The most powerful conventional engine of warfare ever built is headed for Iran
'Admiral, we have a problem.'
'OK, where is the nearest carrier?'
So goes the start of most operational discussions in the Pentagon. And with good reason. A US Carrier Strike Group (CSG) boasts formidable firepower. It centres on a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with 65-70 fighter jets, including multiple types of F-18 Hornet and now increasingly F-35C stealth jets, plus radar/command-and-control planes and an assortment of helicopters.
Traditionally the carrier was supported by two Arleigh Burke class destroyers and one Ticonderoga class cruiser (although increasingly this is becoming three Arleigh Burkes as the Ticos reach the end of their life). These mighty warships can create a defence bubble resistant even to hypersonic and ballistic weapons, and bombard shore targets a thousand miles away with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Somewhere nearby below the surface, will be found a nuclear powered attack submarine, armed with more Tomahawks and torpedoes.
With its own intelligence and surveillance bubble around it, a US carrier group is the most powerful, versatile and well defended conventional weapons system-of-systems ever created.
And now there are about to be two of these in the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility – the Middle East. The USS Carl Vinson has been there for a while now, conducting strikes against the Houthis and keeping watch once they stopped shooting back. Meanwhile the USS Nimitz is coming fast from west of the Philippines to the Malacca Strait and presumably onwards to the Gulf.
This is significant for a couple of reasons. First, the maths when I was last involved in ops planning said you need two carriers in theatre as a pre-condition for any major US action. The carrier move doesn't mean US involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict is imminent, but it's one of the things they would do before getting stuck in. It gives President Trump more options.
There are also significant consequences for Freedom of Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. On this I need to be very clear – Iran absolutely has the ability to close this strait. Between their mine layers, boarding ability, fast attack craft, uncrewed surface drones, midget submarines and mobile ballistic missiles (in that order) they can either physically close it (with mines) or, by mixing the above, create the insurance conditions for ships to deem it not worth the risk, which amounts to the same thing. Mine clearance is one of the US Navy's few weaknesses.
If the Iranians choose to close the Strait it will be difficult to do much about it. Their mass, mobility and dispersal makes striking back difficult. The US had to expend more than a billion dollars' worth of munitions to pound the Houthis into their current ceasefire: Iran would be much harder to crack.
But we shouldn't assume that the Nimitz and her group can't move into the Iranian missile envelope and operate there. The Gulf of Oman is a much more carrier-friendly environment than the Red Sea, and US carriers have operated there under the fire of Iranian-supplied missiles for months.
Having said the Iranians can close the strait, I don't think they will. Too many countries – such as China, India and indeed the Iranians themselves – need it to stay open.
More likely in my view is that they will seek to contest the Strait in some form, relearning the lessons that they originally taught the Houthis. Boarding operations, hijackings, harassment and targeted missile attacks are more likely. And we know from the Red Sea what happens next. Ships stop going through and oil prices climb: and unlike the Red Sea, there's no alternative route for the Strait of Hormuz.
This is why the Nimitz is coming, and why there are B-2 Stealth bombers deployed to Diego Garcia, doubtless with Massive Ordnance Penetrators – the unique US weapon which could finish off even the toughest, deepest-buried Iranian nuclear facilities.
'Don't mess around in the Strait or we'll have to get involved,' is the blunt message behind the latest carrier move. This is, and always has been, the beauty of a well formed Strike Group – setting the conditions to avoid conflict by being ready to join in if that fails.
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