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Mint
26 minutes ago
- Mint
Stock market strategy: Cautious optimism amid valuation froth, Israel-Iran war; Small-caps, mid-caps still overheated
Indian stock markets have witnessed a strong rally since April, driven by macro tailwinds and investor optimism. However, experts now advise a more measured approach going forward, citing stretched valuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and sector-specific vulnerabilities. Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services, believes that after around a 10% surge in the Nifty 50 since April 9 — when tariff pause news lifted sentiment — the markets are likely to 'pause for breath.' He noted that the valuation comfort has largely dissipated, and the ongoing Middle East conflict due to the Israel-Iran war could act as a trigger for a short-term correction. The Israel-Iran conflict has added a new layer of uncertainty. According to Sen, the most immediate risk for India lies in the spike in crude oil prices, which could impact the current account deficit, fiscal position, and inflation. That said, he believes this shock is likely to be temporary. Structural factors such as the global energy transition and slowing Western economies suggest crude fundamentals remain weak. Foreign portfolio flows may also be volatile in the near term. However, Emkay Global remains confident in India's long-term story. 'Our fundamental thesis on Indian markets is unchanged as of now,' says Sen, although the brokerage will reassess its view if crude remains elevated over the next 2-3 months. On the earnings front, Emkay sees encouraging signs. FY26 Nifty EPS estimates have been stable, and the breadth of downgrades has narrowed significantly. The brokerage expects earnings to recover, driven by aggressive rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and continued commodity softness, which will support margins. 'We believe we are at the bottom of the earnings downgrade cycle and see a possibility of upgrades,' Sen said. Emkay maintains its FY26 and FY27 Nifty EPS estimates at ₹ 1,128 and ₹ 1,294, respectively. From a valuation standpoint, Emkay Global and InCred Equities highlight concerns. The Nifty 50 is trading at 20.9x one-year forward P/E — slightly below the long-term average — but small- and mid-cap (SMID) stocks appear overheated. Emkay notes that 38% of BSE200 stocks now trade above their 5-year average valuation, up sharply from just 12% in April. Still, SMID stocks remain a favored area due to their stronger growth profiles and improving balance sheets. Investors, however, are advised to be selective, particularly when valuations exceed historical averages. InCred Equities has raised its bull-case probability for the market to 35% (from 25%) amid improving macro signals like above-normal monsoon prospects, expected repo rate cuts, and easing oil prices. As a result, it has marginally raised its Nifty target for March 2026 to 25,142 from 24,280 earlier. However, the brokerage warns that the recent broad-based rally has priced in much of the macro optimism, leaving limited short-term upside. Consequently, InCred is turning selective in its stock picks, booking profits in names like Adani Ports & SEZ and Cipla, and initiating coverage on mid-sized banks that benefit from improving liquidity conditions. Both brokerages agree on a more selective and sector-specific approach. Emkay favors Discretionary, Technology, and Materials, while remaining underweight on Financials and Staples. InCred is bullish on mid-sized banks and remains cautious on segments with inflated valuations. The near-term market strategy hinges on managing geopolitical risk, monitoring crude trends, and maintaining earnings discipline — all while navigating a landscape of stretched valuations with careful stock selection. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Hans India
34 minutes ago
- Hans India
Indian stock market opens lower amid weak Asian cues
The Indian benchmark indices opened lower on Tuesday amid weak Asian cues as selling was seen in the auto, IT and pharma sectors in the early trade. At around 9.28 am, Sensex was trading 186.35 points or 0.23 per cent down at 81,609.80 while the Nifty declined 68.20 point or 0.27 per cent at 24,878.30 Nifty Bank was down 30.10 points or 0.05 per cent at 55,914.80. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 58,732.10 after dropping 36.40 points or 0.06 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 18,482.90 after declining 66.30 points or 0.36 per cent. According to analysts, US President Donald Trump's latest comments on Iran kept investors on edge regarding the geopolitical outlook. Despite the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, stock markets are steady and resilient. The decline in the US volatility index CBOE suggests that markets are unlikely to correct sharply unless the conflict takes a dramatic turn for the worse, said market experts. "The main contributor to the market resilience is the retail investors using every dip in the market as a buying opportunity. Valuations do not appear to deter retail investors," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Investments Limited. Meanwhile, in the Sensex pack, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC, PowerGrid, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, SBI, TCS and HCL Tech were the top gainers. Whereas, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the top losers. On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers as they sold equities worth Rs 2,287.69 crore on June 16, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 5,607.64 crore. In the Asian markets, Bangkok, Jakarta, Japan and Seoul were trading in green, whereas Hong Kong and China were trading in red. In the last trading session, Dow Jones in the US closed at 42,515.09, up 317.30 points, or 0.75 per cent. The S&P 500 ended with a gain of 56.14 points, or 0.94 per cent, at 6,033.11 and the Nasdaq closed at 19,701.21, up 294.39 points, or 1.52 per cent. The US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting is scheduled to begin on Tuesday and conclude on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at their current level when the meeting concludes. "Comments from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future path of interest rates will be closely scrutinised, particularly given recent signs of cooling inflation coupled with continued economic resilience," said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities.
Time of India
43 minutes ago
- Time of India
Stock market update: Nifty Pharma index falls 0.94% in a weak market
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel NEW DELHI: The Nifty Pharma index traded negative around 10:20AM(IST)on Tuesday in a weak Pharma Ltd.(up 0.92 per cent), Biocon Ltd.(up 0.91 per cent), J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(up 0.25 per cent) and Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(up 0.01 per cent) were among the top Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.(down 1.95 per cent), Lupin Ltd.(down 1.78 per cent), Natco Pharma Ltd.(down 1.4 per cent), Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.(down 0.91 per cent) and Zydus Lifesciences Ltd.(down 0.9 per cent) were the top losers on the Nifty Pharma index was down 0.94 per cent at 21831.4 at the time of writing this NSE Nifty50 index was down 65.85 points at 24880.65, while the BSE Sensex was down 210.76 points at the 50 stocks in the Nifty index, 14 were trading in the green, while 36 were in the of Vishal Mega Mart, Vodafone Idea, RattanIndia Power, JP Power and YES Bank were among the most traded shares on the of Federal Mogul, Subros, Steel Strips, Niraj Ispat Ind. and AXISCADES Engg Tech hit their fresh 52-week highs in today's trade, while Navkar Builders, Sadhana Nitro, Bluspring Enterprises Ltd., Shyam Century Ferrous and Kesoram Inds. hit fresh 52-week lows in trade.
