Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction, odds: 2025 NBA Finals pick, best bets

New York Post

a day ago

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It's not the NBA Finals anyone envisioned, but two of the league's smallest markets are competing for a ring in 2025.
Oklahoma City is a massive -800 series favorite at bet365, with the Pacers sitting at +550.
These are the second-longest odds we have seen in an NBA Finals matchup since 2005, with the only bigger favorites being the 2017-18 Warriors, who were -1075 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in his final year before heading to Hollywood.
In Game 1, the Pacers are big 9.5-point road underdogs with the moneyline coming in at +340. Indiana has been excellent on the road, going 6-2 away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse this postseason.
It will require a herculean effort to replicate that against a Thunder team that is 80-18 between the regular season and playoffs.
We've talked about the Pacers' ability to dominate late in games, but some cracks in the armor reared their ugly heads at the back-end of that Knicks series.
For starters, the bench appeared to give the Pacers some problems once now ex-Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau opened up his lineups and gave some much-needed minutes to Landry Shamet and Delon Wright.
Tyrese Haliburton warms up prior to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs against the New York Knicks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on May 31, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Getty Images
Now, imagine Wright and Shamet being replaced with Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace and you have a tough time wearing down your opposition as the Pacers did the Knicks.
The Thunder have too many pieces that they can call on if some of their starters need a rest so I suspect Oklahoma City wins this series rather easily, at worst in six games, but likely before that.
After posting a strong net rating through two rounds of the playoffs and early on against the Knicks, the Pacers cratered to the end the series and have a 0.0 net rating in final quarters during the playoffs.
Indiana is 12-4 in the fourth quarter during the playoffs, the same record as the Thunder, but all wins are not created equal.
Twelve minutes played against the Denver Nuggets is not the same as 12 minutes played against the Knicks or Heat.
Betting on the NBA?
Look to Oklahoma City to win this series going away, thanks to suffocating defensive pressure and strong depth at all positions that should work against Indiana's run-and-gun strategy.
Live bet the Thunder if the young team gets first-half jitters and you can get them at plus-money and back their fourth quarter against the spread price of -1.5 (-108).
THE PLAY: Thunder fourth quarter -1.5 (-108, FanDuel)
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