Minnesota is about to get hit by another blizzard: Where and how much snow?
By Wednesday morning, there will be parts of southern Minnesota covered in a fresh, weighted blanket of wet snow. Yes, another snowstorm is coming. No, it's still not clear if the Twin Cities will get in on the action.
A winter storm watch has been issued for late Tuesday into Wednesday. The Twin Cities is not included, but Fairmont, Mankato, Albert Lea, Faribault, Red Wing and Eau Claire are in the watch. In the Minnesota portion of the watch, blizzard conditions will be possible as winds will be whipping over 40 mph.
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"Another strong spring system will track through the Upper Midwest late Tuesday into Wednesday. Similar to our other March storms, this will start as rain before transitioning to snow," the National Weather Service says.
"Unlike our last storm, this should fall as rain and snow with no strong signal for sleet or freezing rain. Heavy snow rates of an inch per hour are possible within the watch area. The whole watch area will see reductions to visibility from falling and blowing snow. However the winds across southern Minnesota will be higher, therefore this area has the best chance for blizzard conditions."
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While the models still aren't in complete agreement with the track of the storm, the weather service is favoring a path that would bring the heaviest snow just southeast of the metro.
The watch area is not set in stone. In fact, the forecast discussion from the NWS Twin Cities mentions that a northward expansion of the watch is possible. However, it is set in stone that there will be a very tight snowfall gradient on the northwest side of the storm.
"Much drier air on the northern fringe of this system means there will likely be a VERY tight gradient of snow/liquid amounts. For example, the northwest metro may struggle to see 0.5" of accumulation while the southwest metro could exceed 6" on the high end," the forecast discussion reads.
The European and Canadian models are in agreement with the track represented by the winter storm watch. They're both delivering a narrow band of 6+ inches of snow.
The American and NAM models, however, bring that track a bit further northeast. In that scenario, the Twin Cities gets in on the heavy snow.
The models will continue updating over the next 48 hours, and it shouldn't be long before there's a consensus outlook on where the heaviest snow will fall. Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard will have a fresh update midday today, so check back for updates.
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