Israel's attack on Iran constitutes strategic shift in regional conflict: TRENDS study
16 June 2025 00:26
ABU DHABI (ALETIHAD)An analytical study by TRENDS for Research and Advisory observed that the massive Israeli attack targeting Iran on June 13, 2025, represents an unprecedented strategic shift in the nature of the conflict between the two countries and carries profound connotations as well as complex regional and international repercussions.The study prepared by the Strategic Studies Department at TRENDS. It considered the Israeli military operation, called 'The Rising Lion', crossed all the traditional red lines that had governed the confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran for more than four decades.According to the study, the Israeli attack on Iran constitutes a strategic turning point in the regional conflict and carries profound implications that extend beyond being a mere military strike. Politically, this attack reflects a clear shift in Israeli deterrence doctrine - from a policy of constructive ambiguity and limited strikes to a strategy of large-scale pre-emptive attacks targeting Iran's military and scientific infrastructure. This indicates that the Israeli strikes were not limited to physical infrastructure but also included the assassination of prominent figures in the Iranian military leadership, including Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri and Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, Hussein Salami. In addition, 25 scientists were targeted, at least six of whom were confirmed dead.The study argues that these directives suggest Israel's conviction that conventional deterrence is no longer sufficient, and that it is preferable - regardless of the cost - to pursue military and nuclear success against Iran.The study also indicated that the Israeli operation conveyed a clear message to the international community: Israel would not wait for diplomatic agreements concerning Iran's nuclear programme. Instead, it is prepared to act unilaterally to defend its national security, even if doing so entails the risk of escalation with Iran and its allies.
While the study suggested that the escalation would remain within the framework of a limited confrontation, subject to careful calculations by both parties, it did not rule out the possibility of a broader war if diplomatic efforts failed and military operations extended to include the targeting of American interests.
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