South Australian Derby runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

Daily Telegraph

01-05-2025

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The $1m South Australian Derby has drawn together a competitive line-up of three-year-old staying prospects and here is our form assessment of each of the runners.
There was a field of 16 runners plus three emergencies declared for the 2500m contest.
Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.
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1 – GOLDRUSH GURU
Showed something of a return to form last start, albeit dropping sharply in grade when fifth in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m). They've been mixing the tactics this prep and drawn out, how will they ride him? Must settle but if he does, he's proven at the trip.
VERDICT: Proving hard to catch but capable on his day.
2 – STATUARIO
Only one poor run this prep when down the track in the Australian Guineas. Other than that he was good through the line when third behind Australian Derby placegetter Shanwah in the Alistar Clark (2040m) before winning the Galilee Final (2400m) at Caulfield last time. Fifth run of the prep and drawn soft.
VERDICT: Shapes as one of the main players.
3 – CONFETTI GARDEN
Three back he wasn't far behind Australian Derby placegetter Shanwah in the Autumn Classic (1800m) before starting favourite in the Tulloch Stakes, finishing fifth, beaten two lengths. Then flopped on the back-up in the Australian Derby. Lands here four weeks between runs with a tricky gate to overcome.
VERDICT: Place claims are strongest, but he needs to lift.
4 – AMERICAN WOLF
Announced himself as a contender when relishing the step up to a staying trip, coming from the back half of the field to prevail in a two-horse war over Litzdeel and her form ties into Statuario from their clash in the Galilee Final (2400m). Eight-day back-up and comes back slightly in trip, from 2800m to 2500m. Gets Mark Zahra but wide draw to overcome.
VERDICT: One of the main players if he handles the back-up.
5 – SAINT EMILION
He didn't fire a shot in his first two runs of 2025, failing to beat a runner home over 1400m and 1600m. Then last time out he improved drastically when fourth in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week. Last spring he won the Geelong Classic over 2200m en route to finishing midfield in the Victoria Derby.
VERDICT: On the improve and not without First 4 prospects.
6 – SNOOPY NOW
Consistent SA gelding that was good late two back when winning the Port Adelaide Guineas (1800m) and last time out he produced the second best last 200m split in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m). Gives the impression he'll run the 2500m and he's drawn to get a decent run.
VERDICT: one of the better chances coming out of the Chairman's Stakes.
7 – DUBAI FOCUS
Consistent performer that's been around the mark in the lead up races. A two-time winner early in the prep, he was fourth in the Port Adelaide Guineas then last time out was third in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week where his final sectional indicates he was feeling the pinch late.
VERDICT: Expect the trip to prove beyond him.
8 – LAVALIER
Godolphin galloper that has got better as the distances have increased. Magnificently bred being a sibling of Helmut, Epaulette, Pearls and Bullbars and there is staying performers in the dam line. No horse hit the line better than him in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week but will need some luck from the wide draw.
VERDICT: The leading chance out of the Chairman's Stakes with luck early.
9 – POLITELY DUN
Held his ground two back when fourth in the Alister Clark (2040m) then last time out he appreciated stepping up to 2400m when strong to the line, second, beaten 2-1/4 lengths by Statuario in the Galilee Final at Caulfield four weeks ago. Coming into form at the right time and drawn to get favours in running.
VERDICT: Has solid credentials and can't be ruled out.
10 – ROCTAVE
Kiwi stayer that's lightly raced. Broke through to win a maiden at Ellerslie over 2200m two back then stepped up sharply in class last time when racing near the speed and had his chance, finishing third in the Group 3 Trelawney Stud Stakes (2100m). Hard to line up the form but it was a true staying test in his last start.
VERDICT: Wouldn't leave him out of the First 4s.
11 – DARKNCONFIDENTIAL
Consistent local galloper that's been competitive in the lead-up but has been beaten more than four lengths in his past two starts in the Port Adelaide Guineas (1800m) and the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week. His closing sectionals last start didn't indicate he want's more ground and has a wide gate to overcome.
VERDICT: Will find this beyond him.
12 – COMPRESSING
Started his career of in perfect fashion, winning a couple of low-grade races in Victoria – a 1606m maiden at Terang and a Benchmark 64 over 2080m at Cranbourne – prior to never getting into the race in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week. It was a slowly run race last time so want to be somewhat forgiving but will need some luck from the gate after drawing barrier 10.
VERDICT: This is a big ask at start four.
13 – SCINTILLANTE
Broke through winning his maiden at Sale over 1717m three starts back then stepped up sharply in grade and was solid, third in the Port Adelaide Guineas (1800m) before failing last time out when never sighting the bunny, always well back in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week but it should be noted he ran the fourth best last 200m split. Drawn to be closer this time.
VERDICT: Can bounce back, each-way claims.
14 – CAVITY BAY
Has run well in her past two in Adelaide, albeit finishing out of the placings. She found the line when fifth in the Auraria Stakes (1800m) then fourth last week in the Group 1 Australasian Oaks (2000m). Three back she was beaten more than five lengths by Chairman's Stakes winner Athanatos.
VERDICT: Expecting the boys to have her measure.
15 – FEMMINILE
One paced type that should run the trip – the question is will she do it fast enough? Performed over staying trips during the spring, third over 2000m in the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield before failing in the VRC Oaks (2500m). OK to the line two back in the Auraria Stakes (1800m) then held her ground when beaten more than three lengths in the Australasian Oaks (2000m) last time. Drawn to get favours.
VERDICT: Doubt she has the class to be a Group 1 winner.
16 – CHASE YOUR DREAMS – SCRATCHED
17e – CAPTAIN HILFIGER
Gains a start and arrives here off a midfield finish in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m) last week in a race that didn't favour those that raced in the second half of the field but his last 200m split didn't point to his looking for more ground.
VERDICT: Not up to this.
18e – GLOBAL ECLIPSE
Lightly raced colt that is yet to miss a placing in four starts, leading all of the way in his latest outing to record a six length victory in a Cranbourne Maiden over 2025m. Earlier this preparation he was close up behind the likes of Belle Detelle, Adrian Knox winner and solid Australian Oaks performer and Miss Alexis, ran well behind the placegetters in the Adrian Knox.
VERDICT: Interesting runner, don't leave him out of the exotics.
19e – GIN RUMMY
Won a Strathalbyn maiden two starts back over 1600m then last time he did make up a bit of ground from a hopeless position to record a midfield finish in the Chairman's Stakes (2000m), running the fourth best last 200m sectional.
VERDICT: Unlikely to get a run but not the worst.
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TIPS
1st – STATUARIO (No. 2)
2nd – POLITELY DUN (No. 9)
3rd – LAVALIER (No. 8)
4th – CONFETTI GARDEN (No. 3)
Originally published as South Australian Derby runner-by-runner form assessments and selections