‘Welcome green shoots': warm March weather gives 1.1% lift to UK retail sales
Warm weather in March helped give a lift to retailers despite a late Easter, with sales of gardening, DIY, food, and health and beauty products getting a boost from the spring sunshine.
Purchases for Mother's Day also helped retail sales climb 1.1% last month, according to a British Retail Consortium-KPMG survey, keeping pace with February despite trading against a much stronger period a year before and a downturn in visitor numbers on high streets and in retail parks as more sales shifted online.
Helen Dickinson, the chief executive of the BRC, said: 'Despite a challenging global geopolitical landscape, the small increase in both food and non-food sales masked signs of underlying strengthening of demand given March 2025's comparison with last year's early Easter.
'The improving weather made for a particularly strong final week, with gardening and DIY equipment flying off the shelves.'
Spending in garden centres increased by 13.4% last month, according to separate figures from Barclays bank.
However experts said growth may have peaked as spending on big-ticket items, such as sofas and TVs, remained weak as consumer confidence fell in the light of concerns about the impact of US trade tariffs and the UK government tax increases on businesses, which kicked off this month.
Dickinson warned that the increase in national insurance contributions for employers and new payments related to packaging recycling would 'undoubtedly increase inflation later in the year and hold back critical investment in high streets across the country'.
Jobs surveys have shown levels of unemployment rising and job vacancies falling as employers shelve investment plans and become more reluctant about hiring.
Households cut spending on essentials such as groceries, petrol and energy bills during the month, according to Barclays, as they prepared for expected price rises, prioritised holidays and splashed out on electronics and digital subscriptions.
Karen Johnson, the head of retail at Barclays Corporate Banking, said there were 'welcome green shoots' as the warmer weather encouraged consumers to invest in gardening and DIY but households were adopting 'prudent budgeting'.
'Consumers are feeling the pressure of rising bills, alongside being mindful of the impact recent global events may have on their finances,' she said.
Households have been hit with a range of tax and price rises, from an average council tax rise of almost 5%, food inflation on basics such as butter, and water bill increases that in the Thames area and south-west England have risen by more than 30%.
'We may have already seen the peak for some time,' said Sarah Bradbury, the chief executive of the grocery trade body IGD.
The stock market value of major supermarkets has fallen as companies prepare for a price war. The fight for a share of straitened household budgets is led by Asda, which is struggling to hold on to its position as the UK's third largest chain.
Linda Ellett, the UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, said the modest rate of sales growth as costs rise 'means there are some retailers really struggling whilst others win, especially online'.
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