Mollycoddling Munir: What's Trump planning with Pakistan military?
Counter-terrorism: A convenient justification?
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In January 2018, then-President Donald Trump began the new year with a blistering tweet aimed at Pakistan. He accused the country of betrayal. "The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!" Trump's administration subsequently suspended security assistance to Pakistan, accusing it of harboring terrorists and undermining US interests in Afghanistan.But now, during his second term in office, there is a remarkable shift in tone and policy. General Michael Kurilla, the head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), recently hailed Pakistan as "a 'phenomenal partner in the counter-terrorism world'. The Pakistani Army Chief, General Asim Munir , is reportedly invited to attend a grand military parade Trump will host on June 14, celebrating the US Army's 250th anniversary, coinciding with his 79th birthday. This is an unmistakable symbol of warming ties. This rapprochement begs the question: Why is the US mollycoddling the very military establishment it once condemned for sheltering terrorists?The official narrative emerging from the US is that Pakistan is once again a vital partner in America's counter-terrorism efforts. Given the resurgence of militant groups like ISIS-K in the region and ongoing instability in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal, Pakistan's geography and intelligence apparatus make it a useful ally. Pakistan offers critical overflight access, potential staging areas, and intelligence cooperation that could help prevent another large-scale terror threat to US interests. General Kurilla has praised Islamabad for extraditing Mohammad Sharifullah aka Jafar, an ISIS-K member, to the US. In March, the US Justice Department charged Sharifullah for his role in the August 2021 suicide bombing at Afghanistan's Kabul international airport.However, this explanation, while plausible, appears overly simplistic given the scale of the diplomatic about-face. There is strong reason to believe that deeper geopolitical considerations are driving the US to re-engage Pakistan's military establishment and they may have little to do with counter-terrorism. Trump's softening attitude towards Pakistan coincided with the country's leaders, including Munir, offering lucrative deals to a cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial, owned by Trump's sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. However, there could be several strategic reasons too for Trump's pivot to Pakistan.One of the most pressing developments in the Middle East is the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, a scenario that seems increasingly imminent. Recent US moves, including the evacuation of non-essential personnel from diplomatic missions and military outposts across the region, suggest serious contingency planning and an imminent attack by Israel in Iran's nuclear facilities.In this context, Pakistan's role could become strategically significant. As a large Muslim-majority country with nuclear capabilities and deep ties in the Islamic world, Pakistan's position during a US-backed or Israeli-led strike on Iran would matter immensely. The US may be seeking to ensure that Pakistan offers covert help such as use of its military bases and assets and remains supportive during a wider regional conflagration that could involve Iranian proxies in the Middle East. Additionally, Pakistan shares a border with Iran through Balochistan, where anti-Iran insurgent groups operate with alleged tacit support from Pakistan. If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, Pakistan could serve as a quiet front for logistical or intelligence operations for the US military planners.Another strategic dimension is the growing Chinese footprint in Pakistan, exemplified by the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For the US, this presents a long-term threat. The US is wary of China gaining a secure land route to the Arabian Sea and potentially leveraging ports like Gwadar for military purposes.Re-engaging Pakistan, especially its powerful military which remains the dominant power over civilian government, offers the US an opportunity to pull Islamabad away from Beijing's orbit. While reversing Pakistan's deepening ties with China may not be feasible, the US can at least aim to diversify Pakistan's dependencies, offering military aid, diplomatic legitimacy and economic incentives in exchange for strategic concessions.While US-India relations have improved considerably in recent years, friction remains, particularly over trade, technology transfer and India's balancing act between the West and Russia. India has resisted aligning fully with the US geopolitical priorities, especially in its reluctance to criticize Russia over Ukraine and its continued oil and weapons trade with Russia.By warming up to Pakistan, the US may be signaling to India that it has other options in South Asia. This could serve as leverage in trade negotiations and defense deals, pressing India to make concessions on tariffs, data localization laws or arms procurement. In effect, the US may be using its outreach to Pakistan as a diplomatic tool to extract more favorable terms from India.In Pakistan, foreign policy, particularly with the US, is often the domain of the military, not the civilian government. By dealing directly with Pakistan's army leadership, the US is engaging with the true power center in Islamabad. The military is not only capable of delivering on security guarantees but also enjoys considerable autonomy and continuity compared to Pakistan's unstable civilian governments.By inviting Army Chief Asim Munir to the high-profile military parade, the US is sending a clear signal -- the bilateral relationship is back, and it is firmly rooted in ties with the military. For Trump, who values transactional diplomacy, dealing with Pakistan's generals may seem like a more predictable and practical option.While the language of counter-terrorism dominates official statements, the US re-engagement with Pakistan is more likely motivated by a confluence of broader strategic imperatives. The Pakistani military, once shunned by Trump for alleged duplicity, is now being courted as a critical player in America's strategic calculus. Trump's volte-face reflects the realpolitik that often defines US foreign policy. If the interests align, yesterday's adversary can be an ally today. The same approach played out in Syria recently. The US removed the $10 million bounty on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Mohammad al-Jolani, after he led a successful offensive, ousting Assad from power in Syria. Trump later met him and praised him too. Trump said the meeting with Sharaa, who he described as a young, attractive guy with a very strong past, was "great".For Pakistan's military, the positive attention from Trump is a big victory. It signals that, despite Trump's past grievances, it remains an indispensable actor in regional geopolitics.
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