Susan Collins' Chances of Losing Maine Senate Election, According to Polls
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Susan Collins' chances of being reelected in Maine are improving, according to latest polling.
A new survey shows the Republican Senator's favorability rating has risen compared to previous polls, ahead of the November 2026 midterms.
Why It Matters
Collins, a moderate who spoke out against Donald Trump during his first term, has represented Maine since 1997. The state is politically split because it is also represented by independent Senator Angus King, and Governor Jane Mills, a Democrat. Former vice president Kamala Harris won the state by seven points in 2024 and former President Joe Biden won it by nine points in 2020.
In 2020, when Collins was most recently up for reelection, she beat former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, a Democrat, with 51 percent of the vote. This was a smaller margin than when she won her 2014 reelection with a 37-point margin.
Sen. Susan Collins, R,Maine, questions witness Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., during a Senate Committee on Appropriations subcommittee hearing to examine proposed budget estimates for fiscal year 2026 for the Department...
Sen. Susan Collins, R,Maine, questions witness Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., during a Senate Committee on Appropriations subcommittee hearing to examine proposed budget estimates for fiscal year 2026 for the Department of Health and Human Services, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, May 20, 2025, in Washington. More
AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta
If Collins loses her seat, it will prove more difficult for Republicans who currently control the Senate with a 53 to 47-seat majority.
What To Know
According to a Pan Atlantic Research poll of 840 Maine likely voters, 49 percent of people see Collins favorably, 45 percent unfavorably, making her net favorability +4 percent.
The polling was conducted between May 12 and May 26 with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5 percent.
This is an improvement on previous polling released by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) in April, which showed 71 percent of respondents did not believe Collins should be reelected. That poll also showed only 12 percent of respondents had a favorable view of the Senator, and 58 percent had an unfavorable view.
What People Are Saying
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) during the 2020 cycle told the Hill: "In general, for any senator who's served their state and been out there and talking to the voters and engaging them and working to solve those problems, they're going to be effective with their voters to gain their support."
James Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, previously told Newsweek "there's no question" that a run by Collins would make it more difficult for Democrats to flip the seat.
"Mainers are ticket splitters to a large degree, and even in a polarized climate, many may vote for her and also vote for a D for governor," he said. "She's also generally run well ahead of top of the ticket Republicans, though last time she lost a lot of D and independent support compared to past runs."
Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, told Newsweek in March: "It's a blue state that she can win. But the snag is that group is getting smaller and smaller. Swing voters might not be extinct in Maine, but they are on the endangered species list."
What Happens Next
With over a year to go until the midterms, Collins' popularity and chances of winning her seat are likely to fluctuate depending on her policies and on what other politicians step into the ring in opposition.
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