Florida closes January at No. 9 in ESPN Basketball Power Index
Florida closes January at No. 9 in ESPN Basketball Power Index
Florida continued its climb up the ESPN Basketball Power Index on Thursday, moving up one spot to No. 9 overall through 20 games of the 2024-25 season.
Since Gators Wire last checked in with the BPI on Jan. 24, the Orange and Blue have only played one game — a 30-point win over Georgia in Gainesville. Now 5-2 in SEC play, the Gators are cementing themselves as one of the top teams in the country. A big matchup with BPI No. 5 Tennessee looms on the schedule, but Florida should hold at No. 9 until Saturday.
Florida's BPI is 18.1, further broken down as 9.9 (ninth) on offense and 8.2 (17th) on defense. Compared to last week's numbers — 17.4, 9.5 and 7.8 — UF's offensive rating is up significantly by 0.7 and the defense is also up a good 0.4 on the Index. Those changes are good for a two-spot jump into the top 10 on offense and a five-spot incerase on defense.
Note: The BPI is updated daily; however Gators Wire provides weekly updates so as not to overwhelm fans with constant changes. We took two weeks this time.
'The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,' ESPN explains. 'BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.'
ESPN BPI Projections
ESPN now projects Florida to finish the season with a 24.7-6.3 overall record and an 11.7-6.3 record in conference play — 0.5 more than last week — based on results to date and BPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games. With only conference games left on the schedule, those projections will continue changing by an identical amount.
The Gators have 7.5% odds to win the conference, up 2.2% from two last week. Florida faces the 18th-toughest schedule moving forward with eight Quadrant 1 matchups ahead against SEC programs.
NCAA Tournament Resume
Florida's 18-2 record has the program ranked seventh overall in strength of record, which translates to a No. 2 seed. The Gators continue a slight downward trend in seeding projections, and SEC is to blame. That matchup with Tennessee carries a lot of weight. A loss means falling to a No. 3 seed but a win could mean getting back into the No. 1 conversation.
Florida's overall strength of schedule is now ranked No. 55, down seven spots from a week ago, and its non-conference strength of schedule is down four to No. 119. The Gators are 4-2 in 'quality matchups' (against the top 50 in BPI), with wins over No. 5 Tennessee, No. 30 North Carolina, No. 40 Georgia and No. 26 Texas.
ESPN gives Florida 2.2% odds of winning the NCAA Tournament and 6.2% odds of making it to the championship game. A Final Four appearance (14.1%) or Elite Eight appearance (29.1%) continue to see increased odds, as do the chances of a Sweet 16 (56.1%) and Round of 32 appearance (88.5%).
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