Putin is building new force to take on Nato

Telegraph

24-05-2025

Russia is building bases and expanding its military footprint near the Finnish border, in a sign of where its swollen army could be moved after a ceasefire in Ukraine.
New satellite imagery has revealed columns of new troop tents, expanding military bases and renovated Arctic airfields, all opposite Nato's northeastern flank in what could be a harbinger of a future war.
The signals are elsewhere too. The Kremlin is expanding military recruitment, increasing weapons production and upgrading logistical infrastructure along Russia's borders with Norway, Finland and the Baltics.
Finnish defence officials say the new build-up is small-scale, but is likely being done in preparation for tens of thousands of troops as well as military assets to be redeployed to their border and further north to the Arctic.
While not imminent, they told The Telegraph that the threat is very real. The officials believe they have up to five years until Moscow can beef up its forces to concerning levels if the full-scale war in Ukraine comes to and end.
'We joined Nato, so we anticipated this,' said Major General Sami Nurmi, chief of strategy of the Finnish defence forces. The military, he said, is 'watching very closely and preparing accordingly'.
'What we are seeing are the preparations for the future' when Russia will bring back the forces fighting in Ukraine, he told The Telegraph. 'But the troops on our borders will grow.'
He added: 'We do not see any immediate threat towards Finland.'
Donald Trump said the same on Tuesday. Responding to Russia's military manoeuvres, the US president claimed he was 'not worried at all' and that Finland and Norway would be 'very safe'.
Finland, which was forced to cede territory to the Soviet Union in the Second World War, spent decades persuing a policy of neutrality until it decided to join Nato in 2023 in the wake of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
The country's accession to the alliance extended Nato's frontier with Russia by 835 miles, changing the military strategic situation in northern Europe.
Maj Gen Nurmi is clear-eyed, but pragmatic about the new infrastructure and Russia's troop movement plans. 'We do not want to be too alarmist,' he said. Watching developments across the border 'has been our daily business for hundreds of years'.
Satellite imagery has revealed that over 130 new troop tents have been erected in Kamenka, less than 40 miles from Finland and 140 miles from Helsinki. The base, which was unused before 2022, should now be able to house 2,000 troops.
Russia is also expanding military infrastructure around the city of Petrozavodsk, 100 miles from the borders of Finland and Norway, which could serve as a new headquarters for Moscow's northwestern troops in a possible conflict with Nato.
The photographs also show intensifying activity at the Soviet-era Arctic air bases at Severomorsk-2 as well as Olenya, where nuclear-capable Tu-22 and Tu-95 strategic bombers have been moved. Russian helicopters have also been spotted in the Arctic city of Murmansk for the first time in two decades.
Russia has been forced to move expensive military assets north to get them out of the range of Ukraine's drones, which target air bases across Russia.
But Nato fears that Moscow is expanding its military footprint further and further north to extend its control over resources in the Arctic region, which is at the centre of a new geopolitical rivalry.
'The Arctic is the important theatre of the future,' said Maj Gen Nurmi. 'This will not change. We are working very closely with our Arctic allies to assess Russia's plans.'
But changes are also happening at an organisational level as the Russian military restructures itself to face its perceived growing threat of Nato to the north-west.
Last year, Moscow re-established the huge military district of Leningrad to increase its military presence next to Finland, Estonia and Latvia. Small brigades that were stationed there before the Ukraine war, will nearly triple in size to become divisions of over 10,000 troops.
That process has already started. In Kamenka, where the rows of tents have been built, the 138th Motor Rifle Brigade there has become the 69th Motor Rifle division.
'This is a continuation of military plans before 2022 and response to new geopolitical developments of Sweden and Finland joining Nato,' said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organisation that tracks Russian military movements.
It is difficult, he said, to interpret Russia's actions as strictly either defensive or offensive. 'There a multitude of scenarios and uncertainties.'
In February, Danish intelligence warned that Russia could launch a major land war in Europe within five years if the war freezes in Ukraine. Others have suggested it would take just two years for Moscow to be ready.
There are other signs that Russia's military is not preparing for peace. Putin has ordered his military to increase its ranks to up to 1.5 million troops, up from a million before the invasion of Ukraine, while its military spending will reach 6pc of GDP this year, while Nato countries on average spend 2.71pc. Tanks are being built at an increasing rate, but not being sent to Ukraine.
Russia's hybrid attacks on Finland, like other Nato states, are also increasing, including GPS jamming along the border, the cutting of undersea cables and other sabotage attacks inside the country, which are seen as Moscow's attempt to destabilise the West and retaliate for its backing of Ukraine.
On Finland's eastern border, the first 22 miles of a planned 124-mile fence — 15ft-high and fortified with barbed wire, cameras and sensors — was completed on Wednesday after Helsinki last year accused Moscow of directing migrants to Finland in a 'hybrid operation'.
What is happening on the other side of that border is 'high priority', Jarmo Lindberg, a Finnish MP and chief of defence from 2014 to 2019, told The Telegraph.
But echoing the characteristic level-headedness of other Finnish officials towards the manoeuvres, he said: 'The latest movements and signs of construction are just one more tactical or operational change in a long line of Russian activities.'
The former general agrees with estimates it will take up to five years to reconstitute Russia's military capabilities in the north after they were plundered for the war in Ukraine. But the process is happening, he said.
The 'billion euro question', however, will be what Russia does next.
If there is a peace agreement in Ukraine, Finns 'will be watching where troops will be relocated across Russia? Will the same units return to our borders or will new ones be brought. Will it just be troops? Or will they bring air defences, radar systems, electronic warfare systems?' Mr Lindberg said.
Is Finland ready for what is to come? 'We know Russia will always be a threat for us. We will be ready. We are ready already. '