Canucks: Nikolaj Ehlers' scoring stock rises as possible replacement for Brock Boeser
Nikolaj Ehlers believes he's a first-line NHL player.
The speedy and quick-striking Winnipeg Jets winger proved that point by letting his play do the talking in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs on a second line with Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti.
The unrestricted free agent also silenced his critics, who had every right to wonder if Ehlers could produce when it mattered most with just 14 career playoff points in 37 games. He responded this spring by striking for five goals in his last five games of the second round.
While the pain of a 2-1 overtime loss to the Dallas Stars on Saturday that kept the Jets from forcing Game 7 home ice in the riveting series will persist, it will eventually subside for Ehlers. And when it does, the reality of his value and options will come into greater focus.
Ehlers, 29, will top a lot of wish lists for a winger would can play at heightened pace, drive the play and finish. The Vancouver Canucks, who had past interest, will be among the suitors because UFA Brock Boeser is going to test the market and there's a sizable top-six roster hole here to fill.
Ehlers had a career-high 63 points (24-39) in 69 games this season and scored at least 20 goals in eight-straight campaigns. However, he has also been injury prone and that has kept him from being that consistent 30-goal guy. He had 28 goals in just 62 games in 2021-22 and 29 in a full season in 2017-18.
Ehlers' expiring salary cap commitment is $6 million annually and CapWages.com predicts a bump to $8.1 million in a six-year deal.
Of course, his production takes us back to another curious Canucks draft decision in 2014. They selected Jake Virtanen sixth overall and passed on William Nylander (eighth) and Ehlers (ninth). And when Ehlers had 25 goals in his second season, and then 29 in his third, the Canucks took notice.
Virtanen would struggle before hitting a career-high 18 goals in 2019-20. This was a Province critique when the Canucks committed to the winger: 'They added size and a budding power forward from Calgary (WHL). Aside from shoulder surgery, he's pure power and speed and those 45 goals (2013-14) look pretty good right now on a team starving for offence. Ranked first in physical play among North American prospects. Huge upside. Hopefully.'
With the Canucks ranked 23rd offensively this season, they not only require bouncebacks from Nils Hoglander and Dakota Joshua, they need another scoring threat. Remove UFAs Boeser and Pius Suter, who had 25 goals apiece, and it's team leader Jake DeBrusk (28) as the lone 20-goal guy. Conor Garland and Kiefer Sherwood had 19 apiece.
The Canucks were also tied for a league-high 14 overtime losses this season and winning half would have vaulted them into the second Western Conference wild-card position. They were also 3-20-5 when trailing after two periods.
The Canucks must also trade for a quality centre to support the struggling Elias Pettersson and concussion-prone Fillip Chytil. They have the assets with the No. 15 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft and plenty of defencemen, but landing a scoring winger will be about dollars and sense.
Boeser, who had 50 points in 75 games this season on an expiring $6.65 million salary cap hit, turned down a five-year, US$40 million extension offer. He could receive more term and money July 1, and according to CapWages, that could be six years at $8.45 million in annual average value.
Boeser could also pivot back to the Canucks, but that seems unlikely with odd management optics of his value at the trade deadline.
Boeser's career output compares favourably to Philadelphia Flyers winger Travis Konecny, 28, who signed an eight-year, $70 million extension last July that carries an $8.75 million annual cap hit.
Even though the salary cap ceiling is rising from $88 million to $95.5 million next season, the Canucks are still saddled by paying those who aren't playing, including the Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout that jumps to $4,766,667. Add extensions for UFA defencemen Derek Forbort and Noah Juulsen — and possibly Suter, if the price is right — and it adds up fast.
The versatile Suter is projected to cash in on a career season and a leap from an expiring two-year, $3.2 million deal to a four-year commitment worth $4.983 million annually on the open market. Factor in new deals for restricted free agents to play support roles here in forwards Aatu Raty, Max Sasson and Arshdeep Bains, and that cap space dwindles.
According to Spotrac.com, the Canucks have 16 players signed and $17,558,333 in salary cap space. A scoring winger and support centre could easily eat up a big chunk of that room.
Here are top free-agent options to wing it without Boeser, (all figures in US dollars):
The stats: Had 24 goals in 69 games. Missed nine with foot injury. Aggravated it April 12. The skinny: The Canucks have kicked the tires before. Fast, feisty and a good finisher.
The stats: Career-high 31 goals in 80 games while winging it with Connor Bedard. The skinny: Canucks scouted him in latter part of season. Versatile. Likely affordable.
The stats: Had 22 goals in 81 games, second in club accuracy (15.4 per cent). The skinny: Versatile. Durable. Good size. Was also on Canucks' radar in the past.
bkuzma@postmedia.com
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