Placating China won't prevent it from invading Taiwan
A survey from last November found that 34.7% of Taiwanese believed that being pro-United States would provoke China to invade Taiwan.
Although the number decreased by 6.5 points from 2023, these figures are alarming. They show that many Taiwanese people are misreading the conditions under which China would launch a major invasion, misperceiving the enemy as an irrational actor that defies realist logic.
There is no reason to believe that China would invade when the costs, namely the likelihood of a U.S. intervention, are high. This misperception poses significant risks to Taiwan's deterrence against a Chinese invasion.
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Yomiuri Shimbun
10 hours ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Approach by China Military Aircraft: Japan Expressing Concern Is Not Enough to Resolve Incidents
One misstep could have led to a grave situation. The Chinese military's actions are utterly beyond the pale, and the Japanese government should voice its strong protest. A fighter jet that took off from the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong sailing off the southern coast of Okinawa Prefecture in the Pacific Ocean tailed a Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3C patrol plane twice, approaching the Japanese plane and getting as close as about 45 meters on both occasions. The Chinese aircraft followed the Japanese plane for about 40 minutes on June 7 and about 80 minutes on the following day. It also carried out a dangerous maneuver, flying across the MSDF plane's path about 900 meters ahead of it on June 8. The MSDF plane was engaged in surveillance operations of the Chinese aircraft carrier when the abnormal approach occurred. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has explained that the reconnaissance activities by the MSDF aircraft were the root cause of the risk, as if Japan were to blame for the incidents. However, the Chinese aircraft carrier was found to have been sailing inside Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). It is only natural for the Self-Defense Forces to monitor the carrier's movements. Beijing's claim is completely illogical. Japan has expressed its concern to China, but given the gravity of the situation, it should lodge a protest and demand an apology. The problem is not limited to the fact that these abnormal approaches are dangerous. The Chinese military had another aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, operating in waters near Minami-Torishima Island inside the EEZ at the same time the Shandong was active. Both carriers had aircraft repeatedly taking off and landing from them. Apparently, the Chinese military was carrying out exercises to enhance its capabilities to operate aircraft carriers and fighter jets in the Pacific Ocean, which is far from China. The Chinese military has regarded the area from the Ogasawara Islands to the south of Guam as the 'second island chain' and the area from the Nansei Islands to the Philippines, which is closer to China, as the 'first island chain.' In the event of a contingency, China plans to employ a strategy of blocking U.S. military movements between these two chains to prevent U.S. forces from entering areas west of the first island chain. This was the first time that China had two aircraft carriers simultaneously deployed in the Pacific. It had one of the carriers advance east of the second island chain, which also marked the first such development. Beijing's move is seen as an attempt to expand its range of action and bring the western Pacific under its influence. China's usual tactic is to try to turn its claims into a fait accompli by repeatedly making unilateral attempts to change the status quo. It has been confirmed that mineral resources such as cobalt and nickel exist in large quantities in the seabed around Minami-Torishima Island. Perhaps China has ambitions to acquire these abundant resources for itself. In recent years, the SDF has been working to strengthen the defense system for the Nansei Islands to deal with China's hegemonic activities. The SDF will also need to allocate more resources to surveillance operations for islands in the Pacific. (From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 16, 2025)
Yomiuri Shimbun
11 hours ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Japan Suspects Chinese Flattops Conducted Drills against U.S.
Courtesy of the Joint Staff of the Defense Ministry The Chinese Navy aircraft carrier Liaoning is seen in the waters near Iwoto Island on Sunday. TOKYO (Jiji Press) — Japan's Defense Ministry suspects that Chinese aircraft carriers recently found operating in the Pacific may have conducted drills for countering U.S. forces in the event of a Taiwan contingency. The ministry last week announced for the first time that it had spotted two Chinese aircraft carriers operating simultaneously in Pacific waters near Japan. The vessels sailed within Japan's exclusive economic zone near remote islands that are part of the Ogasawara chain. In addition, there were incidents in which a Chinese fighter jet based on one of the flattops flew dangerously close to a Maritime Self-Defense Force plane. The ministry is analyzing China's intentions behind these operations, sources said. Of the Chinese aircraft carriers, the Liaoning crossed for the first time the so-called second island chain, which links the Ogasawara Islands and the U.S. territory of Guam, sailing within the EEZ around Minamitorishima on June 7. China is said to regard the second island chain as a defense line to keep at bay U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines coming from Guam and elsewhere in the event of a Taiwan contingency. According to ministry sources, the Liaoning and the other flattop, Shandong, may have conducted exercises for countering U.S. forces in the event of a Taiwan contingency, with one playing the role of a U.S. aircraft carrier and the other practicing intercepting it. Regarding the close encounters between the Japanese and Chinese planes, some observers say that China may have made the moves because it did not want Japanese aircraft to approach the air defense zone established by the carrier fleet. The Shandong operated in the EEZ around Okinotorishima on June 9, with the departures and arrivals of carrier-based aircraft confirmed. In the EEZ around Okinotorishima, a Chinese marine research ship operated without Japan's consent in late May. Although the Japanese government protested, China maintained its position of not recognizing the EEZ, saying that Okinotorishima is not an island but rocks. 'It is necessary to examine whether there is any connection between the marine research ship and the Chinese military behavior in the EEZ,' a ruling party member said. The sea area around Minamitorishima where the Liaoning sailed is believed to hold significant seabed resources. According to the International Seabed Authority, China plans to test-mine for manganese nodules, which contain minor metals, from the seabed in international waters outside Japan's EEZ around Minamitorishima under exploration rights granted by the ISA. 'We will take all possible measures for warning and surveillance and deter any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force,' Defense Minister Gen Nakatani told a press conference Friday. 'We will proceed with a detailed analysis' of the latest movements of Chinese aircraft carriers, he added.
Japan Times
11 hours ago
- Japan Times
Washington divorcing SpaceX just isn't possible right now
The public spat between U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the world's richest person, was unsettling given the power these two men wield and how their verbal tussle quickly escalated to issues that directly affect national security. Trump floated the cancellation of all NASA and Department of Defense contracts with SpaceX, the space-launch and satellite-internet company Musk founded in 2002. Musk countered that he would withdraw the services of the Dragon space capsule, which is the only option now, except for resorting to the Russians, for ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station. While the details of the social-media fracas will fade over time, the power dynamics on which the threats were based won't. The U.S. government depends on SpaceX for low-cost space launches while competitors lag behind. SpaceX needs the government, ranging from the mundane (approving launch permits) to the grandiose (funding to put a human on Mars). Perhaps this realization that this dustup would only lead to mutual damage was a catalyst for Trump uncharacteristically letting go of the issue and Musk atypically admitting that he went too far in his X attacks. As the dust settles, it's clear that both NASA and the Defense Department would benefit from more launch competition from the legacy space companies, such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and startups, including Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and Rocket Lab. It's unsettling to think that a mercurial-tempered billionaire has the sole hand on the SpaceX tiller and could potentially make rash decisions that impact the nation — like leaving astronauts stranded. Steve Bannon, a Trump ally and voice of the extreme end of the MAGA movement, in his bombastic style said the government should confiscate SpaceX and deport Musk, even though he's a naturalized U.S. citizen. Such drastic measures would be counterproductive, destroying the entrepreneurial spirit that made SpaceX a success while giving pause to foreign companies seeking to build assets in the U.S. An uneasy truce between Trump and Musk seems to be taking hold, but the fallout already has real consequences for SpaceX. Trump scrapped the nomination of Jared Isaacman, the billionaire space enthusiast and Musk ally, to head NASA. Trump's next pick may not be as favorable to Musk's ambition of reaching Mars and perhaps will seek to bolster alternatives to reduce that dependence on SpaceX. SpaceX's Starship spacecraft lifts off from Starbase, Texas, on May 27. The U.S. had 145 successful space launches last year and SpaceX accounted for 134 of them. China was the second-most-active launcher, with 66, and Russia followed with 17. | REUTERS Musk will regret even more his outbursts on social media, including linking Trump to the accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, if the president picks someone with ties to the legacy space industry to lead NASA instead of an outsider entrepreneur like Isaacman. Still, it would be hard for the government to step back from SpaceX. Apart from the large lead on launches, SpaceX has built a satellite network that's 10 times as large as its nearest competitor. This has empowered SpaceX's Starlink unit to gobble up market share with its low-cost fast internet service, which has won over customers such as United Airlines and Carnival at the expense of tradition satellite providers such as Viasat and Europe's Eutelsat Communications. The reason is simple: SpaceX was the first to design a reusable rocket that drastically cuts launch costs. The U.S. had 145 successful launches last year and SpaceX accounted for 134 of them, according to statistics compiled by Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. China was the second-most-active launcher, with 66, and Russia followed with 17. In a nutshell, SpaceX is the dominant player for space launches and satellite internet, and its lead will most likely grow. The company inevitably will play a crucial role in the Defense Department's effort to create a Golden Dome, a space-based system for early detection and destruction of intercontinental ballistic missiles. This dominance is not the case for Musk's other enterprises, including Tesla, xAI and Neuralink, which all face robust competitors and have little national-security implications. While the valuation of Tesla teeters on successful rollouts of robotaxis and robots, SpaceX's road map to riches is much more certain. The argument that the federal government should cut back on contracts with SpaceX and its reliance on a single man runs into two problems. The first is that there's no viable substitute. United Launch Alliance — a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin — has the proven Atlas V rocket, but the cost to launch is more than $100 million, according to reports, compared with less than $70 million for SpaceX's Falcon 9. ULA has a new, larger rocket called Vulcan, but it has just recently been certified for flight and won't have a reusable booster, although it's designed to recover the engines in the future. Boeing's Starliner spacecraft — the alternative to SpaceX's Dragon capsule — ran into problems with its maiden voyage last year to take astronauts to the space station and returned empty. Starliner won't be available for flight until next year, leaving Dragon, which has made 46 visits to the ISS, as the only option. The second problem with trying to strangle SpaceX by withholding federal contracts is that the company would continue to launch for commercial customers and for itself, accelerating the expansion of its satellite network. Starlink has about 7,000 operational satellites compared with about 650 for OneWeb, which Eutelsat bought for $3.4 billion in 2023. Tellingly, the last launch of 20 OneWeb satellites in October was aboard a SpaceX rocket. which is seeking to build a satellite network, faces the same problem of paying higher launch costs or using SpaceX rockets. While legacy space companies in the U.S. and Europe haven't kept pace with reusable rocket technology, startups haven't fared much better. Blue Origin, the space company financed by Amazon Chairman Jeff Bezos, fired its New Glenn reusable rocket into space for the first time in January, but failed to capture the booster. It's second launch has been delayed until August. Rocket Lab is also pursuing a reusable rocket, but for now can only handle small payloads. Meanwhile, SpaceX is testing its giant Starship rocket designed for NASA's missions to take astronauts to the moon and Mars, but so far has had more failures than success. SpaceX is attempting to reuse the lower and upper stages of this rocket, which would lower even more the launch cost per kilogram of payload and increase the gap with competitors. For better or worse, Trump and Musk are stuck with each other. While its not ideal for the government to be so reliant on one person, Musk also can't turn his back on its influence and billions of dollars in contracts. They don't have to like each other, but they have little choice but to work together, harmoniously or not. Thomas Black is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the industrial and transportation sectors.
