Mets Continue To Do More With Less As Starting Rotation Flourishes

Forbes

2 days ago

The prevailing narrative is that the New York Mets, led by owner Steve Cohen, are successful because they are a financial behemoth. And yes, they do have the largest payroll in baseball, and they did steal Juan Soto from the crosstown rival Yankees for a satchel full of money last offseason.
But it's been a whole lot more than dollars that has propelled the Mets to the 2024 NLCS and first place in the NL East thus far this season. The overperformance of their relatively inexpensive starting rotation has played a pivotal role as well.
Since the departure of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander by the 2023 trading deadline the Mets have taken a different approach to assembling a rotation. Their Plan A has often not quite worked out, primarily due to injury, but they have scrambled to formulate successful backup plans.
In 2024, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea were their best starters in terms of both quantity and quality. Behind them Jose Quintana gave them bulk, while Tylor Megill and David Peterson showed flashes of excellence in smaller samples. Adrian Houser also got plenty of run, with far less success.
They decided to forego the flash and big dollars at the top of the offseason free agent market, largely running it back, with Frankie Montas slated to replace Severino, who found greener financial pastures with the Athletics. Montas signed for two years, $34 million, Manaea re-signed for three years, $75 million, while Quintana left to join the Brewers. Sure, that's a hefty investment in starting pitching, but it's not exactly at the top of the market in terms of years or dollars.
Plan A didn't pan out - both Montas and Manaea are sidelined with significant injuries. And as they did in 2024, the Mets' Plan B is not just working out, it's paying massive dividends. If anything, there's been an even greater windfall of success.
Everyone agrees that the Phillies' starting rotation is a huge strength, right? When healthy, a Zack Wheeler/Aaron Nola/Cristopher Sanchez/Jesus Luzardo/Ranger Suarez rotation to absolutely fearsome. Well, the Phils' rotation has a 3.62 ERA this season, 5th best in the NL. That's way behind the Mets' group, which paces the league with an exceptional 2.91 mark. Kodai Senga, Megill, Clay Holmes, Peterson and Griffin Canning are taking the ball every fifth day, giving the club about six innings every time out, and are consistently keeping them in ballgames, or even better than that.
The Mets' David Stearns-led front office and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner deserve a ton of credit. Holmes, like Soto, came over as a free agent from the Yankees, where he had been used as a short reliever. Canning was a last minute spring free agent pickup after the Montas/Manaea injuries opened a spot.
Both traditional metrics like ERA- and FIP- and my batted ball-based 'Tru' ERA- pronounced Mets' starters as about league average in 2024, with Severino (90 'Tru'-), Manaea (93), Megill (94) and Peterson (99) the best of the lot. What all of those guys have in common are quality fastballs that they use quite often. According to my pitch grades based on bat-missing and contact management relative to the league, Severino had an 'A' four-seamer and a 'B+' sinker last season, while Manaea had an 'A' sinker and a 'B+' four-seamer. It's too early to be tossing around pitch grades this season, but Megill (63.9% fastball usage) and Peterson (52.0%) are having success throwing an awful lot of fastballs.
Canning is a very interesting case. Arguably the worst ERA title-qualifying starter in the game in 2024, he's suddenly morphed into a ground ball pitcher in his first year with the Mets. His 52.6% grounder rate is 9.9% higher than his previous career high. He's still the least exciting member of this rotation, but league average is a big step up for him.
And the return of Senga has been huge. Limited to 5 1/3 innings by injury in 2024, he's back and throwing his lethal forkball quite often. His strikeout rate is way down, but has throttling contact of all types, emerging as the only truly exceptional contact manager in the Met rotation.
Put it all together and the Mets are paying just under a combined $40 million in 2025 for their current rotation, excluding Montas and Manaea. Their pitcher-friendly home park has helped them, as has the relatively cool early season weather, but this group has been one of the under the radar success stories of the 2025 season to date.
Adjusted for exit speed/launch angle, all five members have been at least a bit fortunate to date. Each has an actual, Unadjusted Contact Score lower than their adjusted mark (78 to 98 for Holmes, 95 to 105 for Canning, 102 to 110 for Megill, 86 to 102 for Peterson, 73 to 80 for Senga). Add back the Ks and BBs, and their 'Tru' ERA- marks (93 for Holmes, 103 for Canning, 86 for Megill, 95 for Peterson, 80 for Senga) are as high or higher than the worse of each pitcher's ERA- and FIP-.
Put another way, there's some regression coming. Canning, as previously stated, is still just OK, Holmes and Peterson's mainstream numbers are most out of whack, and Senga's 13.0% liner rate allowed is going up for sure. And hopefully Senga's arm can withstand a steady diet of forkballs.
But one borderline ace (Senga), three #3-ish guys (including one with upside in Megill) and an innings guy (Canning) will do just fine. Money is a big part of the Mets' success, to be sure - heck, even throwing a few more million at Canning after a couple other options didn't pan out is a type of luxury that many other teams can't or won't afford. But getting the best out of what you've got is a big deal too, and this Mets' regime is proving quite adept at that aspect of the game.