Russia Setting Up to 'Test' NATO in Baltics: German Intelligence

Newsweek

2 days ago

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Russia wants to test the NATO alliance and extend its confrontation with the West beyond Ukraine, according to Germany's foreign intelligence chief.
The warning by Bruno Kahl comes as NATO chief Mark Rutte said that Russia's military industrial complex was producing arms at a rate quick enough to allow Moscow ready to attack the alliance within five years.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
A K9 mobile self-propelled Howitzer (L) and an Archer self-propelled Howitzer (R) operated by the Swedish Artillery are seen during the NATO "Exercise Lightning Strike" on November 20, 2024 near Heinu, Finland
A K9 mobile self-propelled Howitzer (L) and an Archer self-propelled Howitzer (R) operated by the Swedish Artillery are seen during the NATO "Exercise Lightning Strike" on November 20, 2024 near Heinu, Finland
Leon Neal
Why It Matters
NATO leaders have repeatedly said that Vladimir Putin's aggression will not stop at Ukraine, with the alliance's eastern flank members such as the Baltic states, warning of Moscow's hybrid warfare measures.
Comments from Kahl and Rutte form the latest talking points about how the West can respond to the threat posed by Russia which will be discussed at the alliance's summit in The Hague later this month.
What To Know
Kahl said Moscow was looking at a confrontations that fell short of a full military engagement and so did not mean that Russian tank armies would roll into western territories but it could launch covert operations into the neighboring Baltic states.
"It's enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities," he told Table Media, according to Reuters.
This is a reference to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea in which Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms and civilian clothes dubbed "little green men" when Moscow initially denied their identity.
Kahl said Berlin was "quite certain" that Ukraine was a stepping stone for Russia's aggression and Moscow sought to test NATO's resolve.
"That doesn't mean we expect tank armies to roll westwards," he added. "But we see that NATO's collective defence promise is to be tested."
Meanwhile, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte told the London think tank, Chatham House, on Monday that the military equipment Russia produces in three months what the whole of the alliance produces in a year.
This image from November 6, 2019 shows Bruno Kahl, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) in Berlin, Germany.
This image from November 6, 2019 shows Bruno Kahl, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) in Berlin, Germany.Rutte said Russia is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles this year alone and that Moscow could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.
He said that when NATO meets for its summit in The Hague this month he expected alliance members to agree to spending 5 percent of GDP on defense.
That summit will take place as the transatlantic alliance faces challenges not just from Russia but amid questions over the current U.S. administration's commitment to the bloc.
Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) told the U.S. lawmakers this month that NATO members, even those not within range of Russian long-range fires and including the U.S.— must commit to Rutte's proposal of at least 3.5 percent of GDP on defense and another 1.5 percent on the industrial base, infrastructure protection and cybersecurity.
In comments emailed to Newsweek, Montgomery's message to the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Subcommittee on Europe was that Putin is not a misunderstood regional leader or an aggrieved actor reacting to NATO expansion but a "stone-cold killer who has launched wars of conquest."
He said that if NATO is to prevail against this Russian threat, U.S. leadership, European defense investments, and collective action are required, added Montgomery, a retired U.S. rear admiral.
What People Are Saying
Bruno Kahl, head of the Federal Intelligence Service: "We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it, that Ukraine is only a step on the journey westward."
NATO secretary general Mark Rutte, to Chatham House, Monday: "Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years...There is no longer East or West – there is just NATO."
Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD): "If NATO is to prevail against this Russian menace it will need U.S. leadership, European defense investments, and collective action to punish its adversaries."
"Forward-deploying U.S. forces and equipment across Europe is essential to NATO's warfighting capacity. The answer to the challenge from Russia is not that America should do less, but rather Europe must do more."
What Happens Next
After a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels last week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said there was "almost near consensus" on a 5 per cent GDP commitment of defense spending which will be discussed as the alliance meets in the Netherlands between June 24 and 26.