Carlyle's Jeff Currie Sees Downside Risk on Oil That Could Hit Shale
Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer for Energy Pathways at Carlyle, says there's a lot of downside risk, with oil and commodities 'in the cross-hairs' of the trade war. 'I think oil probably has this right in re-pricing the risk again this morning,' he said. Currie joins "The Pulse with Francine Lacqua" on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)
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29 minutes ago
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BlackRock, Goldman Scale Up Tax Trades in $3 Trillion SMA Boom
(Bloomberg) -- This year's stock market turbulence has punished ordinary investors. But for the wealthy, it's opened up fresh opportunities to convert equity swings into tax breaks — fueling a growing Wall Street business that turns volatility into a financial advantage. Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. NYC Mayoral Candidates All Agree on Building More Housing. But Where? Senator Calls for Closing Troubled ICE Detention Facility in New Mexico California Pitches Emergency Loans for LA, Local Transit Systems BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are among firms scaling up a strategy known as tax-loss harvesting, typically offered through customized portfolios called separately managed accounts. When markets drop, managers sell stocks trading below their purchase price to realize losses. Those losses offset gains elsewhere in a portfolio, reducing clients' tax liabilities while maintaining overall portfolio exposure. The approach allows investors to shrink their current-year IRS bills while deferring capital gains into the future. In April's selloff, for example, a manager could dump Home Depot Inc. and rotate into Lowe's Cos Inc., maintaining sector exposure while staying inside tax rules. Once a boutique service reserved only for the ultra-rich, investment firms are repackaging market turbulence as a fiscal opportunity, with automated trading programs scanning portfolios daily as equity conditions shift. With fee pressure eroding revenue in traditional asset management, Wall Street is leaning more heavily on tax-optimization trades to differentiate offerings, retain clients and defend margins in a competitive marketplace. 'There is just inherently going to be more volatility in the system,' said Scott Smith, senior director at industry consultant Cerulli Associates. 'With trade policies, tariffs, taxes, everything is on the table. There is no assumption of what the future looks.' In one particularly active stretch during April's selloff, BlackRock's Aperio, a platform for personalized portfolios, executed more than $18 billion in trades. That generated $700 million in realized losses that can be used to offset taxable gains elsewhere in client portfolios, or so-called tax-loss harvesting. That equated to roughly $5 to $7 in losses realized for every $100 traded that month. 'We monitor daily. We look at losses and high-cash positions. We balance harvesting with managing tracking error,' said Ran Leshem, who oversees BlackRock's separately managed account business, now managing $220 billion. 'Our goal is to be the market leader in SMAs.' Still, even as this year's selling frenzy created opportunities, the equity rebound that followed highlights a trade-off: while the approach can lower future tax bills, it also locks in losses that may prove costly if markets quickly recover, making the ultimate payoff difficult to measure in real time. Regardless, the opportunities are only growing. Direct indexing, where investors hold individual stocks directly rather than through pooled funds, has become the backbone of this tax-optimization machine. With the SMA market expected to grow from $3 trillion to $5 trillion by 2027, firms are layering on increasingly complex techniques to compete, pitched as added-value services. Tax-loss harvesting is only one lever. Advisors also optimize dividend timing, gain deferrals, charitable gifting and jurisdictional overlays in an attempt to juice after-tax portfolio performance. 'Risk management and tax management go hand in hand,' said Monali Vora, global head of wealth investment solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. 'You can't do one without the other.' Aperio's long-short tax-aware strategies, launched in 2023, amplify gross exposure — boosting the number of positions that can generate harvestable losses, while keeping market exposure roughly the same. About 7% of April's realized losses came from these strategies. While still a small share of overall assets, it's part of the firm's expanding business. Managing tracking error, or how closely a portfolio tracks its benchmark, remains a challenge. The IRS wash-sale rule bars investors from buying back the same, or substantially identical, securities over a specified timeframe. Firms navigate these constraints by swapping into correlated securities. Selling Moderna Inc. and buying Pfizer Inc. is straightforward; replacing a giant like Apple Inc. requires more complex substitutes. 'Clients are seeking alpha, downside protection and more tax-loss harvesting potential for both ETF and stock positions,' Leshem said. 'But with that comes the tug of war between harvesting and maintaining tracking error.' At Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, the approach is different. Instead of mirroring an index, the Texas-based firm uses broad diversification across thousands of stocks to reduce wash-sale risk, reallocating proceeds toward securities with higher expected returns based on their quant model. 'We can keep the profile of the account but take advantage of tax opportunity,' said Savina Rizova, co-chief investment officer and global head of research. Dimensional, which lowered its account minimum to $500,000 in 2021, harvested $20 million in net losses across about 1,400 accounts in April — averaging $16,700 in losses per $1 million invested. Parametric, Morgan Stanley's direct indexing arm, strikes a more cautious tone. 'Tax-loss harvesting is one layer of customization, but there are many others,' said co-president and CIO Tom Lee. 'For most institutions, tax management isn't their focus.' At the height of April's volatility, Parametric harvested $620 million in losses, generating around $230 million in potential tax benefits. That same month, Parametric also introduced an offering with a $25,000 minimum investment, part of a broader push to open direct-indexing features to smaller accounts and widen the client base for tax-managed SMAs. Quant hedge funds such as AQR Capital Management are also in tax-optimization arena, applying long-short structures aimed at maximizing harvestable losses while managing exposure drift. As competition heats up, Goldman Sachs Asset Management is pushing into new customization features to expand its tax-optimized platform, such as introducing capabilities to migrate equity ETFs into SMA portfolios. The firm has also ramped up its engineering staff to scale automation and global execution as tax-optimized services become increasingly industrialized. While tax-loss harvesting can reduce tax bills, research shows the biggest benefits tend to accrue to wealthier investors with large taxable portfolios and steady capital gains to offset. As such, for investors able to access these platforms, the appeal is simple. 'There is an awareness among investors that it's not what you make, it's what you keep,' said Parametric's Lee. 'Taxes represent a headwind for investors to the extent they have to realize gains in taxable accounts. You can take advantage of volatility when it comes.' --With assistance from Justina Lee and Lu Wang. New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling What America's Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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31 minutes ago
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McDonald's Shares Slump as GLP-1 Risks Spur Rare Sell Rating
(Bloomberg) -- McDonald's Corp. shares slumped on Tuesday after Redburn Atlantic gave the burger chain its sole sell rating, saying shifting consumer patterns due to weight-loss drugs and inflation are cause for concern. Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. NYC Mayoral Candidates All Agree on Building More Housing. But Where? Senator Calls for Closing Troubled ICE Detention Facility in New Mexico California Pitches Emergency Loans for LA, Local Transit Systems Shares of McDonald's fell as much as 1.7% in Tuesday trading on the downgrade, a two-notch cut from Redburn's previous buy rating. Redburn held a buy rating on the stock since initiating coverage in 2023. As more Americans turn to GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic to lose weight, McDonald's could see as much as a $428 million annual impact to revenue, representing about 1% of system sales, Redburn Atlantic analysts Chris Luyckx and Edward Lewis wrote. 'A 1% drag today could easily build to 10% or more over time, particularly for brands skewed toward lower-income consumers or group occasions.' The analysts also cut McDonald's price target to a Street-low $260, implying a nearly 15% decline from where the stock closed on Monday. Shares have declined for seven straight days, on track for their longest losing streak in nearly 12 years, after closing just below a record high in mid-May. Redburn's lowered recommendation was just the latest downgrade for the fast-food giant, which was recently knocked down to hold-equivalent ratings at Morgan Stanley, Loop Capital and Erste Group. Analysts remain largely split on the stock, with 22 buy-equivalent ratings, 18 hold-equivalent ratings and an average price target of $332, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. McDonald's US same-stores sales fell 3.6% in the first-quarter of this year, marking the largest decline since 2020 when people were stuck at home during the pandemic. Fast-food restaurants like McDonald's have also seen a decline in traffic in 40 of the past 43 months, according to the analysts. In addition to the McDonald's call, Redburn also launched coverage of Domino's Pizza Inc. with a sell rating, while starting Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. as a new neutral. YUM! Brands, Inc., which owns popular brands KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, was raised to buy from neutral given the stock's 'reasonable' valuation. Despite the slump, McDonald's has increased its average transaction amount through pricing, but lower-income consumers are now opting to eat more at home as the price difference between home and restaurant food increases, according to the report. 'While the brand has historically benefited from consumer trade-down during periods of pressure, recent years of outsized menu pricing have created value-perception challenges, contributing to persistent traffic softness,' the analysts wrote. Still, McDonald's shares have risen 3.8% so far this year, but without improved value proposition and menu innovation, continued growth may not be sustainable, the analysts added. --With assistance from Peyton Forte. (Updates shares, adds additional details from research note.) New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling What America's Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again American Mid: Hampton Inn's Good-Enough Formula for World Domination ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
