2025 NBA Finals preview: Thunder-Pacers key matchups, X-factors and more

New York Times

01-06-2025

The NBA Finals matchup is set. One team seemed destined to be here all season long. The other is hoping April and May momentum leads to hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, and the Indiana Pacers, the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, are the two teams whose title dreams haven't been dashed this season. We're still five days away from Game 1 in Oklahoma City, but The Athletic's Eric Nehm and Kelly Iko got together a little early to provide a look at the series ahead.
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• Game 1: June 5, 8:30 p.m., at Oklahoma City
• Game 2: June 8, 8 p.m., at Oklahoma City
• Game 3: June 11, 8:30 p.m., at Indiana
• Game 4: June 13, 8:30 p.m., at Indiana
• Game 5*: June 16, 8:30 p.m., at Oklahoma City
• Game 6*: June 19, 8:30 p.m., at Indiana
• Game 7*: June 22, 8 p.m., at Oklahoma City
* if necessary
What happened in Indiana in December? Despite playing without both Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso, the Thunder made their way to Indianapolis and ended the Pacers' five-game win streak with a 120-114 comeback victory. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was spectacular with 45 points, seven rebounds and eight assists, while Tyrese Haliburton managed only four points and eight assists. Aaron Nesmith did not play for the Pacers, and that may have had something to do with Indiana's defensive struggles, as the Thunder put together a 17-7 run to close the game. While both teams posted solid shooting percentages, the Thunder ultimately took six more shots because they forced the Pacers into 11 turnovers, while committing only three of their own. — Eric Nehm
What happened in OKC in March? Oklahoma City, amid an eight-game winning streak and having won 15 of its last 16 games, used a dominant second and third quarter — scoring 73 points — to breeze past a feisty, fast Indiana unit 132-111. Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 33 points, but Oklahoma City's floor spacing was the biggest theme in this one, as the Thunder connected on 17 3s (hitting 47.2 percent of them). From an overall offensive standpoint, this was an aesthetically pleasing game; the Pacers finished with 27 assists, while the Thunder dished out 26. Oklahoma City also scored 58 points in the paint, and that inside-outside dominance gave the Thunder the edge. — Kelly Iko
Nehm: Watch for Haliburton's ability to conduct offense against the Thunder's elite defense.
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Anthony Edwards, one of the league's budding young stars, found himself describing the Thunder's defense as '15 puppets on one string' after running into a wall of Oklahoma City defenders for five games in the Western Conference finals. Edwards was rarely able to find space, while also being forced to play through one of the league's most physical defenses.
That is the same problem that awaits Haliburton in the NBA Finals and we saw exactly why that caused problems in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals. With their backs against the wall, the New York Knicks came out with a desperate effort and turned up the physicality and ball pressure on Haliburton and effectively took the Pacers' All-NBA point guard out of the game. After filling up the stat sheet with a superstar stat line in Game 4, Haliburton managed only eight points and six assists in Game 5 and the Pacers shot 40.5 percent from the field, their worst shooting percentage of any playoff game this season.
While that Game 5 performance was an outlier thus far for them in the postseason, the defense the Pacers saw from the Knicks is the standard the Thunder have brought to the table on a nightly basis this entire season. The Thunder were the league's best regular-season defense by a sizable gap and the same has been true in the postseason. They have two players that were named to this year's All-Defensive teams — first team for Lu Dort and second team for Jalen Williams — with a few more players (Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein) that would have been worthy of consideration if they had played in more games.
The Thunder's calling card is physical defense and that means the Pacers' free-flowing, fast-paced offense, captained by Haliburton, will need to be prepared to play through contact to move from one action to the next and not get bogged down by handsy defenders or attempting to passively attack switches.
Look at this possession from their Dec. 26 matchup:
The Thunder have enough defensive talent that the Pacers will not be able to find easy targets as they often did against the New York Knicks and then focus their offensive action on confusing and exposing those porous defenders. Oklahoma City's switches will give Indiana opportunities with advantageous mismatches, but the Pacers cannot get stuck trying to exploit those matchups and playing outside of their normal game.
They'll need to maintain their discipline and keep the ball moving, as they have done so well in most games this postseason, and play through the Thunder's physicality.
Is defense impossible to play today's spread-out NBA? Not to the Thunder. They've found the secret to putting the clamps on their opponents.
Iko: Keep an eye on the Jalen Williams/Isaiah Hartenstein tandem versus Myles Turner and drop coverage.
Williams earned both All-NBA and All-Defensive honors this season, and his emergence as a reliable two-way secondary scorer and creator has been one of the biggest reasons for Oklahoma City's success.
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During the Thunder's postseason run, Williams' number has been called on numerous occasions as defenses naturally key in on Gilgeous-Alexander. There have been a few counters that head coach Mark Daigneault has implemented — for example, using one of Williams or Dort to initiate offense in the half court, allowing Gilgeous-Alexander to catch the ball on the move (and hopefully against a mismatch) — but expect a heavy dosage of Williams with the ball in his hands.
The possession below from the late March meeting illustrates exactly how Williams can be an impactful component against Indiana's defensive coverage. Over the past two seasons, Williams' proficiency in the midrange has become an integral part of the Thunder's half-court setup, finishing the regular season in the 93rd and 96th percentile in midrange attempts, according to Cleaning the Glass. (There's also an important caveat to this series: the arrival of Holmgren, who didn't feature against the Pacers this season because of injury.)
Hartenstein is an underrated screen setter with a large frame and is adept at essentially forcing switches. Because of how Indiana will use Turner in defending pick-and-roll scenarios (drop coverage), Williams should have the freedom to choose whether or not he wants to exploit a mismatch:
Or force Turner to choose between stepping up to contest a potential pull-up or hanging closer to the rim. His indecisiveness could cost the Pacers on key possessions:
Outside of Turner, Indiana doesn't boast a ton of rim protection, so it would behoove the Thunder to involve him in as much action as possible. In the March meeting, Williams finished the game with 18 points and six assists on 7-of-14 shooting. If the conference finals are a good reference point, expect Williams to be even more aggressive than what the Pacers are used to — whether it's creating a shot for himself or a teammate.
Nehm: For the Pacers, it's Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard.
Indiana has two players who have been named to All-Star and All-NBA teams. Haliburton is the engine that runs the Pacers' spectacular offensive attack, and Pascal Siakam is the do-it-all forward who has taken Indiana's offense and defense to elite levels during the last two postseasons. Those two take care of the big-picture production every team needs its stars to handle, but Nesmith and Nembhard have often provided the heart and soul of the Pacers' effort, which includes a physical edge on defense and clutch playmaking on offense. Their effort is going to be essential again in the NBA Finals.
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When these two teams met on March 29, the Pacers started the game with Nembhard covering Gilgeous-Alexander and Nesmith taking the early defensive responsibility for Williams. It seems fair to expect that those will be the matchups when this series gets underway June 5, but Nesmith will likely be the second option on Gilgeous-Alexander. In that Oklahoma City blowout win in March, Gilgeous-Alexander drew four fouls against Nembhard and one against Nesmith. One of the fouls by Nembhard came in the form of a take foul at the end of the second quarter, but the point stands: Nembhard and Nesmith will need to find a way to frustrate the MVP without racking up fouls.
Avoiding foul trouble will be important because both Nembhard and Nesmith have been vital to the Pacers' offensive production throughout this postseason run. The beauty of the Pacers' offense is that, while Haliburton conducts it beautifully and Siakam is as steady as they come, the rest of the roster has shown an ability to take advantage of openings presented by opposing defenses, even if those chances have come against elite defensive talents.
Watch Nesmith make a play here against the Knicks' OG Anunoby, who finished one spot outside of this year's All-Defensive Team voting, after Haliburton bent the defense slightly in Game 3 of the East finals:
If the Pacers stand any chance of beating the Thunder, they will need the heart and soul of their roster to make massive contributions on both ends.
Iko: For the Thunder, it's their transition defense.
The more you examine this matchup, you'll find that there are several similarities between the teams. During the regular season, the Pacers averaged 17.5 fast-break points per game, compared to the Thunder's 16.1. (Both teams also mirror each other in points in the paint.)
In the playoffs, Indiana and Oklahoma City have separated themselves from the pack in part due to their ability to limit opposing teams from scoring in transition. According to NBA.com tracking data, entering Thursday, the Pacers have allowed just 8.9 points per game in transition, first among playoff teams. The Thunder are second at 9.1.
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Given that both teams play at breakneck speed, it certainly helps that, on routine occasions, the Thunder possess All-Defensive talents in Williams and Dort, who can cover ground and prevent what would be advantageous scoring opportunities. The Pacers have also quietly regressed in their overall power play proficiency from last season, which occurs in situations where Indiana has a plus-1 numbers advantage on the break.
This series could come down to how often the Thunder find themselves defending transition plays where they are down two men. In those chances, the Pacers are still elite — scoring 1.371 points per chance with the second-highest frequency.
Nehm: Thunder in 6 … This Pacers team deserves respect. They have been able to find solutions to every problem presented to them this postseason because of the talent on their roster and the cohesiveness of their group, fostered by Rick Carlisle, one of the NBA's best coaches. All of that, however, might not end up being enough against the Thunder, who ran away with the league's best regular-season record and breezed through the West bracket.
Iko: Thunder in 5 … The West semifinals against the Denver Nuggets, which went seven games, will be the closest any team will get to eliminating Oklahoma City. This will be an entertaining series, and I believe the Pacers have what it takes to shock the world and steal Game 1 on the road. But the Thunder's utter dismantling of the Wolves in five games should serve as a reminder of the two-way wrecking ball that this team is. SGA is on another level, Williams has ascended as well, and their defense is simply too aggressive, too dominant and too versatile to fail.
Tyrese Haliburton is unique in every single way as a playmaker. Because of that, so are his Indiana Pacers.
(Top photo of Isaiah Hartenstein and Pascal Siakam: William Purnell / Getty Images)