Transgender people are about 1% of the US population. Yet they're a political lightning rod

Independent

30-03-2025

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump used contentiousness around transgender people's access to sports and bathrooms to fire up conservative voters and sway undecideds. And in his first months back in office, Trump has pushed the issue further, erasing mention of transgender people on government websites and passports and trying to remove them from the military.
It's a contradiction of numbers that reveals a deep cultural divide: Transgender people make up less than 1% of the U.S. population, but they have become a major piece on the political chess board — particularly Trump's.
For transgender people and their allies — along with several judges who have ruled against Trump in response to legal challenges — it's a matter of civil rights for a small group. But many Americans believe those rights had grown too expansive.
The president's spotlight is giving Monday's Transgender Day of Visibility a different tenor this year.
'What he wants is to scare us into being invisible again,' said Rachel Crandall Crocker, the executive director of Transgender Michigan who organized the first Day of Visibility 16 years ago. 'We have to show him we won't go back.'
So why has this small population found itself with such an outsized role in American politics?
The focus on transgender people is part of a long-running campaign
Trump's actions reflect a constellation of beliefs that transgender people are dangerous, are men trying to get access to women's spaces or are pushed into gender changes that they will later regret.
The American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Medical Association and other major medical groups have said that gender-affirming treatments can be medically necessary and are supported by evidence.
Zein Murib, an associate professor of political science and women's, gender and sexuality studies at Fordham University, said there has been a decades-old effort 'to reinstate Christian nationalist principles as the law of the land' that increased its focus on transgender people after a 2015 U.S. Supreme Court ruling recognizing same-sex marriage nationwide. It took a few years, but some of the positions gained traction.
One factor: Proponents of the restrictions lean into broader questions of fairness and safety, which draw more public attention.
Sports bans and bathroom laws are linked to protecting spaces for women and girls, even as studies have found transgender women are far more likely to be victims of violence. Efforts to bar schools from encouraging gender transition are connected to protecting parental rights. And bans on gender-affirming care rely partly on the idea that people might later regret it, though studies have found that to be rare.
Since 2020, about half the states passed laws barring transgender people from sports competitions aligning with their gender and have banned or restricted gender-affirming medical care for minors. At least 14 have adopted laws restricting which bathrooms transgender people can use in certain buildings.
In February, Iowa became the first state to remove protections for transgender people from civil rights law.
It's not just political gamesmanship. 'I think that whether or not that's a politically viable strategy is second to the immediate impact that that is going to have on trans people," Fordham's Murib said.
Many voters think transgender rights have gone too far
More than half of voters in the 2024 election — 55% — said support for transgender rights in the United States has gone too far, according to AP VoteCast. About 2 in 10 said the level of support has been about right, and a similar share said support hasn't gone far enough.
Nevertheless, AP VoteCast also found voters were split on laws banning gender-affirming medical treatment, such as puberty blockers or hormone therapy, for minors. Just over half were opposed to these laws, while just under half were in favor.
Trump voters were overwhelmingly likely to say support for transgender rights has gone too far, while Kamala Harris' voters were more divided. About 4 in 10 Harris voters said support for transgender rights has not gone far enough, while 36% said it's been about right and about one-quarter said it's gone too far.
A survey this year from the Pew Research Center found Americans, including Democrats, have become more slightly more supportive of requiring transgender athletes to compete on teams that match their sex at birth and more supportive on bans on gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors since 2022. Most Democrats still oppose those kinds of measures, though.
Leor Sapir, a fellow at Manhattan Institute, a right-leaning think tank, says Trump's and Republicans ' positions have given them a political edge.
'They are putting their opponents, their Democratic opponents, in a very unfavorable position by having to decide between catering to their progressive, activist base or their median voter,' he said.
Not everyone agrees.
'People across the political spectrum agree that in fact, the major crises and major problems facing the United States right now is not the existence and civic participation of trans people,' said Olivia Hunt, director of federal policy for Advocates for Trans Equality.
And in the same election that saw Trump return to the presidency, Delaware voters elected Sarah McBride, the first transgender member of Congress.
The full political fallout remains to be seen
Paisley Currah, a political science professor at the City University of New York, said conservatives go after transgender people in part because they make up such a small portion of the population.
'Because it's so small, it's relatively unknown,' said Currah, who is transgender. 'And then Trump has kind of used trans to signify what's wrong with the left. You know: 'It's just too crazy. It's too woke.''
But Democratic politicians also know the population is relatively small, said Seth Masket, director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, who is writing a book about the GOP.
'A lot of Democrats are not particularly fired up to defend this group,' Masket said, citing polling.
For Republicans, the overall support of transgender rights is evidence they are out of step with the times.
'The Democrat Party continues to find themselves on the wrong side of overwhelmingly popular issues, and it proves just how out of touch they are with Americans," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said.
Some of that message may be getting through. In early March, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, launched his new podcast by speaking out against allowing transgender women and girls competing in women's and girls sports.
And several other Democratic officials have said the party spends too much effort supporting transgender rights. Others, including U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, have said they oppose transgender athletes in girls and women's sports.
Jay Jones, the student government president at Howard University and a transgender woman, said her peers are largely accepting of transgender people.
'The Trump administration is trying to weaponize people of the trans experience … to help give an archenemy or a scapegoat,' she said. But 'I don't think that is going to be as successful as the strategy as he thinks that it will be.'
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