Tense truce: The fragility of the Israel-Iran ceasefire

India Today

9 hours ago

US President Donald Trump has, theoretically, added another ceasefire to his leadership kitty. Trump said in a post on social media that both Israel and Iran came to him to help broker an arrangement where hostilities between the two would stop. While Israel has inflicted critical damage across Iran, missiles fired by the Iranian military have also managed to penetrate Israel's famed Iron Dome. Four Israelis were reported killed in an Iranian strike following Trump's ceasefire declaration.advertisementThe ceasefire agreement came after Iran's response to US airstrikes against its nuclear programme led Tehran to launch missiles towards Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the largest American military facility in the Middle East. The Iranian government had already expressed its view that any attack on its nuclear facilities would make US installations across the region targets to retaliate against. The Iranian regime was able to keep its word on this threat, a critical outcome to showcase resolve to the Iranian people and help maintain confidence within the country's military after days of damage and loss. A realistic figure of Iranian civilian casualties remains missing.The ceasefire's lasting success hinges on the domestic politics of Israel and Iran. The US, having conducted its operations against Iran's nuclear sites — a long-pending dream for Trump — may not get directly involved any further unless more US facilities are targeted. For Israel, the veneer of indestructability and military prowess has been slightly dented, but this would have been gamed into its plans. No missile defence shield is fully impenetrable. But Israel may also see the ceasefire as a roadblock to further targeting Iranian capacities for long-term deterrence. This is a window that the Israeli leadership may not be able to enjoy again anytime soon, and they would ideally like to inflict as much damage as possible.advertisement
For Iran, the situation remains precarious. The ceasefire reportedly brokered by Qatar was an important break from hostilities. Over the past week, its defences have been left with gaping holes, and its military and intelligence leadership has faced elimination. The country has arrested over 500 people within its borders, accusing them of helping Israeli intelligence.It remains in a position of vulnerability, struggling to provide answers against Israeli attacks, and perhaps looking at a protracted war with the Jewish state at a time when its first line of offence and defence — proxy groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis which it has supported over the years — are unable or unwilling to mobilise.Trump, in all of this, was the joker in the deck. The US, uncharacteristically, mobilised direct contact with the Iranians to get a truce in place. A ceasefire would have been conditional for Tehran to first have a chance to retaliate. Qatar could have been a chosen venue for multiple reasons. Doha is arguably the closest partner for the US in the region today.Along with Al Udeid being the largest base, previous reports had suggested that the Pentagon had moved most of its assets out of the facility days earlier, rendering it mostly empty. Videos on social media of missiles over Doha launched by Iran showed them at a considerable height, considering Al Udeid is only 30 kms from the centre of the capital, allowing Qatari interceptors space to safely take the projectiles down. A theatre of the absurd was created to offer palatable off-ramps to both Israel and Iran. For now, both seem to have taken the offer.advertisementIsrael itself has also announced the success of Operation Rising Lion in eliminating Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile depth, two core areas that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to take offline. The missiles Israel could take out on its own. But it needed American weaponry to effectively target the nuclear installation. The success of the B-2 bomber strikes is as per many estimates, is weeks away, and there remains no guarantee that Iran's nuclear programme has been dismantled. This automatically means the core concern between Israel and Iran, that of nuclear brinkmanship, remains in limbo for the time being.The current ceasefire works for all sides, including Israel, as it has started to take on civilian casualties, and for a small nation, irrespective of its military strength, a protracted conflict would have been economically unsustainable. However, the longevity of this armistice stands on a precarious edge and will demand levelheadedness by both Israel and Iran to maintain this status quo for the time being.(Kabir Taneja is a Fellow and Head, West Asia Initiative, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation. He's the author of The ISIS Peril: The World's Most Feared Terror Group and Its Shadow on South Asia)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch