Has your morning coffee got more expensive? Climate change could be to blame

Euronews

18-02-2025

The price of coffee has more than doubled over the last year due to extreme weather.
A combination of higher-than-average rainfall and temperatures in coffee-producing regions caused major problems for farmers in 2024. As a result, coffee has seen some of the steepest price increases - up 103 per cent in the last 12 months.
Scientists have confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record and this trend seems to be continuing in the early months of 2025. Experts say extreme, unpredictable weather events will continue to increase in severity and frequency as global temperatures rise.
Data from supply chain analysts at consultancy firm Inverto indicates that food prices are expected to stay volatile this year as the trend for increased extreme weather continues to hit crops.
Devastating impacts for coffee farmers
A 2023 report from Christian Aid suggested that the world will have to curb its coffee addiction as global warming bites.
As well as increasing prices, the taste and availability will also be affected with knock-on impacts for associated businesses such as coffee shops in Europe.
And there are potentially devastating consequences for farmers who rely on coffee for their livelihoods in countries like Brazil, Ethiopia and Vietnam.
'Small-scale coffee farmers are living on the frontline of the climate crisis, despite having contributed little to the problem of global warming,' says Patrick Watt, chief executive of Christian Aid.
How is coffee being affected by climate change?
Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, disease, droughts and landslides are all putting farmland at risk.
'Our experience is that in a year where the early season rains have been poor or non-existent, coffee flowering has also been grossly poor,' says Mackson Ng'ambi, CEO of Mzuzu Coffee Cooperative in Malawi. 'This is now a frequent recurrence.'
With extreme weather and natural disasters becoming more frequent, coffee growers and other farmers are becoming increasingly vulnerable. Extreme heat across East Asia last year, for example, drove an increase in the price of rice in Japan and vegetables in China.
This is especially true in developing countries, where farmers are often poorly compensated for their produce and the effects of climate change are felt more acutely.
'The impact of climate change on coffee production is in plain sight, including through high levels of coffee leaf rust,' says Yitna Tekaligne, Christian Aid's Ethiopia country manager.
Christian Aid has calculated that these conditions will decrease the amount of land suitable for growing coffee by 54.5 per cent. It will happen even if the global temperature rise is kept within the Paris Agreement's target of no more than 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Brazil and Vietnam provide more than half of the UK's coffee. These two countries are seeing the biggest impacts.
Coffee production itself is contributing to the crisis too. Growing a single kilogram of coffee can produce greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 15.33 kg of carbon dioxide, according to researchers at University College London (UCL).
Changing how coffee is grown, transported and consumed could significantly reduce this footprint.
Businesses too may have to adapt how they source their products in the face of increasing volatility.
"Food manufacturers and retailers should diversify their supply chains and sourcing strategies to reduce overreliance on any one region affected by crop failures," says Katharina Erfort, principal at Inverto.
Will a cup of coffee cost more in the future?
With rising temperatures already impacting the price of a cup of coffee, Mackson argues that this cost should be passed on to consumers.
'The global coffee pricing should take into consideration that farmers are making more effort to maintain a field of coffee and hence increased cost of production,' he says.
'If this is not recognised and informs coffee prices, sadly most growers will abandon coffee farming.'
As more farmers leave the industry, prices are likely to increase even further.
The UK alone drinks 98 million cups of coffee every day - enough to fill more than nine Olympic swimming pools, Christian Aid calculates.
And the coffee industry supports more than 210,000 UK jobs, according to 2017 figures from the British Coffee Association.
What can be done to support coffee farmers?
In its report, Christian Aid called on the UK Government to boost climate finance and cancel 'unjust' historic debts for developing nations.
'To tackle the root causes of the problem, the UK and other wealthy countries need to follow through on their promises and fund support for farmers in poorer countries to grow climate resilient crops and diversify their sources of income,' says Patrick.
A poll commissioned for the report shows almost 70 per cent of UK adults agree the government should do more to reduce the impact of the climate crisis on the country's food supply chain.
Last week the UK's National Preparedness Commission (NPC) warned that the country is not prepared for the scale of risks now facing its food supply. Extreme weather is one of those mounting pressures.
'There is also a need for direct funding that would benefit the small-scale coffee growers, such as access to low-interest financing which is currently not available,' says Mackson.
'If nothing is done, we should forget about coffee in a few years to come.'