By Friday evening, the government was just beginning to grasp the extent of damage from Israel's military campaign that began in the early hours of the day and struck at least 15 locations across Iran, including in Isfahan, Tabriz, Ilam, Lorestan, Borujerd, Qom, Arak, Urmia, Ghasre Shirin, Kermanshah, Hamedan and Shiraz, four Iranian officials said. Israel had taken out much of Iran's defense capability, destroying radars and air defenses; crippled its access to its arsenal of ballistic missiles; and wiped out senior figures in the military chain of command. In addition, the aboveground part of a major nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz was severely damaged. In private text messages shared with The New York Times, some officials were angrily asking one another, 'Where is our air defense?' and 'How can Israel come and attack anything it wants, kill our top commanders, and we are incapable of stopping it?' They also questioned the major intelligence and defense failures that had led to Iran's inability to see the attacks coming, and the resulting damage. Image After the sound of multiple explosions, people gathered on top of a hill watching the smoke in Tehran. Credit... Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times 'Israel's attack completely caught the leadership by surprise, especially the killing of the top military figures and nuclear scientists. It also exposed our lack of proper air defense and their ability to bombard our critical sites and military bases with no resistance,' Hamid Hosseini, a member of the country's Chamber of Commerce's energy committee, said in a telephone interview from Tehran. Mr. Hosseini, who is close to the government, said Israel's apparent infiltration of Iran's security and military apparatus had also shocked officials. Israel has conducted covert operations in Iran against military and nuclear targets and carried out targeted assassinations against nuclear scientists for decades as part of its shadow war with Iran, but Friday's multipronged and complex attack involving fighter jets and covert operatives who had smuggled missile parts and drones into the country suggested a new level of access and capability. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been moved to an undisclosed safe location where he remained in contact with remaining top military officials, said in a televised speech that Israel had, with its attacks, declared war on Iran. As he spoke, vowing revenge and punishment, Iran launched several waves of missile attacks on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. 'They should not think they attacked and it is over,' Mr. Khamenei said. 'No, they started it. They started the war. We will not allow them to escape from this crime unharmed.' Earlier Friday morning, Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a 23-person council responsible for national security decisions, held an emergency meeting to discuss how the country should respond. In the meeting, Mr. Khamenei said he wanted revenge but did not want to act hastily, according to two officials familiar with the discussions. Divisions emerged on when and how Iran should respond, and whether it could sustain a prolonged war with Israel that could also drag in the United States, given how badly its defense and missile capabilities were damaged. One official said in the meeting that if Israel responded by attacking Iran's infrastructure or water and energy plants, it could lead to protests or riots. A member of the Revolutionary Guards briefed on the meeting said that officials understood that Mr. Khamenei faced a pivotal moment in his nearly 40 years in power: He had to decide between acting, and risking an all-out war that could end his rule, or retreating, which would be interpreted domestically and internationally as defeat. 'Khamanei faces no good options,' said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of the International Crisis Group. 'If he escalates, he risks inviting a more devastating Israeli attack that the U.S. could join. If he doesn't, he risks hollowing out his regime or losing power.' Ultimately, Mr. Khamenei ordered Iran's military to fire on Israel. Initially, the plan was to launch up to 1,000 ballistic missiles on Israel to overwhelm its air defense and ensure maximum damage, according to two members of the Guards. But Israel's strikes on missile bases had made it impossible to move missiles quickly from storage and place them on launchpads, they added. Image A projectile hit buildings as the Israeli Iron Dome air-defense system intercepted missiles over Tel Aviv. Credit... Leo Correa/Associated Press In the end, Iran could only muster about 100 missiles in its first waves of attacks. At least seven sites were struck around Tel Aviv, killing one person and injuring at least 20 more, and damaging residential buildings. On Friday, after Israeli attacks had somewhat subsided for part of the day, Iran's military hurried to repair some of its damaged air defenses and install new ones, according to officials. Iran's airspace remained closed with flights grounded and airports closed. Some residents of Tehran spent Friday, a holiday, waiting in gas station lines to fill up their vehicles' tanks and flocking to grocery stores to stock up on essentials like bread, canned food and bottled water. Many families gathered in parks late into the night, spreading blankets and picnics on the grass, and said in telephone interviews they feared remaining indoors after Israel had struck residential buildings in various neighborhoods targeting scientists and military and government officials. Mehrdad, 35, who did not want his last name used because of fears for his safety, shared a video of his kitchen wall and windows destroyed when an Israeli missile struck the high-rise next door in his upscale neighborhood in northern Tehran. He said that he had been lucky to have been in the bedroom when the attack occurred, but some civilians in the neighborhood, including children, had been injured. In the early hours of Saturday, Israel resumed its attacks on Tehran. Some residents, including Fatemeh Hassani, who lives in the Mirdamad neighborhood, said they heard drones buzzing overhead and nonstop explosion sounds followed by the rat-tat-tat of air defenses firing in eastern and central Tehran. Mahsa, a 42-year-old computer engineer who lives in the capital's north and similarly did not want to give her last name out of fear of her safety, said she and her family were unable to sleep. They not only could hear the booms but also could see traces of fire and smoke from their window. 'We are in the middle of a war, this much is clear to all of us, and we don't know where it will go or how it will end,' she said.
