NATO's Indo-Pacific ties risk losing momentum as leaders skip key summit

Japan Times

7 hours ago

NATO's outreach to the Indo-Pacific risks losing momentum, analysts say, as U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and defense demands — as well as his weekend decision to strike Iranian nuclear sites — create a rift with the alliance's partners in the region.
Three leaders of NATO's so-called Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) partner countries, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, have decided to skip a key summit that formally kicked off Tuesday. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese earlier bailed on the event, leaving New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as the sole regional leader attending the gathering.
Senior officials will fill in for the absent leaders, with Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya replacing Ishiba.
Although NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Monday attempted to play down the absences' impact, saying he 'would not read too much into' them, the snubs have highlighted a visible shift in focus from the administration of Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden.
'The optics are poor for NATO,' said Nate Fischler, Asia-Pacific analyst at U.S.-based geopolitics and intelligence firm RANE. 'The absence of three IP4 leaders — especially after Rutte's visit to Japan earlier this year — suggests that NATO's regional outreach is losing substantial momentum under Trump's second term.'
The conspicuous absences, he added, raise 'serious doubts about the coherence of the so-called global NATO vision Washington previously championed.'
According to Gorana Grgic, a senior researcher in Euro-Atlantic Security at ETH Zurich's Center for Security Studies, the cancellations underscore how crucial the Biden administration was in driving cross-regional cooperation, with the wave of nonattendance suggesting 'a cooling of momentum.'
U.S. President Donald Trump gestures toward the press as he greets German Chancellor Friedrich Merz upon arrival at the West Wing of the White House in Washington on June 5. |
AFP-JIJI
The 32-member alliance's ties with the IP4 had expanded dramatically in recent years, particularly as both sides embraced the argument that the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is closely interlinked. This even led to several IP4 countries, including Japan — widely seen as the closest of the partners — upgrading ties to an Individually Tailored Partnership Program in 2023. The move was interpreted as ushering in a new era with NATO.
But under Trump, there has been a 'noticeable reversion to a more transactional and theater-specific view of alliances,' Grgic said, noting that key administration officials 'have made clear distinctions between European and Indo-Pacific allies' responsibilities.'
What's remarkable about the cancellations is that few concrete reasons have been made public.
Lee cited 'domestic priorities' and growing uncertainty in the Middle East, while Foreign Ministry officials in Tokyo pointed to 'various circumstances' when announcing Ishiba's decision.
In Japan's case, experts say Ishiba's move was primarily in response to Trump's decision to strike Iran, as Tokyo seeks to avoid antagonizing either the U.S. or Iran, with which it maintains good relations.
As Sebastian Maslow, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo, puts it, Ishiba's decision illustrates the tough position Japan has found itself in and its attempt to strike a balance between its traditionally close ties to the Middle East and the U.S.
'At the NATO summit, it is likely that criticism of U.S. actions would be voiced,' he said. 'This would have forced Japan to take a clear position, and so far, Ishiba has remained largely silent in response to Trump's military intervention.'
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a news conference in Tokyo on Monday. |
Pool / via REUTERS
But there might also have been other, more pragmatic factors at play, considering that Ishiba only cancelled the trip at the last minute, with diplomatic sources telling The Japan Times that the decision came only after it emerged that Trump might not have time to attend a separate meeting with Rutte and IP4 leaders in The Hague.
'There was a likely perception among IP4 leaders that a joint meeting would either not materialize or risk resulting in political embarrassment, with little in the way of actionable strategic gains,' Fischler said.
The absence of these key leaders now means that the NATO-IP4 summit is 'effectively dead on arrival this year,' he said.
In addition, several IP4 leaders had considered attending the summit partially in the hope of arranging bilateral meetings with Trump to discuss pressing issues such as Washington's unilateral tariffs and its demand on Indo-Pacific allies to hike defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product — a call that has faced stronger resistance in Asia than in Europe.
Trump's insistence on allies' defense spending hikes to 3.5% and potentially as high as the new 5% standard of NATO 'risks breakdown with IP4 partners,' Fischler said, particularly as both Tokyo and Canberra have already publicly rebuked the 3.5% threshold.
Albanese had said Canberra would not be dictated to by its ally, noting that the country was already planning to pour a significant amount of cash into defense coffers.
'What we'll do is we'll determine our defense policy,' Albanese said June 1, noting recent investments and adding that Australia would 'continue to provide for investing in our capability but also investing in our relationships in the region.'
Both Albanese and South Korea's Lee fell short in bids to meet with Trump at last week's Group of Seven summit in Canada after he left the gathering early.
Observers said fears of a replay of those events, absent a firm commitment from Washington to a one-on-one meeting in the Netherlands, ultimately helped push Lee and Albanese to skip the gathering.
'After the G7 episode, where Trump's fitful participation reportedly frustrated several leaders, there is a wariness about investing political capital in uncertain or one-sided engagements,' Grgic said.
A member of the Dutch army patrols ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague on Monday. |
REUTERS
Growing concerns among Indo-Pacific allies that the U.S. is deprioritizing the cross-regional NATO-IP4 track was also likely to have weighed heavily on leaders' minds.
'Without strong U.S. backing, the incentive for IP4 leaders to engage in a summit with limited deliverables for them is comparatively weaker than just a year ago,' Grgic added.
The snubs suggest that IP4 countries may now see NATO as less of a global security forum and more as a Europe-focused alliance susceptible to U.S. domestic politics and demands.
'They still value ties with NATO, but under Trump's leadership, they are deprioritizing it as a platform for meaningful Asia-Pacific engagement,' Fischler said. 'IP4 countries will likely double down on efforts to build ties bilaterally and minilaterally among themselves and also with the Philippines.'
And as NATO focuses more strongly on deterring Russia, how close ties with the IP4 can develop in the Trump era will depend on whether Washington shifts U.S. defense priorities to contain China.
However, given the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, the direction of Washington's strategy is more uncertain than ever, said Maslow.
This, in turn, is likely to benefit Beijing, which might see the collapse of the IP4 meeting as a window of opportunity to push the narrative that the West is fragmented and unreliable, a narrative mainly intended for audiences in Southeast Asia and the Global South.
Strategic incoherence within the transatlantic alliance, particularly as it spills into Indo-Pacific policy, reduces the likelihood of coordinated pushback against China's assertiveness, Grgic said, adding that for Beijing, weakened NATO-IP4 ties and a divided U.S.-Europe front presents an opportunity to deepen its regional influence.
'In a nutshell, fractures in Western alignment provide China with more room to maneuver diplomatically, economically and militarily.'