ET Graphics: India's fertility rate falls to 1.9, now below the replacement rate of 2.1
India remains the world's most populous country in 2025 with 1.46 billion people, but its total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to a UNFPA report. This indicates that, on average, women are having fewer children than needed to maintain population levels. India's TFR was 2.3 in 2014 and 2.0 in 2021.
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While India continues to be the most populous country, with an estimated 1.46 billion people in 2025, the country's total fertility rate (TRF) has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released on Tuesday. As per the 2021 Sample Registration System (SRS) report, the country's TFR is 2.0 children per woman, meaning that, on average, a woman would be expected to have two children during her childbearing years (typically ages 15- 49). This figure was 2.3 in 2014.Fertility rate below the replacement level means that women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration. The UN report placed India in a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change , with population doubling time now estimated at 79 years. Here's a look:
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Indian Express
8 hours ago
- Indian Express
Knowledge Nugget: UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025 – Must-know insights for UPSC
Take a look at the essential concepts, terms, quotes, or phenomena every day and brush up your knowledge. Here's your knowledge nugget for today. (Relevance: UPSC has asked questions on population, government policies to utlise demographic dividends, and key terms associated with it. Check them in the post-read questions. In this regard, understanding the SOWP Report 2025 is important for your UPSC exam.) The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report was released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). This year's report, 'The real fertility crisis: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world' has called for a shift from panic over falling fertility to addressing unmet reproductive goals. The report draws on academic research and new data from a UNFPA–YouGov survey spanning 14 countries, including India. 1. According to the report, one in three adult Indians (36%) face unintended pregnancies, while 30% experience unfulfilled desire for having either more or fewer children, and 23% face both. 2. SOWP Report 2025 underlines that millions of individuals are unable to realise their real fertility goals. This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. And, the answer lies in greater reproductive agency – a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family. 3. One in five people globally expect not to have the number of children they desire. The key drivers include the prohibitive cost of parenthood, job insecurity, housing, concerns over the state of the world, and the lack of a suitable partner. A toxic blend of economic precarity and sexism plays a role in many of these issues, the report shows. 4. In the case of India, financial limitations are one of the biggest barriers to reproductive freedom. Nearly four in 10 people say financial limitations are stopping them from having the families they want. Job insecurity (21%), housing constraints (22%), and the lack of reliable childcare (18%) are making parenthood feel out of reach. 5. Health barriers like poor general well-being (15%), infertility (13%), and limited access to pregnancy-related care (14%) add further strain. Many are also holding back due to growing anxiety about the future—from climate change to political and social instability. 6. According to United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA, 2024), India is now the world's most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people – a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins falling, around 40 years from now. Why is it called UNFPA? High fertility and low fertility duality case of India 1. Replacement-level fertility is commonly defined as 2.1 births per woman, which is the rate at which a population size remains the same from one generation to the next. India has reached the replacement-level fertility of 2.0, but the report pointed out that many people, especially women, still face significant barriers to making free and informed decisions about their reproductive lives and significant disparities persist across regions and states. These barriers create what the report identifies as India's 'high fertility and low fertility duality.' 2. Fertility has fallen below the replacement level (2.1) in 31 states/UTs, but remains high in Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), and Uttar Pradesh (2.7). Urban-rural gaps persist, and seven states have yet to reach replacement TFR in rural areas. In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Delhi, many couples delay or skip childbirth due to costs and work-life conflict, especially among educated middle-class women. This duality reflects differences in economic opportunities, access to healthcare, education levels, and prevailing gender and social norms. Issue of Infertility in India The report highlighted that Infertility remains under-prioritised in India. Infertility needs to be considered for inclusion under the government's health insurance schemes, as suggested in the report. An estimated 27.5 million Indian couples face infertility, yet public sector services are limited, while private care remains expensive and largely confined to urban centres. 📍Positive Growth of Population: When the birth rate is more than the death rate between two points of time or when people from other countries migrate permanently to a region, it is called positive growth of population. 📍Negative Growth of Population: When there is a decrease in population between two points of time due to a fall in birth rate below the death rate or people migrate to other countries, it is called negative growth of population. 📍Density of Population: The number of persons per unit area is called the density of population. According to the 2011 Census, India's population density is 382 persons per square kilometer, and in states, Bihar has the highest density at 1106 persons per square kilometer. In 1951, it was 117 persons/sq km. What is the demographic dividend? FYI: The dependency ratio is equal to the population below 15 or above 64, divided by the population in the 15-64 age group. This is usually expressed as a percentage. The working-age population is generally defined as those aged 15-64 years. 📍Period of population explosion: The sudden increase in the population of the country is called a population explosion. In India, the decade of 1951-1981 is referred to as the period of population explosion. During this period, the average annual growth rate was as high as 2.2 percent. 📍Fertility Rate: The fertility rate refers to the number of live births per 1000 women in the child-bearing age group, usually taken to be 15 to 49 years. Total fertility rate (TFR) 📍Total Fertility Rate (TFR): According to the website of OECD, the total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates (1) The total fertility rate in an economy is defined as: (UPSC CSE 2024) (a) the number of children born per 1000 people in the population in a year. (b) the number of children born to couple in their lifetime in a given population. (c) the birth rate minus death rate. (d) the average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age. (2) India is regarded as a country with 'Demographic Dividend''. This is due to– (UPSC CSE 2011) (a) Its high population in the age group below 15 years. (b) Its high population in the age group of 15-64 years. (c) Its high population in the age group above 65 years. (d) Its high total population. (Source: NCERT, 'Millions unable to realise reproductive goals': UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025 reveals crisis of fertility aspirations, India becomes world's most populous nation: What's behind the population numbers?) Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for May 2025. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at Khushboo Kumari is a Deputy Copy Editor with The Indian Express. She has done her graduation and post-graduation in History from the University of Delhi. At The Indian Express, she writes for the UPSC section. She holds experience in UPSC-related content development. You can contact her via email: ... Read More
India.com
a day ago
- India.com
United Nations report reveals 68 percent of India's population is of working age..., fertility rate drops to...
United Nations report reveals 68 percent of India's population is of working age..., fertility rate drops to... According to a new demographic report of the United Nations, India will remain the most populous country in the world even in 2025. According to this report, the country's population is estimated to reach 1.46 billion in 2025. UNFPA has also come to know through this report that India may face a serious challenge in the coming days. The report states that India's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement rate. UNFPA has recently released a report titled State of World Population (SOWP) Report, The Real Fertility Crisis. The report points to significant changes in population structure, fertility and life expectancy rate, which is a sign of major demographic change. Decrease in fertility rate The report found that India's total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. This means that Indian women, on average, are having fewer children than is needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next. How many youth are there in India's population? Despite the decrease in birth rate in India, India has the highest youth population. 24 percent of India's population is youth in the age group of 0-14. Whereas 17 percent is in the age group of 10-19 and 26 percent is in the age group of 10-24. Apart from this, 68 percent of the country's population is of working age (15-64). How many percent are elderly? According to the report, the elderly population (65 and above) in India is currently seven percent. However, it may increase in the coming days with the improvement in life expectancy. According to the data of 2025, life expectancy at birth in India is estimated to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.
News18
a day ago
- News18
How Family Aspirations Changed In India Over Decades? UN Report Tells Stories Of 3 Generations
Last Updated: Across India, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has plummeted from about 6 in 1960 to 2 today, as per the UNFPA report. India is moving from large, necessity-driven households to smaller, aspiration-led ones. The recent UNFPA's State of World Population 2025 report features a compelling story of three generations from a single family in Bihar, showcasing this journey of change and its broader implications Saraswati Devi, now 64, was married at just 16 in 1976. By age 30, she had five sons, reflecting a time when the average woman in India had six children, fewer than a quarter used contraception, and under half completed primary school. There was virtually no personal choice — childbearing was determined by tradition, utility, and family or community expectations. Schooling increased gradually and by the 1980s and '90s, more girls were finishing primary education and had slightly better access to contraception. But families still aimed for multiple children. Anita Devi, Saraswati's daughter-in-law, married at 18 in the late 1990s. She ended up having six children; four daughters and two sons. 'I initially wanted only one or two children, just one girl and one boy. We are poor, and raising a large family is difficult… But talking about family planning was not easy in my family, and my husband was against contraception," Anita was quoted as saying in the UNFPA report. But fertility rates began to decline, reflecting slow uptake of family planning and shifting norms. The UNFPA reports states that today, nearly 70 per cent of women use contraception, over 90 per cent complete secondary school, and the average fertility is around two children, down from six. A Story Echoed Across India – and the World This generational narrative is not isolated. Across India, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has plummeted from about 6 in 1960 to 2 today. The report links this shift to: A dramatic rise in female education (from less than 50 per cent primary completion in the 1960s to more than 90 per cent today) Contraceptive use climbing to nearly 70 per cent Women increasingly making independent decisions about their bodies and futures But the story isn't purely celebratory. The UNFPA warns it reflects a 'fertility aspirations crisis": one in three adult Indians (36 per cent) experience unintended pregnancies, and 30 per cent report having fewer — or more — children than they desired, with 23 per cent experiencing both. Why These Changes Matter India's TFR has fallen to 1.9–2.0, now below replacement level (2.1), placing it in the demographic trajectory of ageing nations. Replacement level is the average number of children a woman needs to have in order for a population to exactly replace itself from one generation to the next, without migration. The globally accepted replacement level is 2.1 children per woman. While nearly 68 per cent of the population is currently of working age — a potential economic boon — the window to harness this before an older population overtakes is closing. Reproductive autonomy vs structural support: Despite gains in choice, persistent economic burdens, gender inequality, and inadequate childcare or parental leave systems mean many cannot achieve their ideal family size — even if they want to, says the report. Turning Aspirations into Reality: A Policy Imperative UNFPA asserts that the focus must shift from controlling fertility to unlocking reproductive agency, where individuals can freely and confidently decide if, when, and how many children to have. For India, this translates into scaling up affordable childcare and parental leave, promoting gender-equitable domestic norms, ensuring accessible reproductive healthcare and family planning and supporting economic security through jobs and housing. India's journey from 'as many as possible" to 'as few as desired" mirrors broader global demographic shifts. The tale of three generations — from Saraswati's five to Pooja's deliberate two — captures how deeply family aspirations have evolved. But tellingly, many still cannot align their reproductive lives with their desires. As UNFPA concludes, the real challenge of fertility lies not in how few children are born, but in whether people have the freedom and support to reach their desired family size. Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 11, 2025, 14:14 IST News india How Family Aspirations Changed In India Over Decades? UN Report Tells Stories Of 3 Generations
