No chill! Gujarat ranks among India's most heat-vulnerable states

Time of India

25-05-2025

Ahmedabad: Scorching summers aren't new to Gujarat, but 2025 has pushed all limits. A recent study confirms what residents already felt on their skin: not just summer, but even winter months saw record-breaking temperatures across the state.
The report, titled 'How Extreme Heat is Impacting India', released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), reveals that 97% of Gujarat's districts now fall under either 'very high' or 'high' heat risk index (HRI).
That places Gujarat just behind Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Kerala, and Maharashtra — the only four states where 100% of districts fall in the highest risk zones. Gujarat's heat profile now surpasses Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh, according to the report.
The report also highlighted that compared to very hot days, the number of very warm nights increased for the state in the past decade (2012-22) compared to the climatic baseline (1982-2011). Likewise, in parts of north Gujarat, the difference between day and night temperatures shrank in the same period.
According to the study, the risk of heightened heat exposure was higher in dense, urban, and economically critical cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Bhopal, and Bhubaneswar.
For the study, a heat risk index (HRI) was developed and used to assess threats in 734 districts of India. The index is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework, which defines 'risk as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.'
The report classifies districts into very low, low, moderate, high, and very high-risk categories on a score ranging from 1 to 5 based on risk levels.
The study highlighted that extreme heat now posed a risk to 57% of Indian districts, home to 76% of the country's population.
Districts in 'high risk' categories included Kutch, Aravalli, Mahisagar, Panchmahal, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, and Tapi. Only Dangs was in the moderate category. All other districts were termed as having 'very high risk'.
According to the study, most districts in Gujarat experienced 3 to 6 more 'very hot days' between 2012 and 2022 compared to baseline data from 1982 to 2011.
In comparison, Kutch and some parts of Saurashtra recorded 9 to 12, and the rest of the state 6 to 9 more 'very warm nights' in the same period. Compared to the Gangetic plain, Gujarat recorded a relatively low rise in relative humidity (RH), which increased by 0 to 3% in the last decade.
The report mentioned Ahmedabad – one of the districts with very high heat risk – for its heat action plan (HAP) and initiatives such as parametric insurance for those affected by the Self Employed Women's Association (SEWA) as some of the good practices "to enhance financial resilience and ensure timely compensation for heat-induced losses, particularly focusing on the livelihood losses for outdoor workers".
"Ahmedabad, which launched its HAP in 2013, reportedly avoided about 1,000 all-cause deaths annually during 2014–2015 compared to the 2007–2010 baseline," mentioned the report.
Public health experts associated with HAP design said that the report should be seen in light of the awareness and mitigation measures. "There are multiple factors responsible for the rise in heat, ranging from climate change to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Heat affects a very large population in states like Gujarat, and thus measures become crucial. Several good practices are documented in Ahmedabad, and successful ones should be replicated in other parts of the state," said the expert.