Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6 prediction, how to watch, TV channel, odds

Fox Sports

15-05-2025

Data Skrive
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are meeting in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, with a decisive Game 6 up next. Oklahoma City is a 4.5-point favorite against Denver when the Thunder face off against the Nuggets on Thursday. The matchup's point total is 216.5.
Here's everything you need to know about the Thunder-Nuggets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information. Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Information, TV Channel & Odds When: Thursday, May 15, 2025 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
TV: ESPN Thunder vs Nuggets Betting Information Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Thunder -4.5 -115 -105 216.5 -110 -110 -185 +154 Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction
ATS Pick: Thunder (- 4.5)
O/U Pick: Over (216.5)
Score Prediction: Thunder 120 - Nuggets 111 Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Insights The Thunder and their opponent have combined to score over 216.5 points, the current matchup's point total, in 60 of 82 games this season.
The Nuggets games have gone over 216.5 total points scored in 70 of 82 total matchups this season.
The Thunder and the Nuggets combine to average 24.8 more points per game than the over/under of 216.5 set for this matchup.
Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 224.5 points per game, 8.0 more than the point total in this matchup.
Oklahoma City has been chosen as the favorite in 78 games this year and has walked away with the win 65 times (83.3%) in those games.
Denver has won in 10, or 52.6%, of the 19 contests it has been named as the odds-on underdog this year.
After the last nine head-to-head matchups, Oklahoma City has a 5-4 record against Denver.
The Nuggets have a 6-3 advantage against the spread when playing the Thunder.
Against the spread, the Thunder have covered for four straight games, and were favored in all of those games.
The Nuggets have been favored in each of their past three contests, and covered the spread in all three. Thunder Recent Trends The Thunder have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span.
Oklahoma City's average total over the last 10 games is 11.8 points more than the 216.5 over/under listed for this matchup.
The Thunder have 53 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
So far this season, Oklahoma City has been installed as favorites by a 4.5-point margin or more 67 times and are 42-22-3 ATS in those contests.
The Thunder have eclipsed the over/under in 54.9% of their opportunities this year (45 times in 82 games with a set point total).
The Thunder score just 3.6 more points per game (120.5) than the Nuggets allow (116.9).
Oklahoma City has a 38-12-1 record against the spread and a 46-5 record overall when scoring more than 116.9 points.
This season, the Thunder have a 48.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.6% higher than the 46.6% of shots the Nuggets' opponents have made.
The Thunder have done a better job covering the spread in home games (28-11-3) than they have in road games (25-14-1).
Looking at over/unders, Oklahoma City hits the over more consistently in home games, as it has eclipsed the total 25 times in 42 opportunities this season (59.5%). On the road, it has hit the over 20 times in 40 opportunities (50%).
The Thunder have fared better as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, posting a home record of 35-6, compared to going 30-7 in road games. Thunder Recent Stats Stat Average Rank Points Scored 120.5 4 Points Allowed 107.6 3 Rebounds 44.8 11 Assists 26.9 12 Steals 10.3 1 Blocks 5.7 2 Thunder Leaders Shai Gilgeous-Alexander puts up 32.7 points, 6.4 assists and 5 boards per game.
Jalen Williams puts up 21.6 points, 5.3 boards and 5.1 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.6 steals (seventh in league) and 0.7 blocks.
Isaiah Hartenstein averages 11.2 points, 10.7 boards and 3.8 assists per contest, shooting 58.1% from the field.
Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 1.8 assists and 3.9 rebounds.
Luguentz Dort averages 10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Defensively he averages 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks. Thunder Player Props Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG (Reg. Season) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.5 -115 32.7 Jalen Williams 21.5 -105 21.6 Chet Holmgren 13.5 -130 15.0 Isaiah Hartenstein 10.5 -120 11.2 Alex Caruso 8.5 -105 7.1 Nuggets Recent Trends The Nuggets are 8-2 against the spread and 5-5 overall over their past 10 contests.
Denver and its opponents have combined to score an average of 219.5 combined points over its last 10 games, 3.0 more than the 216.5 over/under in this matchup.
The Nuggets have 38 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
So far this season, Denver has been installed as underdogs by a 4.5-point margin or more 10 times and are 5-5 ATS in those matchups.
Nuggets games this season have hit the over on 49 of 82 set point totals (59.8%).
The Nuggets' 120.8 points per game are 13.2 more points than the 107.6 the Thunder allow to opponents.
When it scores more than 107.6 points, Denver is 38-30 against the spread and 49-19 overall.
The Nuggets are shooting 50.6% from the field, seven% higher than the 43.6% the Thunder's opponents have shot this season.
The Nuggets have been better against the spread on the road (20-21-0) than at home (18-23-0) this season.
Looking at the over/under, Denver's games have finished over more often at home (26 of 41, 63.4%) than away (23 of 41, 56.1%).
In 2024-25 when moneyline favorites, the Nuggets have a better winning percentage at home (.649, 24-13 record) than away (.615, 16-10). Nuggets Recent Stats Stat Average Rank Points Scored 120.8 3 Points Allowed 116.9 24 Rebounds 45.7 4 Assists 31 1 Steals 8 17 Blocks 4.9 15 Nuggets Leaders On a per-game basis, Nikola Jokic gives the Nuggets 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists. He also averages 1.8 steals (second in league) and 0.6 blocked shots.
The Nuggets are getting 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists per game from Jamal Murray this year.
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 18.2 points, 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest. He is making 50.4% of his shots from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range, with 2.5 triples per contest.
The Nuggets are receiving 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game from Christian Braun this season.
Russell Westbrook is putting up 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per contest. He is draining 44.9% of his shots from the floor and 32.3% from 3-point range, with 1.3 triples per game. Nuggets Player Props Points O/U Points Over Odds PPG (Reg. Season) Nikola Jokic 27.5 -120 29.6 Jamal Murray 21.5 -110 21.4 Aaron Gordon 16.5 -105 14.7 Christian Braun 12.5 -115 15.4 Russell Westbrook 9.5 -105 13.3
FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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