India and Pakistan face a new crisis. Here's a look at their history of conflict
India accused Pakistan of backing the massacre, in which 26 men, mostly Indian Hindus, were killed, a charge Pakistan denies.
Soldiers on each side have exchanged fire along their de facto border since the killings, with each blaming the other for shooting first. Both countries expelled diplomats and citizens, ordered the border shut and closed their airspace to each other.
Here's a look at multiple conflicts between the two countries since their bloody partition in 1947:
1947 — Months after British India is partitioned into a predominantly Hindu India and a Muslim-majority Pakistan, the two young nations fight their first war over control of Muslim-majority Kashmir, then a kingdom ruled by a Hindu monarch. The war killed thousands before ending in 1948.
1949 — A UN-brokered ceasefire line leaves Kashmir divided between India and Pakistan, with the promise of a UN-sponsored vote that would enable the region's people to decide whether to be part Pakistan or India. That vote has never been held.
1965 — The rivals fight their second war over Kashmir. Thousands are killed in inconclusive fighting before a ceasefire is brokered by the Soviet Union and the United States. Negotiations in Tashkent run until January 1966, ending in both sides giving back territories they seized during the war and withdrawing their armies.
1971 — India intervenes in a war over the independence of East Pakistan, which ends with the territory breaking away as the new country of Bangladesh. An estimated 3 million people are killed in the conflict.
1972 — India and Pakistan sign a peace accord, renaming the ceasefire line in Kashmir as the Line of Contro. Both sides deploy more troops along the frontier, turning it into a heavily fortified stretch of military outposts.
1989 — Kashmiri dissidents, with support from Pakistan, launch a bloody rebellion against Indian rule. Indian troops respond with brutal measures, intensifying diplomatic and military skirmishes between New Delhi and Islamabad.
1999 — Pakistani soldiers and Kashmiri fighters seize several Himalayan peaks on the Indian side. India responds with aerial bombardments and artillery. At least 1000 combatants are killed over 10 weeks, and a worried world fears the fighting could escalate to nuclear conflict. The US eventually steps in to mediate, ending the fighting.
2016 — Militants sneak into an army base in Indian-controlled Kashmir, killing at least 18 soldiers. India responds by sending special forces inside Pakistani-held territory, later claiming to have killed multiple suspected rebels in 'surgical strikes". Pakistan denies that the strikes took place, but it leads to days of major border skirmishes. Combatants and civilians on both sides are killed.
2019 — The two sides again come close to war after a Kashmiri insurgent rams an explosive-laden car into a bus carrying Indian soldiers, killing 40. India carries out airstrikes in Pakistani territory and claims to have struck a militant training facility. Pakistan later shoots down an Indian warplane and captures a pilot. He is later released, de-escalating tensions.
2025 — Militants attack Indian tourists in the region's resort town of Pahalgam and kill 26 men, most of them Hindus. India blames Pakistan, which denies it. India vows revenge on the attackers as tensions rise to their highest point since 2019. Both countries cancel visas for each other's citizens, recall diplomats, shut their only land border crossing and close their airspaces to each other. New Delhi also suspended a crucial water-sharing treaty.
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NZ Herald
a day ago
- NZ Herald
Islamabad has long dreamed of finding enough oil to turn around Pakistan's fortunes
'Who knows,' he mused, 'maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!' The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that Pakistan might hold 9.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil - a figure cited frequently by Pakistani officials to court foreign investors. These reserves have not been proved, cautioned Afia Malik, an energy researcher in Pakistan. The country's proven reserves are far smaller - they place it around 50th globally, behind such countries as Romania, Vietnam, and Brunei. Pakistan produced fewer than 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2023, according to the EIA, far less than the world's top producers. The US, with around 13 million barrels per day, ranked first. After a long history of setbacks and failures, few in Pakistan believe it will ever become an oil exporter. 'Red tape, political interference, and bureaucratic inefficiencies' have deterred foreign investors and limited progress, Malik said. Trump suggested that new investment would come from private US sources. 'We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership,' he wrote. The most ambitious attempt ended in 2019, when a consortium that included ExxonMobil searched off Karachi but found no oil or gas deposits. A Pakistani refiner said last week that it had struck an agreement for its first import of US crude oil. 'As the President said, Pakistan and the US will work together on developing their massive oil reserves, which will strengthen economic security for both of our countries,' White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said. Pakistani officials have welcomed Trump's announcement to resume the search for oil. 'If there's investment coming in from countries like the US, China, others, we would like to welcome that,' Power Minister Awais Leghari told the Washington Post. 'It is good to see that on the radar of President Trump.' Among commentators in Pakistan, disbelief and, in some cases, mockery have prevailed. Some suspect Trump is sending a message to neighbouring India, Pakistan's more populous and more economically influential arch-rival. 'Pakistan may simply be a leverage point, rather than the main beneficiary of this engagement,' political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said. Relations between the Trump Administration and the Indian Government have faltered in recent months over trade. Trump said last week that he will double the tariff on goods from India to 50% because of the country's continued purchase of Russian oil. While some here doubt that Pakistan is a priority to Trump, officials say they have noticed an improvement in relations with Washington. When days of border fighting between India and Pakistan in May threatened to escalate to all-out war, the Administration brokered a ceasefire. Trump hosted powerful army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House, and Islamabad said it would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. The renewed American interest in Pakistan, some analysts suspect, might be less about oil than access to minerals and rare earths. Pakistan is believed to hold large and unexplored deposits of the rare earths that are crucial for consumer electronics and defence technology. Amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China, a key rare earth supplier, the Trump Administration has shown growing interest in Pakistan's mines. US officials attended the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in April. But as with oil, most of Pakistan's mineral deposits are unexplored and could be difficult to exploit. China is building a nearly 3220km road, rail, and pipeline network to link the Chinese border in northern Pakistan, resource-rich western Pakistani provinces and a deep-sea port in the south, but the work has been hampered by growing insecurity. Islamabad is concerned about the rising militancy of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Separatist groups in the southwestern province of Baluchistan, meanwhile, are escalating their fight against the Government. Baluch separatists claimed responsibility last week for an attack on two mining trucks in the province. The militants warned that anyone 'involved in the looting of Baloch national resources' or transporting minerals would be considered a legitimate target. Some former Pakistani officials worry that the rising security challenges are fuelled by a sense of disenfranchisement shared not only by radicalised militants but also ordinary people. When oil or minerals were extracted in the past, locals rarely reaped the rewards. 'Serious efforts were never made to engage them as mutual partners,' said G.A. Sabri, a former top official in the Petroleum Ministry. Sabri hopes Pakistani officials have learned their lesson. But as the Government seeks foreign investment, it has introduced legislation to expand its control over mineral extraction, giving more cause for local grievances. 'When local communities see tangible benefits from exploration,' said Malik, 'they are more likely to take ownership of its security and success.'
NZ Herald
4 days ago
- NZ Herald
US ties with India trampled as Trump hunts goal of ending Russia's war in Ukraine
This week, Trump seemed ready to ditch that relationship. He doubled already hefty tariffs on Indian exports to the US for its steadfast refusal to stop buying oil from Russia, in an effort to pressure Russia to end the war. Trump has accused India of helping Russia finance its war on Ukraine through oil purchases; India has said it needs cheap oil to meet the energy needs of its fast-growing economy. India called the additional tariffs 'unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable', pointing out that it was being punished for doing something — buying Russian oil at a discounted price — that other nations have done, although it didn't mention names. China is the largest buyer of Russian oil, and Turkey has also deepened its energy links with Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, without incurring similar penalties. Analysts said Trump's pressure tactics could damage the long-standing ties between India and the US. 'We are better off together than apart,' said Atul Keshap, a retired US diplomat and president of the US-India Business Council. 'The partnership forged by our elected leaders over the past 25 years is worth preserving and has achieved considerable mutual prosperity and advanced our shared strategic interests.' It's difficult to quantify what exactly America would lose if its relationship with India cools. India is a valuable strategic partner for the US, acting as a counterweight to China. It is also important to many American companies, including Apple, which has shifted some manufacturing of its products to India from China. Ajay Srivastava, a former trade official at the Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think-tank, said the US action 'will push India to reconsider its strategic alignment, deepening ties with Russia, China, and many other countries'. India and the US, with Japan and Australia, are part of a diplomatic partnership called the Quad, set up largely to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. India is planning to host the Quad Leaders' Summit later this year. Trump was expected to attend, although it's now unclear if he will. For India, the costs of a damaged relationship may prove to be higher. Trump's move puts Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a bind. Russia is the source of 45% of its oil imports. If India stops buying Russian oil, accepting higher prices for consumers and domestic manufacturing, it would be politically damaging for Modi's Government. If it ignores Trump's threat and continues buying Russian oil, the hit to India's economy will be far costlier. The higher tariffs could cut India's more than US$86 billion in exports to the US by half, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative, an Indian research group. The US is India's biggest trading partner, and exports account for nearly 20% of India's economy. India ranks only 10th among American trade partners in goods. India has also come to value American backing for its bid to be recognised as a global superpower. Modi has touted his relationship with Trump, courting the US President during his first term in office and calling him a 'true friend'. But that friendship, as many American allies have learned, may mean little when Trump's own priorities are at stake. US President Donald Trump is open to meeting Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the White House said yesterday. Photo / Olga Maltseva, Brendan Smialowski, Frederick Florin / AFP In recent weeks, Trump announced that he had struck deals with Japan, South Korea and the European Union, but even after months of negotiation, India had not reached an agreement. India was reluctant to make concessions on politically sensitive sectors like dairy and agriculture. India also publicly denied Trump's repeated claims that he helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a brief, four-day conflict between the two neighbours in May. India has maintained that the ceasefire was negotiated bilaterally with Pakistan, and Indian leaders bristled at Trump's willingness to insert himself into that bitter rivalry. It is not yet clear whether the punitive tariffs Trump has threatened will ever take effect. In the executive order he issued, Trump said the tariffs would be implemented within a month, but he could modify the order if circumstances changed. The order included a provision that the US would look at other countries' purchases of Russian oil as well. So far, there is no indication that Trump intends to take a similar approach to China. Chinese and US officials are in the middle of sensitive negotiations about potential trade agreements after an initial round of retaliatory tariffs threatened to destabilise the global economy. With his tariff moves against India, Trump is keeping his eye on big strategic goals — a deal with China and keeping the pressure on Moscow before a potential meeting with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, which he disclosed yesterday. Far from being 'a dead economy', as Trump called it, India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world. But its place on the President's list of priorities may be much less certain. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Written by: Anupreeta Das Photograph by: Saumya Khandelwal ©2025 THE NEW YORK TIMES
Otago Daily Times
5 days ago
- Otago Daily Times
Trump's tariffs come into effect
President Donald Trump's higher tariff rates of 10% to 50% on dozens of trading partners kicked in today, testing his strategy for shrinking US trade deficits without massive disruptions to global supply chains, higher inflation and stiff retaliation from trading partners. US Customs and Border Protection agency began collecting the higher tariffs at 4pm (NZ time) after weeks of suspense over Trump's final tariff rates and frantic negotiations with major trading partners that sought to lower them. Goods loaded on to US-bound vessels and in transit before the midnight deadline can enter at lower prior tariff rates before October 5, according to a CBP notice to shippers issued this week. Imports from many countries had previously been subject to a baseline 10% import duty after Trump paused higher rates announced in early April. But since then, Trump has frequently modified his tariff plan, slapping some countries with much higher rates, including 50% for goods from Brazil, 39% from Switzerland, 35% from Canada and 25% from India. He announced a separate 25% tariff on Indian goods on Wednesday to be imposed in 21 days over the South Asian country's purchases of Russian oil. Ahead of the deadline, Trump heralded the "billions of dollars" that will flow into the US, largely from countries that he said had taken advantage of the United States. "THE ONLY THING THAT CAN STOP AMERICA'S GREATNESS WOULD BE A RADICAL LEFT COURT THAT WANTS TO SEE OUR COUNTRY FAIL!" Trump said on Truth Social. Eight major trading partners accounting for about 40% of US trade flows have reached framework deals for trade and investment concessions with Trump, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, reducing their base tariff rates to 15%. Britain won a 10% rate, while Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines secured rate reductions to 19% or 20%. "For those countries, it's less bad news," said William Reinsch, a senior fellow and trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "There'll be some supply chain rearrangement. There'll be a new equilibrium. Prices here will go up, but it'll take a while for that to show up in a major way," Reinsch said. Countries with punishingly high duties, such as India and Canada, "will continue to scramble around trying to fix this," he added. Trump's order has specified that any goods determined to have been trans-shipped from a third country to evade higher US tariffs will be subject to an additional 40% import duty, but his administration has released few details on how these goods would be identified or the provision enforced. Trump's July 31 tariff order imposed duties above 10% on 67 trading partners, while the rate was kept at 10% for those not listed. These import taxes are one part of a multilayered tariff strategy that includes national security-based sectoral tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, autos, steel, aluminum, copper, lumber and other goods. Trump said yesterday the microchip duties could reach 100%. China is on a separate tariff track and will face a potential tariff increase on August 12 unless Trump approves an extension of a prior truce after talks last week in Sweden. He has said he may impose additional tariffs over China's purchases of Russian oil as he seeks to pressure Moscow into ending its war in Ukraine. Financial markets largely shrugged off the new tariffs, with stock markets in Asia at or near record highs while the dollar dipped slightly. REVENUES, PRICE HIKES Trump has touted the vast increase in federal revenues from his import tax collections, which are ultimately paid by companies importing the goods and consumers of end products. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that US tariff revenues could top $300 billion a year. The move will drive average US tariff rates to around 20%, the highest in a century and up from 2.5% when Trump took office in January, the Atlantic Institute estimates. Commerce Department data released last week showed more evidence that tariffs began driving up US prices in June, including for home furnishings and durable household equipment, recreational goods and motor vehicles. Costs from Trump's tariff war are mounting for a wide swath of companies, including bellwethers Caterpillar, Marriott, Molson Coors and Yum Brands. All told, global companies that have reported earnings so far this quarter are looking at a hit of around $US15 billion ($NZ25.17 billion) to profits in 2025, Reuters' global tariff tracker shows.
