Your Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals has arrived, so it's time to make predictions!

New York Times

a day ago

The Bounce Newsletter | This is The Athletic's daily NBA newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Bounce directly in your inbox.
On this day in 1991, Michael Jordan had another one of his iconic moments. While coming down the lane against the Lakers, Jordan went up with the right hand, switched hands in midair to the left and finished the layup – absolutely legendary.
Who will be crowned the new NBA champions?
It's finally here. We've had a bunch of nights off in a row, and, after watching the overtime thriller for Game 1 of the Oilers beating the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals, the NBA Finals have to make sure they come out of the gates swinging. The Pacers are a massive underdog to the Thunder. The Thunder are minus-700 to win the Finals, with the Pacers coming in at plus-500 to become champs, per BetMGM.
Advertisement
It makes sense this would be so lopsided on the surface. The Thunder won 68 games in the regular season, and we'll remind you they set the record for both margin of victory and double-digit wins in a season. They also have one of the best defenses we've seen in the last 25 years, and the league's MVP. On the flip side of that, the Pacers are a team that snuck up on most people for the second straight year. They won 50 games and finished fourth in the East. You can chalk their postseason breakthrough up to injuries for the other team, but it's fair to say they were beating Milwaukee and Cleveland, regardless.
Both teams thrive off transition buckets and both teams don't turn the ball over. Both teams love to play fast. Both teams have a dynamic lead guard guiding their identities. There's a lot of fascinating plot points to this series, but ultimately, the Thunder do everything the Pacers do, just better. That doesn't always mean the Thunder will win the series
The key will be Game 1 tonight (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC). The Pacers have to win this game. They've won every Game 1 in this playoff run so far, including two on the road in Cleveland and New York. I'm not sure they can afford to go down in the series right away to a Thunder team that thrives off success and confidence. This series should be a lot more competitive than people are expecting. Thunder in five (plus-200) and Thunder in four (plus-325) are the two favorite outcomes at BetMGM.
So, what's going to happen? I do think the Pacers win Game 1, but I'm not sure it'll bring them to the promised land in getting their first championship anyway. Give me the Thunder in six and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the Finals MVP. That's a boring pick, unless this going as many as six games is too spicy for some. But I think we're getting a mostly great series.
Rick Carlisle thought Knicks news was fake
🏀 Unbelievable news? Rick Carlisle didn't believe that Tom Thibodeau got fired. Thought it was 'fake AI.'
🏀 Budding bias. It's actually possible the small market teams have an edge now. It's all about connection.
⛹️ New energy. Between the Pacers' finals run and Caitlin Clark's popularity, the Hoosier State is enjoying a basketball revival.
⭐ Adjusting to bright lights. Tyrese Haliburton uses 'extra fuel' to lead Pacers to championship contention.
Advertisement
🇨🇦 About brotherhood. Lu Dort and Bennedict Mathurin have a bond that helped them reach the NBA Finals.
🏀 Latest on Zion. Some very serious allegations have been made against Zion Williamson. The Pelicans are going forward with him.
🎧 Tuning in. Today's 'NBA Daily' ponders how the Pacers can hurt the Thunder during the finals.
Is such a move a step toward winning a title?
Some of the basketball world was shocked earlier this week when the Knicks kicked Tom Thibodeau to the curb, despite bringing them to their first Eastern Conference finals appearance in 25 years. The Knicks were the most successful they've been in two-plus decades, but decided that wasn't good enough for Thibs to keep his job. Such is life in the NBA coaching world. We see coaches lose their jobs two years after winning a title regularly. We've seen a Coach of the Year get fired before he accepted the award!
A successful coach getting inexplicably fired isn't anything new. But does it actually lead a team down the path to getting the ultimate prize? That's what franchises are hoping when they make this move. That the successful coach was a stepping stone to the next zone, which is a banner ceremony, parade and those championship rings that are the size of SEC offensive lineman.
I wanted to look at both sides of this. What does it look like for the team making the change once the new coach comes in? And what does it look like for the coach after they've been fired?
I decided to go all the way back to Paul Westhead, who was fired by the Lakers in the 1983-84 season, only to be replaced by assistant coach Pat Riley. Some of that was Lakers owner Dr. Jerry Buss saying he wanted to fire him and some of that was Magic Johnson wanted him gone. Regardless, it was the right move because Riley led them to a championship that season, and three more beyond it.
Since then, there have been 10 noteworthy high-level winning coaches or award-winning coaches who have been in a similar situation … sort of.
In many of these cases, it did work out! We've also seen some situations where we're not sure how it'll end. Mike Budenholzer, Frank Vogel and Michael Malone all got fired two years after winning an NBA championship in recent seasons.
As for the coaches themselves, it's a pretty mixed bag.
Doug Collins never really had success again. Adelman got fired after a short stint with the Warriors before leading the Kings to eight straight playoff appearances. Del Harris never got another head-coaching position after the Lakers fired him. Carlisle went to Indiana and had a good run before finding his way to Dallas, where he won a championship in 2011.
Advertisement
When Adelman was fired from Sacramento, he went to Houston for a solid few years, and then struggled to bring winning basketball to Minnesota in four seasons. Mitchell has struggled to find a coaching job since, and was given one of the coldest firings ever in 2016, when he took over for the late Flip Saunders and then was fired immediately and disrespectfully right as the season ended.
Jackson and Blatt haven't coached since, and Van Gundy and Casey both found brief forays with Detroit.
Overall, it does seem to benefit the teams, rather than the coaches. Maybe that's encouraging for the Knicks and their fans.
The story of the greatest players in NBA history. In 100 riveting profiles, top basketball writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NBA in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NBA history.
You shared, explained views on the Thunder
Yesterday, I was befuddled that, over the course of this playoff run, I've found that many people in my friend bubble and on social media seem to truly dislike this Thunder squad. There are a bunch of reasons given why, but I wanted to see if this might extend beyond my bubble and into the Bounce-verse. So we polled you and these are the results.
We also asked you for possible write-ins, and you didn't disappoint!
How do you feel about this Thunder team?
It was good to see just over half the polling audience for this newsletter either likes them or likes watching them play. It is a truly dominant and fun style of basketball. About one-third of the voters here are really against them.
Thunder becoming next NBA dynasty: good or bad?
I am pro-dynasty and anti-parity when it comes to the NBA, so I'm with the 36.6 percent here. I'm a little surprised that so many people are neutral on this. I love dynasties being built up and then being torn down.
(As a note: These percentages are write-ins so yes we know they don't all add up! Multiple answers were allowed.)
If you don't like them, why not?
We also gave the opportunity for you to give your own answers and these were the ones I found most intriguing and/or entertaining:
'There's no one player people can latch onto. SGA is very good but has exactly no personality.'
'They swept my team in the first round.'
'It's corporate basketball. They are executing a strict script written by statistical analysis. It's like a manager calling pitches from the dugout. The sideline interview crap is Exhibit A: it feels workshopped and focus group tested – totally inauthentic.'
Advertisement
'As a Celtics fan, this was the same vibes that I dealt with last year. When one team is ripping through the playoffs & heavy NBA Finals favorites, everyone else is kind of like 'Well, they're not fun.''
'I'm from Seattle, and the Thunder feel like a slap in the face. Combined with the vagueness of expansion and the general disrespect the NBA has shown Seattle in the last 15 years, I just can't get behind them. Respect and honor your past, don't try to act like you came from nothing.'
'They feel like they skipped the line and never cut their teeth being a scrappy underdog team. Is this fair? Probably not. Thanasis Antetokounmpo.'
Can't get through one damn poll without one of you mentioning Giannis' brother.
Streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.