Reform's rise is more than a populist revolt
There was no disguising the principal target of Nigel Farage's speech in London. He effectively dismissed the Conservatives as a busted flush and turned his guns fully on Labour.
Electorally this made sense. At the general election, Reform UK placed second in 89 Labour seats across the country, with many located in the North East of England, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and South Wales. Reform's by-election victory in Runcorn shows that few Labour seats are safe should the party maintain the momentum it has shown in recent months.
Mr Farage believes a great shift is taking place in British politics on a par with the decline of the Liberal Party 100 years ago and its replacement by Labour. He sees Reform supplanting the Conservatives as the main party of the Right.
'They have had a good run for 200 years but it is over,' he said.
That sounds a touch hubristic. The Conservatives may have slumped to their worst ever result but they have been written off before only to recover. However, the big difference with past steep slumps in Tory fortunes, as in 1906 and 1997, is that they now have a serious challenger to their Right while also facing a threat from the Lib Dems to their Left.
Mr Farage has calculated that this marks the end of the road for the Tories whose policy programme during 14 years in office failed to differ significantly from Labour's. Taxes rose to record levels, net zero goals were set by Tory ministers, immigration soared and 'woke' ideas took root. Mr Farage's pitch is that he will end all of these.
To appeal to Labour voters he said the two-child benefit cap should be removed and the winter fuel allowance restored to all pensioners. In addition, no tax would be paid on the first £20,000 of income ostensibly to encourage people on benefits to work. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said this would cost between £50 billion and £80 billion. There would also be a new transferable marriage tax allowance on the first £25,000 of earnings to encourage bigger families.
Mr Farage said this would be paid for by ending net zero, greater efficiencies in local government and Whitehall, scrapping quangos and emptying hotels of illegal migrants, saving £350 billion. Many will remain sceptical of Reform's policies. But Mr Farage has boosted membership and pushed his party ahead in the polls. British politics now has a serious contender for power that can no longer be dismissed as a fringe populist movement.
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