Can nuclear powers India and Pakistan ease tensions?
You're reading the Prompt 2025 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox.
On Wednesday morning, India launched strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for an earlier terrorist attack in India-administered Kashmir — an attack Pakistan denies it had anything to do with. The two nuclear powers have long fought over control of Kashmir, but these are the first skirmishes between them in six years. Can India and Pakistan quash tensions before more violence erupts? I'm joined by my Post colleagues Rana Ayyub and Max Boot to discuss.
💬 💬 💬
Damir Marusic So, we all knew India would eventually hit Pakistan after the terrorist attacks in Pahalgam. Now, they have. How worried are the two of you that this will spiral further?
Max Boot Only moderately worried. Leaders in both Islamabad and New Delhi are nationalistic, but they are not suicidal. Neither side wants to spark a nuclear war. Since 1945, nuclear weapons have been a force for strategic stability; that's a big reason why World War III never broke out between the United States and the U.S.S.R., and why India and Pakistan have not fought a major war since both countries acquired nuclear weapons. This crisis will certainly test the logic of deterrence, but I don't expect it to break down. 🤞
Rana Ayyub I see a predictable pattern here: provocation, retaliation, international concern, then de-escalation without any resolution. And both countries will play to their domestic constituencies. Unfortunately, we continue to be hostage to our history and the legacy of partition.
Story continues below advertisement
Advertisement
Damir Regarding domestic constituencies, that's what seems like the big unknown. The Pahalgam attacks fueled an astounding level of anti-Muslim sentiment on Indian social media. Do you think India's response has satisfied these passions?
Rana Any terror attack in India fuels anti-Muslim rhetoric and attacks, especially against Kashmiri students.
Max I am hopeful that India's strikes have satisfied Indian public opinion, and that the Pakistani response (there are claims of Indian jets being shot down, and France confirmed to CNN that at least one Rafale jet had been lost) will satisfy Pakistani opinion, so we can all move on.
Rana But we should not forget that the collateral damage in the fight between India and Pakistan has been the ordinary Kashmiri, whose voices often go unheard in this fog of war.
Damir The strikes that hit Punjab in Pakistan proper (not Pakistan-controlled Kashmir) were the first since the 1971 war. And though they were reportedly targeting the headquarters of Islamist terror groups, they demolished mosques. Alongside reports of several dead children, opinion in Pakistan is now likely to be also inflamed. Will authorities be able to contain it there?
Rana I have seen several conflicting statements from the Pakistani establishment. The prime minister has claimed that civilians were being targeted, which is partly true. But the chief of the Pakistani militant group Jaish has said that they have lost 12 members. So, India is citing that statement to say that it was precise, not civilian, targeting.
Max Public opinion is certainly important, but Pakistani policy is effectively determined by the army, not by elected politicians. The army wants to maintain its public standing as a defender of Pakistan, which justifies its de facto control of the state. Presumably, Gen. Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief of staff, is less likely to cater to public opinion than Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. But who knows?
Story continues below advertisement
Advertisement
Rana Munir made several hawkish statements regarding Kashmir just before the Pahalgam attack, invoking the 'two-nation' theory. He was extremely unpopular in Pakistan and now will use this opportunity to redeem himself.
Damir Yes, I understand Munir's standing has only gone up since this crisis kicked off.
Max Which is what you would expect: In most nations, the army's standing goes up in wartime, at least initially. But I doubt Munir wants to be the one responsible for kicking off a nuclear conflict.
Damir Let me ask a different question: How would you rate the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts? It appears Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been working the phones. Given how far the United States has drifted away from Pakistan and toward India, just how much influence does the U.S. even have at this point?
Max I do worry that the administration is trying to do too many things at once. President Donald Trump is dealing with a million other subjects (including peacemaking with Russia and Ukraine, nuclear negotiations with Iran, and trade talks with the entire world). Even Rubio now has 4 different jobs (including serving as archivist of the United States!). This is the kind of crisis that rewards focused diplomacy on the part of the U.S., but I question how much focus the administration can bring to this crisis.
Rana Speaking of Trump, can someone please fact-check him about India-Pakistan history? He has been calling it a 1,500-year-old fight.
Max The good news is that the U.S. is far from the only country that has a stake in limiting this conflict. China and Saudi Arabia, among others, also have a useful role to play. And China has more leverage with Pakistan these days than Washington does.
Rana Yes, China has been explicit in its support of Pakistan. And Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been meeting leaders of the gulf countries and has managed to garner support.
Story continues below advertisement
Advertisement
Max This could be an opportunity for Beijing and Washington to work together to limit the risk of escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict. If so, that would represent a rare area of common ground in the midst of the trade war started by Trump.
Rana One aspect that troubled me: No questions asked of the Modi government post-Pahalgam attack over security lapses and intelligence failure in the most militarized zone in the world. I have reported long enough to see the Manmohan Singh government hauled over the coals for similar attacks.
Damir Very good point. Final question: Is there a path forward to a less dangerous dynamic between these nuclear powers?
Max It would be wonderful if this crisis, once the present passions cool a bit, would lead both India and Pakistan to think about how to de-escalate future conflicts and enhance communication between their two militaries. More ambitious would be if this crisis led to a diplomatic process to resolve the competing claims over Kashmir. (Can Trump add this to Steve Witkoff's ever-expanding portfolio?!?)
Rana Unfortunately, like I said in the beginning, this pattern of escalation and de-escalation is likely to continue. We can try our best to be global powers, but our unresolved history will keep getting in the way.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNN
3 hours ago
- CNN
Carney invites Modi to G7 summit despite strained ties between Canada and India
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Friday invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 summit in Alberta later this month, an invitation Modi accepted despite strained ties between the countries. The countries expelled each other's top diplomats last year over the killing of a Sikh Canadian activist in Canada and allegations of other crimes. The invitation prompted anger from the World Sikh Organization of Canada, which wrote to Carney in May asking him not to invite Modi. Tensions remain high between Canada and India over accusations about Indian government agents being involved in the murder of a Canadian activist for Sikh separatism in British Columbia in 2023. Carney extended the invitation to Modi in a phone call between the two leaders on Friday. The summit runs from June 15 to 17. Carney noted Canada is in the role of G7 chair and said there are important discussions that India should be a part of. 'India is the fifth-largest economy in the world, the most populous country in the world and central to supply chains,' Carney told reporters, adding that there has been some progress on law enforcement dialogue between the two countries. 'I extended the invitation to Prime Minister Modi and, in that context, he has accepted,' Carney said. Carney said there is a legal process underway in the killing of the Canadian Sikh activist and said he would not comment on the case, when asked by a reporter if he thought Modi was involved. The tit-for-tat expulsions came after Canada told India that its top diplomat in the country is a person of interest in the 2023 assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and that police have uncovered evidence of an intensifying campaign against Canadian citizens by agents of the Indian government. Modi said he was glad to receive a call from Carney and congratulated him on his recent election victory. 'As vibrant democracies bound by deep people-to-people ties, India and Canada will work together with renewed vigour, guided by mutual respect and shared interests. Look forward to our meeting at the summit,' Modi said in a social media statement. Nijjar, 45, was fatally shot in his pickup truck after he left the Sikh temple he led in Surrey, British Columbia. An Indian-born citizen of Canada, he owned a plumbing business and was a leader in what remains of a once-strong movement to create an independent Sikh homeland. Four Indian nationals living in Canada were charged with Nijjar's murder. Balpreet Singh, legal counsel and spokesperson for the World Sikh Organization of Canada, called Carney's invitation to Modi a 'betrayal of Canadian values.' 'The summit to which Mr. Modi is being invited falls on the anniversary of the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar two years ago,' he said. 'So for us, this is unacceptable, it's shocking and it's a complete reversal of the principled stand that Prime Minister (Justin) Trudeau had taken.' Canada is not the only country that has accused Indian officials of plotting an assassination on foreign soil. In 2023 US prosecutors said an Indian government official directed a failed plot to assassinate another Sikh separatist leader in New York.
Wall Street Journal
3 hours ago
- Wall Street Journal
Anvee Bhutani — Reporting Intern at The Wall Street Journal
Anvee Bhutani is a reporting intern and part of the summer 2025 newsroom intern class at The Wall Street Journal's London bureau. Anvee has reported across four continents, from the aftermath of the Moroccan earthquake and Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon to the U.S.-Mexico border and the Muslim minority in India. At the University of Oxford, her investigation into sexual misconduct by professors who remained in their posts sparked national media coverage and led to university policy reforms. Most recently, she has been a contributing reporter with the New York Times, covering the government crackdown on higher education. Anvee previously worked with the BBC, the Telegraph and Channel 4. She also has interned at CNN and MSNBC, where she was part of the Emmy-nominated 2024 election night coverage. Her bylines have appeared in the Guardian, Teen Vogue and more. A graduate of Columbia Journalism School with honors and the University of Oxford, Anvee was editor in chief of her university paper and served as student body president. She speaks Hindi and Spanish fluently, with working knowledge of French and Arabic.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Lammy seeks to ‘deepen' UK-India ties on New Delhi visit
David Lammy will seek to deepen UK-India economic ties as he visits New Delhi this weekend, saying Britain's recently agreed trade deal with the country is 'just the start of our ambitions'. Trade and migration will be at the top of the agenda for the Foreign Secretary's trip, during which he will meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and external affairs minister S Jaishankar. The Foreign Office said Mr Lammy would also raise 'the recent escalation in tensions following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, and how the welcomed sustained period of peace can be best supported in the interests of stability in the region'. Pakistan and India agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire last month after rising hostilities between the two nuclear-armed rivals followed a deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Ahead of the visit, Mr Lammy said: 'Signing a free trade agreement is just the start of our ambitions – we're building a modern partnership with India for a new global era. 'We want to go even further to foster an even closer relationship and co-operate when it comes to delivering growth, fostering innovative technology, tackling the climate crisis and delivering our migration priorities, and providing greater security for our people.' The Foreign Office said talks in New Delhi would aim to 'deepen and diversify the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries'. 'The Foreign Secretary will also welcome progress in our migration partnership, including ongoing work on safeguarding citizens and securing borders in both countries,' it said.
