EDITORIAL: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's strategy of denial won't keep Australia secure
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute's report on national defence spending makes for sombre reading.
'We are confronted simultaneously by the rise of aggressive authoritarian powers, multiple conflicts around the world, persistent and evolving terrorism, foreign interference and the normalisation of cyberwarfare,' ASPI executive director Justin Bassi wrote.
And yet, we are woefully under-prepared to respond to any potential crisis in the near to medium term.
There are massive spending projects on the way, including acquiring new frigates, and nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS partnership.
But the first of those ships and subs, essential as they are, aren't scheduled for delivery until well into the 2030s.
Until then we risk being left with a 'paper ADF that lacks the readiness and size to meet near-term threats', according to ASPI analysis.
We have a problem now, and a solution decades down the track will come too late.
The report advocates for urgent acquisition of air and missile defence systems, long-range strike munitions, autonomous systems.
Anthony Albanese's response to this warning was to dismiss it as a work of hysterical partisan hackery.
'Well, that's what they do, isn't it? ASPI. I mean seriously, they need to, I think, have a look at themselves as well and the way that they conduct themselves in debates,' he said. It seems his is a strategy of denial.
ASPI, given its close connections to the ADF and the defence industry, is naturally hawkish, particularly on China. That doesn't make it wrong. Its warnings on China have been proved prescient by China's growing antagonism of Australia. Deliberate provocations earlier this year such as the circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese spy ships, and unannounced live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea are designed as intimidatory shows of military might.
Parades of ministers, including the Prime Minister, acknowledge we are living in 'uncertain times'.
So Mr Albanese's refusal to take ASPI's warnings seriously is concerning.
Much of the debate on defence spending gets caught up on a handful of numbers — what is the percentage of GDP we can or should be spending on building and maintaining our defence capability?
But even bucketloads of money won't ensure our nation's security unless it is backed up with a cohesive and apt plan.
There's little doubt that many of the issues highlighted in the ASPI report — including low morale affecting personnel recruitment and retention — are real. Successive governments have failed to come up with solutions.
Australia's defence strategy has long been centred on the premise that if under threat, we can rely on the Americans to help us. US President Donald Trump, however, had made it clear he expects America's allies to take a greater stake in their own defence. That's a warning Mr Albanese doesn't have the luxury of dismissing so easily.
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"Sentiment around the greenback remains negative and it continues to look vulnerable to further bad news on the fiscal and trade policy fronts." On Monday, the dollar had dipped 0.2 per cent on the yen to $143.79 , while the euro edged up a fraction to $1.1353 . The greenback also slipped 0.1 per cent on the Canadian dollar to $1.3727, getting no tailwind from Trump's threat of 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel exports. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.6 per cent to $US3310 ($A5,147) an ounce , having lost 1.9 per cent last week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase. Brent rose $US1.07 ($A1.66) to $US63.85 ($A99.28) a barrel, while US crude gained $US1.18 ($A1.83) to $US61.95 ($A96.33) per barrel. Asian share markets have made a wary start to the week as investors navigate the shifting sands of White House tariff policy, while awaiting key US jobs data and a widely expected cut in European interest rates. There was little obvious reaction to President Donald Trump's threat late on Friday to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50 per cent, beginning on June 4, a sudden twist that drew the ire of European Union negotiators. Speaking on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump would soon speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron out a dispute over critical minerals. White House officials continued to play down a court ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from US trading partners. "The court ruling will complicate the path ahead on trade policy, but there remains an ample set of provisions available to the administration to deliver its desired results," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. "There is a commitment to maintaining a minimum US tariff rate of at least 10 per cent and imposing further sector tariff increases," he added. "An increase in ASEAN to discourage transhipment looks likely, and the bias for higher tariffs on US-EU trade persists." Markets will be particularly interested to see if Trump goes ahead with the 50 per cent tariff on Wednesday, or backs off as he has done so often before. In the meantime, caution reigned and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan went flat. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1 per cent on Monday, while South Korean stocks dipped 0.1 per cent. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2 per cent and Nasdaq futures lost 0.3 per cent. The S&P climbed 6.2 per cent in May, while the Nasdaq rallied 9.6 per cent on hopes final import levies will be far lower than the initial sky-high levels. Front-running the tariffs has already caused wild swings in the economy, with a contraction in the first quarter likely turning into a jump this quarter as imports fall back. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is running at an annualised 3.8 per cent, though analysts assume this will slow sharply in the second half of the year. Data this week on US manufacturing and jobs will offer a timely reading on the pulse of activity, with payrolls seen rising 130,000 in May while unemployment stays at 4.2 per cent. A rise in unemployment is one of the few developments that could get the Federal Reserve to start thinking of easing policy again, with investors having largely given up on a cut this month or next. A move in September is seen at around a 75 per cent chance, though Fed officials have stopped well short of endorsing such pricing. There are at least 11 Fed speakers on the diary for this week, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Monday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that cuts remain possible later this year as he saw downside risks to economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation from the tariffs. A softer jobs report would be a relief for the Treasury market, where 30-year yields continue to flirt with the five per cent barrier as investors demand a higher premium to offset the ever-expanding supply of debt. The Senate this week will start considering a tax-and-spending bill that will add an estimated $US3.8 trillion ($A5.9 trillion) to the federal government's $US36.2 trillion ($A56.3 trillion) in debt. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0 per cent on Thursday, while markets will be sensitive to guidance on the chance of another move as early as July. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and markets imply a 76 per cent chance it will hold rates at 2.75 per cent, while sounding dovish on the future given the tariff-fuelled risk of recession there. Widening rate spreads have so far offered only limited support to the US dollar. "The greenback remains near the lower end of its post-2022 range and considerably weaker than interest rate differentials would imply," noted Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. "Sentiment around the greenback remains negative and it continues to look vulnerable to further bad news on the fiscal and trade policy fronts." On Monday, the dollar had dipped 0.2 per cent on the yen to $143.79 , while the euro edged up a fraction to $1.1353 . The greenback also slipped 0.1 per cent on the Canadian dollar to $1.3727, getting no tailwind from Trump's threat of 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel exports. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.6 per cent to $US3310 ($A5,147) an ounce , having lost 1.9 per cent last week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase. Brent rose $US1.07 ($A1.66) to $US63.85 ($A99.28) a barrel, while US crude gained $US1.18 ($A1.83) to $US61.95 ($A96.33) per barrel. Asian share markets have made a wary start to the week as investors navigate the shifting sands of White House tariff policy, while awaiting key US jobs data and a widely expected cut in European interest rates. There was little obvious reaction to President Donald Trump's threat late on Friday to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50 per cent, beginning on June 4, a sudden twist that drew the ire of European Union negotiators. Speaking on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump would soon speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron out a dispute over critical minerals. White House officials continued to play down a court ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from US trading partners. "The court ruling will complicate the path ahead on trade policy, but there remains an ample set of provisions available to the administration to deliver its desired results," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. "There is a commitment to maintaining a minimum US tariff rate of at least 10 per cent and imposing further sector tariff increases," he added. "An increase in ASEAN to discourage transhipment looks likely, and the bias for higher tariffs on US-EU trade persists." Markets will be particularly interested to see if Trump goes ahead with the 50 per cent tariff on Wednesday, or backs off as he has done so often before. In the meantime, caution reigned and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan went flat. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1 per cent on Monday, while South Korean stocks dipped 0.1 per cent. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2 per cent and Nasdaq futures lost 0.3 per cent. The S&P climbed 6.2 per cent in May, while the Nasdaq rallied 9.6 per cent on hopes final import levies will be far lower than the initial sky-high levels. Front-running the tariffs has already caused wild swings in the economy, with a contraction in the first quarter likely turning into a jump this quarter as imports fall back. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is running at an annualised 3.8 per cent, though analysts assume this will slow sharply in the second half of the year. Data this week on US manufacturing and jobs will offer a timely reading on the pulse of activity, with payrolls seen rising 130,000 in May while unemployment stays at 4.2 per cent. A rise in unemployment is one of the few developments that could get the Federal Reserve to start thinking of easing policy again, with investors having largely given up on a cut this month or next. A move in September is seen at around a 75 per cent chance, though Fed officials have stopped well short of endorsing such pricing. There are at least 11 Fed speakers on the diary for this week, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Monday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that cuts remain possible later this year as he saw downside risks to economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation from the tariffs. A softer jobs report would be a relief for the Treasury market, where 30-year yields continue to flirt with the five per cent barrier as investors demand a higher premium to offset the ever-expanding supply of debt. The Senate this week will start considering a tax-and-spending bill that will add an estimated $US3.8 trillion ($A5.9 trillion) to the federal government's $US36.2 trillion ($A56.3 trillion) in debt. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0 per cent on Thursday, while markets will be sensitive to guidance on the chance of another move as early as July. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and markets imply a 76 per cent chance it will hold rates at 2.75 per cent, while sounding dovish on the future given the tariff-fuelled risk of recession there. Widening rate spreads have so far offered only limited support to the US dollar. "The greenback remains near the lower end of its post-2022 range and considerably weaker than interest rate differentials would imply," noted Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. "Sentiment around the greenback remains negative and it continues to look vulnerable to further bad news on the fiscal and trade policy fronts." On Monday, the dollar had dipped 0.2 per cent on the yen to $143.79 , while the euro edged up a fraction to $1.1353 . The greenback also slipped 0.1 per cent on the Canadian dollar to $1.3727, getting no tailwind from Trump's threat of 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel exports. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.6 per cent to $US3310 ($A5,147) an ounce , having lost 1.9 per cent last week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase. Brent rose $US1.07 ($A1.66) to $US63.85 ($A99.28) a barrel, while US crude gained $US1.18 ($A1.83) to $US61.95 ($A96.33) per barrel.
