India Inflation Eases Further, Giving RBI Room for More Cuts
India's inflation cooled further in April, creating room for deeper interest rate cuts by the central bank to bolster growth in Asia's third largest economy.
The consumer price index rose 3.16% from a year earlier, data from the statistics ministry showed Tuesday. That compares with a 3.2% increase predicted by economists in a Bloomberg survey and a 3.34% reading in March.
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Nomura Flags Risk of Sharp Yen Rally on US-Japan Policy Pressure
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Yahoo
22 minutes ago
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Trump tariffs live updates: Trump, Xi Jinping speak as focus turns to US trade deals
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday, and both countries pledged to restart tariff and trade talks in the coming days. Trump hailed the call as "positive," with both leaders inviting the other to visit their respective countries. Chinese state media said Xi urged Trump to remove "negative" trade measures on his country. The call came after weeks of Trump publicly pushing for the talk, as US-China tensions have risen in the aftermath of the countries' trade truce reached in mid-May in Geneva. Both countries have accused the other of breaching that truce while ratcheting up pressure on other issues. The US and China are also now using their control over certain key materials to gain control in the trade war. Bloomberg reported on Friday that the US dominates in ethane, a gas used to make plastics, and China buys nearly all of it. Washington is now tightening control by requiring export licenses. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Trump's call with Xi came as the US is pushing countries to speed up trade talks. The White House confirmed that the US sent a letter to partners as a "friendly reminder" that Trump's self-imposed 90-day pause on sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs is set to expire in early July. White House advisers have for weeks promised trade deals in the "not-too-distant future," with the only announced agreement so far coming with the United Kingdom. US and Indian officials held trade talks this week and agreed to extend those discussions on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the July 9 deadline. Also this week, effective Wednesday, June 4, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% Meanwhile, Trump's most sweeping tariffs face legal uncertainty after a federal appeals court allowed the tariffs to temporarily stay in effect, a day after the US Court of International Trade blocked their implementation, deeming the method used to enact them "unlawful." Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Bet you were wondering how long we could go before mentioning Elon Musk's feud with President Trump in this blog (lots more on that here, here, and here). Yes, the remarkable back and forth included Trump threatening Musk's government contracts — and Musk seeming to agree with a call to impeach Trump, while also throwing in an "Epstein files" mention. But as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details, Musk is now going to war with many of the biggest pillars of Trump's agenda. There was a tariff mention as part of that. Specifically, Musk not only criticized the tariffs — he's now on record saying he thinks they will cause a recession this year. As Ben writes: Read more here. Trade talks between the US and India were set to wrap up this Friday, but now they are being extended into next week as officials on both sides aim to work out an interim deal before a July 9 deadline. Indian government sources said the discussions, which have focused on tariff cuts in the farming and auto sectors, will continue next Monday and Tuesday. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are looking to double trade by 2030 and cement a trade pact by fall 2025. Reuters reports: Read more here. US and Chinese officials exchanged jabs at an event held by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai on Friday, as the chamber appealed for more clarity for American businesses operating in China. Reuters reports: Read more here. 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This follows Washingtons block on chip exports to China. 'Ethane is no longer just a byproduct of shale — it's now a geopolitical weapon,' said Julian Renton, lead analyst covering natural gas liquids at East Daley Analytics. 'China bet billions building infrastructure around US ethane, and Washington is now questioning whether that bet should continue to pay off.' But the US is not the only one weaponising their grip on vital materials. China has tightened control on rare earths, a crucial element used for technology products. However, on Thursday President Trump got a commitment from China to restore flow of rare earth magnets. These moves by the US and China marks a shift toward using strategic resources as leverage. President Trump confirmed his call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Truth Social, saying the call lasted one and half hours and "resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries." "I just concluded a very good phone call with President Xi, of China, discussing some of the intricacies of our recently made, and agreed to, Trade Deal," President Trump said. Trump added that the call focused on trade, including rare earth minerals, and that the two leaders did not discuss the Russia-Ukraine war or Iran. Notably, Trump outlined that he and Xi agreed on next steps for trade talks, which will take place "shortly." Trump is sending Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to meet with Chinese officials. Trump also said he and the first lady had been invited to visit China and that he extended the same invitation to President Xi. Read more here. The US trade deficit shrank in April as imports fell sharply, mainly due to President Trump's tariffs and companies who had previously raced to beat high import costs, no longer rushing in goods ahead of new levies. Reuters reports: Read more here. 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The world's largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble (PG), said on Thursday it will cut 7,000 jobs, approximately 6% of its total workforce, over the next two years as part of a new restructuring plan to combat falling consumer demand and higher costs due to tariffs. P&G said it also plans to exit some product categories and brands in certain markets. P&G, which makes popular brands such as Pampers and Tide detergent, said the restructuring plan comes when consumer spending is pressured. Like P&G, other consumer companies are also facing a drop in demand, such as Unilever. President Trump's tariffs on trading partners have deeply impacted global markets and led to recession fears in the US, which is the biggest market for P&G. A Reuters poll revealed that Trump's trade war has cost companies over $34B in lost sales and higher costs. My colleague Brian Sozzi highlights some of P&G's changes within his latest piece, stating that the consumer goods brand knows how to do a "few things very well." P&G was forced to raise prices on some products in April. Pricing and cost cuts were the main levers, CFO Andre Schulten said. On Thursday, Schulten and P&G's operations head Shailesh Jejurikar acknowledged that the geopolitical environment was "unpredictable" and that consumers were facing "greater uncertainty." Read more here. Instead of passing on tariff costs to consumers, tonic maker Fevertree Drinks (FQVTY) announced on Thursday it would equally split costs of the 10% tariff imposed on UK imports to the US with brewer Molson Coors (TAP). The British company, known for its premium cocktail mixers, counts the United States as its largest market, where it continues to deliver strong momentum bolstered by its partnership with the US beer maker Molson Coors. Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. British firms are brushing off President Trump's tariffs, according to a survey released on Thursday by the Bank of England. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bet you were wondering how long we could go before mentioning Elon Musk's feud with President Trump in this blog (lots more on that here, here, and here). Yes, the remarkable back and forth included Trump threatening Musk's government contracts — and Musk seeming to agree with a call to impeach Trump, while also throwing in an "Epstein files" mention. But as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details, Musk is now going to war with many of the biggest pillars of Trump's agenda. There was a tariff mention as part of that. Specifically, Musk not only criticized the tariffs — he's now on record saying he thinks they will cause a recession this year. As Ben writes: Read more here. Trade talks between the US and India were set to wrap up this Friday, but now they are being extended into next week as officials on both sides aim to work out an interim deal before a July 9 deadline. Indian government sources said the discussions, which have focused on tariff cuts in the farming and auto sectors, will continue next Monday and Tuesday. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are looking to double trade by 2030 and cement a trade pact by fall 2025. Reuters reports: Read more here. US and Chinese officials exchanged jabs at an event held by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai on Friday, as the chamber appealed for more clarity for American businesses operating in China. Reuters reports: Read more here. India's Tata Steel has warned that it might be excluded from tariff-free access to the US under the UK's trade agreement with the Trump administration. This exclusion risks putting more than $180M worth of annual exports at risk. The FT reports: Read more here. Two of the largest economies in the euro zone saw industrial production decline in the first month of President Trump's sweeping tariffs, indicating a economic slowdown after a stronger-than-expected year, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Friday. Wall Street Journal: Read more here. The EU said on Friday that it is open to reducing tariffs on US fertiliser imports as a trade bargaining tool in talks with the Trump administration. However, the EU said it would not weaken its food safety standards in pursuit of a deal. EU agriculture commissioner Christophe Hansen told Reuters: "That is definitely an option," Hansen said, of reducing US fertiliser tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. If car buyers think they will be able to beat President Trump's tariffs, they should think again. The trade war has already led to an increase in US auto prices and some of these hikes are invisible to consumers. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. According to a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, most US firms with operations in china are not budging. The survey revealed that some US don't want to leave the country and in fact would ramp up production in China, despite the the challenges posed by tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. We know what President Trump wants in trade discussions with China. But what does China's Xi Jinping want? Bloomberg News reports Read more here. Both the US and China are using their control over key materials in a deepening trade war standoff. On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Washington is restricting ethane shipments, a gas China heavily relies on for plastics production. This follows Washingtons block on chip exports to China. 'Ethane is no longer just a byproduct of shale — it's now a geopolitical weapon,' said Julian Renton, lead analyst covering natural gas liquids at East Daley Analytics. 'China bet billions building infrastructure around US ethane, and Washington is now questioning whether that bet should continue to pay off.' But the US is not the only one weaponising their grip on vital materials. China has tightened control on rare earths, a crucial element used for technology products. However, on Thursday President Trump got a commitment from China to restore flow of rare earth magnets. These moves by the US and China marks a shift toward using strategic resources as leverage. President Trump confirmed his call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Truth Social, saying the call lasted one and half hours and "resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries." "I just concluded a very good phone call with President Xi, of China, discussing some of the intricacies of our recently made, and agreed to, Trade Deal," President Trump said. Trump added that the call focused on trade, including rare earth minerals, and that the two leaders did not discuss the Russia-Ukraine war or Iran. Notably, Trump outlined that he and Xi agreed on next steps for trade talks, which will take place "shortly." Trump is sending Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to meet with Chinese officials. Trump also said he and the first lady had been invited to visit China and that he extended the same invitation to President Xi. Read more here. The US trade deficit shrank in April as imports fell sharply, mainly due to President Trump's tariffs and companies who had previously raced to beat high import costs, no longer rushing in goods ahead of new levies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese state media reported Thursday morning that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call at Trump's request. Anticipation had been building as to when the two leaders would speak, as trade tensions between the US and China reignited after Trump and Chinese officials each stated the other had broken their informal Geneva agreement. Trump had publicly pushed for a phone call, which press secretary Karoline Leavitt hinted would come this week. The call appears to mark the first talk between the two leaders during Trump's second term in office. Indian and US officials are holding high-level talks this week in New Delhi to hammer out a finalized trade deal that could be announced this month, two government sources told Reuters. Reuters reports: Read more here. The tit-for-tat game between the US and China continues. A Bloomberg report on Thursday said that the Trump administration plans to broaden restrictions on China's tech sector with new regulations to include subsidiaries of companies under US curbs. This follows China's curbs on rare earths which have led to the US, the EU, Japan and global car companies sounding the alarm on supply chain issues. The Geneva tariff talks between the US and China were meant to help prevent trade tensions between the two nations and put a stop to escalating tariffs. However, it seems both sides are unwilling to back down. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business optimism has fallen sharply, reflecting a trend seen in the first quarter of the year and a reversal from the buoyant mood after President Trump was elected. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The world's largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble (PG), said on Thursday it will cut 7,000 jobs, approximately 6% of its total workforce, over the next two years as part of a new restructuring plan to combat falling consumer demand and higher costs due to tariffs. P&G said it also plans to exit some product categories and brands in certain markets. P&G, which makes popular brands such as Pampers and Tide detergent, said the restructuring plan comes when consumer spending is pressured. Like P&G, other consumer companies are also facing a drop in demand, such as Unilever. President Trump's tariffs on trading partners have deeply impacted global markets and led to recession fears in the US, which is the biggest market for P&G. A Reuters poll revealed that Trump's trade war has cost companies over $34B in lost sales and higher costs. My colleague Brian Sozzi highlights some of P&G's changes within his latest piece, stating that the consumer goods brand knows how to do a "few things very well." P&G was forced to raise prices on some products in April. Pricing and cost cuts were the main levers, CFO Andre Schulten said. On Thursday, Schulten and P&G's operations head Shailesh Jejurikar acknowledged that the geopolitical environment was "unpredictable" and that consumers were facing "greater uncertainty." Read more here. Instead of passing on tariff costs to consumers, tonic maker Fevertree Drinks (FQVTY) announced on Thursday it would equally split costs of the 10% tariff imposed on UK imports to the US with brewer Molson Coors (TAP). The British company, known for its premium cocktail mixers, counts the United States as its largest market, where it continues to deliver strong momentum bolstered by its partnership with the US beer maker Molson Coors. Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. British firms are brushing off President Trump's tariffs, according to a survey released on Thursday by the Bank of England. Reuters reports: Read more here.
CNET
24 minutes ago
- CNET
Mortgage Rate Predictions for June: Can Rates Fall Without Fed Cuts?
Mortgage rates can change daily and even hourly. Tharon Green/CNET Forecasts for the housing market haven't changed much, with stubbornly high mortgage rates keeping prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. After the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage inched past 7% last week, it's moving back down, but not by much. Meanwhile, Friday's release of labor data showed the unemployment rate maintaining a status quo at 4.2%, which likely won't cause enough alarm for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting on June 17-18. As I've pointed out in the past, a slowing job market would make it more likely for the central bank to lower borrowing costs. But even though official labor data appears stable, experts warn the worst is yet to come. Jobless claims and layoffs are increasing, signaling employer caution amid trade wars and ballooning government debt. The Fed is facing a challenging balancing act between keeping inflation in check and keeping unemployment low. Inflation is expected to go up as domestic companies pass expensive duties onto consumers in the form of higher retail prices. "As long as the tariffs remain high, there will be a worry about persistently high inflation that the Fed cannot ignore," said Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economic research. Most experts say the housing market is unlikely to change significantly in the coming months. With no clear consensus on what's next for the economy or fiscal policy, mortgage rates have been in a holding pattern. Prospective homebuyers should expect rates to remain near 6.8% for the remainder of 2025, according to Redfin's forecast. How would the Fed impact mortgage rates? Following signs of cooler inflation, the Fed cut interest rates three times in 2024, making borrowing costs slightly less restrictive. However, the Fed has held rates steady since then, waiting to see the long-term implications of the president's policies before it lowers rates again. The Fed's actions don't immediately dictate mortgage rates, but they indirectly influence how much it costs to borrow money across the economy. Financial markets don't expect interest rate cuts until September at the earliest. "There's way too much uncertainty as to what becomes of the tariffs, inflation and the broader economy," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at "There may be no cut at all if conditions don't support it." Fewer interest rate cuts combined with the administration's budget bill, which is expected to significantly raise deficits, are likely to keep upward pressure on longer-term bond yields. The 30-year mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, so rising bond yields translate to higher rates for home loans. On the other hand, if the unemployment rate starts to climb due to the recent wave of layoffs, the central bank might consider easing policy to avert a deeper downturn. That would put downward pressure on Treasury bond yields and mortgage rates. Could a recession result in lower mortgage rates? In order for mortgage rates to drop significantly, the overall economic picture would have to get a lot bleaker, which isn't great for those struggling to afford a home. "The situation could change quickly if there are new announcements out of the Trump administration or if global economic conditions weaken," said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. A recession isn't a foregone conclusion, though it's still a possibility. Joblessness is on the rise, consumer spending has slowed and economic growth declined in the first quarter of 2025. The prospect of a slowdown is weighing heavy on consumer confidence. Stagflation, an economic downturn marked by high inflation, is also a threat. If lower mortgage interest rates are a by-product of a recession, buyers who are worried about job security and affording the high cost of living will be hesitant to take on mortgage debt. "When people are anxious, they are less likely to make big decisions, like buying and selling a home," Sturtevant said. What do housing market experts recommend? In today's unaffordable housing market, prospective buyers have multiple reasons to postpone plans for homeownership. High mortgage rates and growing unease about economic instability have kept overall activity low. "Given so many unknowns, it is a good time for caution. But if the market presents a potential homebuyer with a house they love and can afford, there's little reason not to take advantage of the opportunity," said Gumbinger. Homeownership offers the promise of long-term financial stability and generational wealth-building through equity. If you're waiting for mortgage rates to come down before buying, keep in mind that the large-scale economic issues affecting the housing market are beyond your control. Instead, you can focus on the ways to bring down your individual mortgage rate, said Hannah Jones, senior research analyst at For example, shopping around for lenders can save borrowers up to 1.5% on their mortgage rate. Since each lender offers different rates and terms, you can always negotiate a better rate. If you're financially ready to buy, you can always refinance your mortgage down the road. Jones said other strategies for lowering your mortgage rate include improving your credit score, making a larger down payment or choosing a more affordable home. Experts recommend making a homebuying budget and sticking to it. Creating a realistic financial plan can help you decide if you can handle the costs of homeownership and provide you with some guidance for how large your mortgage should be. Watch this: 6 Ways to Reduce Your Mortgage Interest Rate by 1% or More 02:31 More on today's housing market
