John Swinney is a decent, caring kind of chap. Inspirational, he's not

The National

9 hours ago

If a cause needs a ­charismatic figure to sweep serious numbers to the ­metaphorical ­barricades, Honest John is not that man. This is not just about the Hamilton ­by-election saga, embarrassing as that ­undoubtedly was. Or about the ­misguided tactics which ­showcased ­Reform UK and ­possibly helped their vote along.
In days of yore, the London media used to write that John Smith was like a douce Scottish bank manager. (He wasn't! As one of his close pals observed, he could and did start a party in an empty room!)
But that might be an entirely suitable ­description of the chap now leading his troops into something not at all resembling a glad, confident morning. Sunlit uplands are not in view.
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Swinney's outings in Holyrood are ­invariably courteous and low-key; rather like his private persona.
He says, not unfairly, that after a period of unparalleled turbulence, it was down to him to impose a period of 'steady as she goes' in order to portray the Scottish ship of state in a more credible light.
He answered his party's call in time of their need, not without personal family ­sacrifice, and he's due gratitude for that.
And it's assuredly not his fault that his party suffers from the same fate which ­inevitably befalls all administrations which somehow survive their 'natural' sell-by date.
Even the apparently impregnable Lady Thatcher had to be elbowed out the door when her trusty lieutenants lined up to say, 'time's up ducks'. Those who continue to laud her extended period in office seem to suffer from false memory syndrome. Many in her party continue to worship at her posthumous shrine. In Scotland, however, she was as welcome as the average pandemic.
One of the things which has kept the SNP in power these many years has been the lack of a credible alternative. However desperate Anas Sarwar may be to usher his family over the door of Bute House, it's still not easy to see where his other big hitters will come from outside of his ever-articulate deputy Jackie Baillie who has long, and ­perhaps wisely, eschewed the top job.
The Tories, who barely hung on to their deposit at the last time of asking, are hardly destined to mount any kind of takeover – they're much more likely to be ­summoning a cab from the rank to house their ­diminishing troops. Never has a flush been more ­evidently busted.
Alba have yet to make any kind of ­impact at the ballot box, a fate hardly helped by the loss of their leader whose ebullient instincts provided much of their initial excitement.
Their solitary MSP has yet to sail ­under her own colours, though I suspect she might sink without very much trace when she does.
Like all new political parties, Alba have already encountered internal warfare and I rather doubt Kenny MacAskill would have offered his leadership services had he faced a different opponent.
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There is a school of thought that the dawn of Alba helped the SNP by ­attracting a wheen of their most vocal ­critics. It's not a theory to which I ­subscribe, though it has to be said many of them were at the front of the queue when spiteful ­comments were handed out.
I also remain convinced that the ­independence field has become ­altogether too cluttered to encourage any kind of ­coherent, strategic vision. That same hymn sheet from which all indy ­supporters are supposed to sing has become more than a little frayed round the edges.
However, if Swinney reneges on his pledge to serve another full five years if elected next year, the obvious question is who should inherit a chalice which is more than slightly poisoned by recent and historic events.
Changing a leader without changing tactics is not of itself particularly useful. They tried that once before without much success, you may recall, while Swinney is in charge for the second time; the first not exactly an unbridled triumph. Nor his stint at education.
Right now there is the obvious need not just to close the gap between those who favour independence and those who are at least nominally SNP supporters, and the requirement to persuade doubters that independence is overwhelmingly in our national interest.
These are not easy tricks to pull off, and they will need both a considerable ­political skillset and an ability to ­persuade erstwhile adherents that you are serious about independence, the very foundation of the party.
It will also require an appetite for ­compromise among those of us who ­cannot immediately finger a flaw-free ­candidate, but have an overriding need to see a proper, and properly urgent, ­campaign take flight. One which can ­encapsulate the core message of why ­independence matters so much.
The queue of contenders is not a lengthy one, it must be conceded. Stephen Flynn may well have the gift of the gab but has yet to win a seat at Holyrood. Kate Forbes, who came a close second in the last contest, suffered badly because of her beliefs.
I have little time for those in her party who clutched their pearls very publicly at the thought of her religious views, despite being very well aware of them during her ministerial years. Personally, I'm much more hostile about her enthusiasm for freeports.
There was much merriment in the comments section of the column which proposed Màiri McAllan as an obvious candidate, not just because of her ­relative inexperience, but because she was ­considered too wedded to the ­internal forces of top-down control.
There are not a few folks around who ­remember when SNP conference ­decisions by the actual membership were regarded as tablets of stone.
Stephen Gethins is another name which floats into the frame. He too has yet to get his feet under a Holyrood desk and is something of a clone of the effortlessly ­polite incumbent. Bright guy though.
The unpalatable truth is that none of us knows how anyone will perform in the heat of battle.
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There are those who grow into ­leadership roles and those whose weaknesses are exposed by them. Think Boris Johnson. Think Liz Truss. (How the ­latter with her monotonous delivery ever ­enchanted the Tory faithful is one of life's enduring mysteries.) Johnson, meanwhile, with his loose relationship to the truth thoroughly deserves his mini ­Donald Trump moniker.
What is crystal clear though is that the status quo neither excites the faithful, nor persuades the naysayers. It is said that Joe Biden left it too late to give ­Kamala ­Harris a fighting chance of winning. Some will argue that with less than a year to the 2026 poll, Scotland too can't afford to change horses in midstream.
Yet what other route is there to persuading Scottish voters that a fresh face with, importantly, a fresh team, can deliver what improvements are possible without losing the Westminster straitjacket?
There's little doubt in my mind that nothing less than root and branch reform of a tiring party will let it recover enough of its mojo to enthuse those desperate to feel that there is a clear direction of travel being outlined.
Sure, time is short. All the more ­reason to use it wisely and not be afraid to ­redraw the map radically. Everything about ­Reform UK is risible from them being a policy-free zone to their total lack of ­anything resembling a Scottish sensibility.
At its helm is a man who has been in more parties than Boris. His USP is to create an air of wholly undeserved excitement around him. We certainly don't need a Nigel Farage. Heaven forfend! But we could use some excitement.