The Dodgers are good, and old. Should they try NBA-style load management?
With the Lakers, Clippers and Kings all one loss from summer vacation, the sporting eyes of Los Angeles turn to the Dodgers.
If you've been busy watching the NBA and NHL playoffs, let us catch you up on the Dodgers. After a start so good that folks giddily wondered if the Dodgers could win every game, and after a couple of runs so bad that the Dodgers twice fell into third place in the National League West, the opening month is over and the verdict is in: The Dodgers are who we thought they are.
They are in first place, in the toughest division in the major leagues. They have 21 victories, the most by any Dodgers team at the end of April since their streak of annual postseason appearances started in 2013. They are on pace to win 110 games, and their odds of making the playoffs stand at 98.3%, according to Baseball Prospectus.
There are 29 major league teams that start the season hoping to advance to the playoffs, and then there are the Dodgers, who start planning for October in March. For all the angst about the Dodgers' injured pitchers, well, that is all part of the plan.
The Dodgers awoke Wednesday with 13 pitchers on the injured list, the most of any major league team, matching the combined total of the rest of the NL West. They have 32 pitchers under control: on the active roster, on a minor league option, on the injured list, or on two-way status (Shohei Ohtani, who is expected to resume pitching later this season).
They do not try to find five starting pitchers and ride them all season. They do try to end up with five healthy and effective starters for the postseason, and they try to maximize their chances to do that by collecting as many pitchers as they can, with the support of an ownership group willing to pay players to rehabilitate.
No one pitched more innings last season than Gavin Stone, at 140. In 2013, Clayton Kershaw pitched 259 innings, including the postseason.
However, as the Dodgers have become acutely aware of managing the workloads of their starting pitchers, they have not prioritized managing the workloads of their key position players.
The Dodgers have the oldest group of position players in the majors, and the sustained success means extra weeks on the schedule every year.
Over the past five years, Mookie Betts has 205 postseason at-bats and Freddie Freeman 175. Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees has 119 and, among NL West rivals, Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks has 66 and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres has 48.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the team has discussed that issue, but mostly in regard to catching. Will Smith had 105 at-bats last April and 76 this April; backup Austin Barnes had 21 at-bats last April and 32 this April (and he is batting .250 this April, 27 points above his career average).
Among other position players, Roberts said, 'I don't know if that tax of playing an extra month is necessarily a disadvantage for the following season.'
The Dodgers' renowned research and development department has not done a deep dive into that question, according to president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
'So much of our focus is on pitching,' Friedman said, 'and, after a long season, what the offseason program looks like, what the ramp-up looks like, what the season looks like. I don't worry about it that much on the position player front.'
While 'load management' is established in the NBA lexicon, Roberts said he is less concerned in baseball because the postseason features more off days than the regular season, including nearly a week off after the regular season if your team is one of the top two seeds in each league.
'They're actually more antsy and rested than we would actually like,' Roberts said. 'It's a tricky one.
'To give Freddie Freeman off days to say that you're managing his workload, I think it just makes some people feel better that they'll be ready for the postseason. There's no correlation. And it's not an exact science.'
Freeman said the Dodgers do manage his workload, but not always with days off. On Tuesday night, with the Dodgers enjoying a big lead, Freeman was removed after six innings.
'They do such a good job of load management here,' said the 35-year-old Freeman, 'and I'm reluctantly to starting to get on board with it as I get older.
'I ingrained in myself that I get paid to do a job and I do my job. It's hard for me to wrap my mind around, 'You're not doing your job today.' '
On Wednesday, Freeman homered, singled and drove in two runs. The Dodgers again ran up the lead, and again they removed him after six innings.
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