Analysis: Syria, Lebanon embark on long healing process to repair relations

Yahoo

18-04-2025

BEIRUT, Lebanon, April 18 (UPI) -- Leadership changes in Syria and Lebanon, driven by the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah's influence, have created a rare opportunity for the two neighboring countries to repair their relations and move beyond decades of political domination and military interference.
The stunning collapse last December of the Syrian Baath regime at the hands of Islamist rebels, led by Ahmad Sharaa -- now Syria's new ruler -- has created a new reality in the country and across the region.
Just a month later, Lebanon began to show signs of its own transformation with the election of Joseph Aoun as president and the appointment of Nawaf Salam to lead the new government.
The once-powerful Hezbollah, long accustomed to dictating national policy and hand-picking key officials, was forced to compromise and endorse these new leadership choices.
Leaders in both countries were quick to offer assurances to one another, expressing a willingness to move beyond their troubled, tense and often hostile past, and to open a new chapter in relations based on mutual respect.
The road to recovery will be far from easy, burdened by long-standing and complex disputes, deeply rooted historical grievances and a rapidly shifting Middle East landscape ravaged by years of destructive conflicts.
However, the visit by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to Damascus earlier this week, where he met with Syria's ruler, Ahmad Sharaa, laid the groundwork for dialogue aimed at resolving key points of contention between the two countries.
The visit marks "a watershed moment" in Lebanon-Syria relations, according to Imad Salamey, a senior Middle East policy adviser and associate professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University in Beirut.
Salamey explained that for the first time, both states are engaging on equal sovereign footing, signaling a departure from decades of Syrian tutelage over Lebanon.
"This diplomatic shift recognizes Lebanon's independence and Syria's need to recalibrate its regional posture post-Assad's ouster," he told UPI.
The Sharaa-Salam talks, Salamey added, suggest that both parties are now willing to talk as peers, with mutual interests in securing sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The emerging approach emphasizes non-interference in each other's affairs, with Syria committing to refrain from aggression against Lebanon and Lebanon ensuring it will not serve as a base for launching attacks against Syria.
"This process would pave the way for consolidating stability between the two countries," a well-informed Lebanese source told UPI.
Lebanon has suffered from decades-long Syrian military presence, political domination and manipulation that greatly impacted its governance, political life, economy and stability.
The Syrian Army first entered Lebanon in 1976 to stop the then-raging civil war and remained until it was forced to pull out after the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in a powerful explosion that targeted his convoy in Beirut on Feb. 14, 2005.
Syria, which imposed itself as the main power broker after having been granted guardianship over Lebanon when the civil war ended in 1990, was accused of being behind Hariri's assassination and numerous other such killings during the civil war and in peace.
But its influence on Lebanon began to wane rapidly starting in 2011, when anti-Assad peaceful protests broke out and soon turned into a bloody civil war.
Syrians, on their part, hold grudges against Hezbollah -- and its patron, Iran -- for siding with the Assad regime and joining the bloody battles against the opposition fighters in 2012. The Hezbollah-Iran involvement in Syria ended with Assad's fall.
Last month, three soldiers in Syria's new army and seven Lebanese were killed when clashes erupted near the border town of Al-Qasr in northeastern Lebanon --- one of several key smuggling and supply routes long used by Hezbollah. The fighting ended after two days, with the Lebanese Army deploying in the area.
"No attacks or smuggling will be allowed from the Lebanese side," the source said. "The army now has control of the border to prevent any drug and weapons smuggling, as well as any cross-border interaction or interference."
Smuggling has been a main problem since the establishment of the border between Syria and Lebanon, which extends for approximately 230 miles from the east to the north, with no clear demarcation in many areas.
Land and sea border demarcation, security coordination, preventing smuggling, closing illegal crossings, and adopting security and military measures to prevent the recurrence of the cross-border clashes were at the top of the Salam-Sharaa discussions, according to the Lebanese source.
He said the discussions also covered gas and oil exploration, boosting trade and potential joint projects that would bring mutual benefits in the fields of economy, agriculture and investment.
Both countries, he added, agreed to form a joint committee that included the ministers of justice and defense to address lingering issues, such as uncovering the fate of Lebanese detainees and missing persons in Syria, as well as Syrians held in Lebanese prisons.
"The committee will also work to shed light on the dozens of political assassinations that took place in Lebanon during the Assad regime's rule," the source said.
While historical grievances are "deeply embedded," Lebanon and Syria have a shared interest in securing and demarcating the borders, especially in compliance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1680, Salamey said.
"This provides an achievable starting point," he said. Controlling illegal crossings, which has cost Lebanon some $5 billion annually due to smuggling, per the World Bank's estimates, and halting currency outflows from Syria "are pragmatic, mutually beneficial goals."
Salamey said border control could encourage greater economic cooperation and mutual stabilization, but emphasized the need for international guarantees, technical support and "political insulation from spoilers -- particularly Hezbollah and other non-state actors who benefit from open borders."
Encouraged by the recent political shifts, Saudi Arabia stepped in to bring Syria and Lebanon closer, playing a key mediating role in helping the two countries address their long-standing disputes.
The Lebanese source revealed that land and maritime border demarcation talks will proceed with the support of Saudi Arabia, which believes that there is "a serious opportunity" for both countries to emerge from their successive crises and embark on a new process aimed at consolidating stability.
Besides the disputed territories, securing the return of 1.5 million Syrian refugees from Lebanon represents a major challenge. While crisis-ridden Lebanon can no longer host them, war-ravaged Syria is not yet ready to take them back because of its limited resources.
Salamey also noted that their divergent political systems -- Lebanon's consociational democracy versus Syria's Islamist autocratic trajectory -- also pose "enduring risks."
He said that without broader regional reconciliation and internal reforms, progress may be limited to "transactional arrangements" rather than leading to "transformational peace."
"The road to healing is long and fraught, but the current moment offers a window for engagement that didn't exist in recent decades," he said.