Newspoll has Labor further ahead but Albanese says election is anyone's to win

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21-04-2025

Welcome back to your daily election wrap. Brett Worthington will catch you up on news from the campaign trail.
Anthony Albanese opened himself up to the comparison.
After singing the praise of Australian Formula One driver Oscar Piastri, a journalist travelling with the prime minister wondered how he felt about being in pole position, electorally.
"There is no complacency from my camp, I assure you of that," Albanese said of the looming poll of another kind.
"This election is certainly up for grabs."
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Albanese awoke to welcome news in Newspoll (the public poll he watches the closest), that showed support for Labor increasing to 34 per cent. If replicated on May 3, it would be an improvement on Labor's 2022 election results.
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor remains ahead 52-48, which was the same a week ago.
Fresh from spending the weekend at Sydney's Royal Easter Show, Albanese was adamant he wasn't counting his chickens.
"I remind colleagues that [in] 2019, the bookies paid out, and that [win] didn't occur," he said.
No goats were safe from political campaigning at Sydney's Royal Easter Show.
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ABC News: David Sciasci
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Clive giveth and he taketh away
The first votes will start being cast tomorrow, in an election where preferences are expected to play an even bigger role than previous years.
In 2004, more than half the seats in the House of Representatives were determined on the first preference. Two decades later, fewer than 10 per cent of seats were determined on the first preference.
The rise of the teal independents have savaged Liberals in seats where they have historically attracted more than 60 per cent of first preferences, seats once held by prime ministers Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull.
The major party leaders found themselves campaigning at Sydney's Royal Easter Show at the weekend.
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ABC News: Ian Cutmore
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It's an experience Labor is bracing for in at least two western Sydney seats, Jason Clare's Blaxland and Tony Burke's Watson, where both attracted more than 50 per cent of first preference votes last time.
Both cabinet ministers are facing independent challenges that could knock them below 50 per cent after the first preference.
Ahead of those votes being cast, the parties have released their how-to-vote cards.
Clive Palmer, whose advertising proved instrumental in savaging Labor's 2019 hopes, has preferenced challengers ahead of incumbents in most seats, a move he said is aimed at inflicting pain on both major parties.
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The Trumpet of Patriots' preferences offer an unexpected boost for the independents seeking to topple incumbent Coalition MPs in Wannon (Dan Tehan), Cowper (Pat Conaghan) and Bradfield, where Paul Fletcher is retiring.
Labor has landed an unexpected win in Bennelong, where despite holding the seat, a redistribution has moved it notionally to the Liberals. In this seat, Palmer has preferenced incumbent Jerome Laxale ahead of his Liberal challenger.
But he's done the reverse in the Victorian seat of Menzies, where Liberal incumbent Keith Wolahan's seat has notionally moved to Labor after a redistribution. In this seat, Palmer is preferencing Wolahan behind his Labor opponent.
The Greens are also crying foul after Labor opted for an open ticket in Melbourne's Macnamara, which has the second largest Jewish constituency in the country.
If the Greens finish third in the seat, Labor's Josh Burns will comfortably hold the seat.
But if he slips to third, the Greens argue the open ticket will increase the odds of a Liberal win.
Coalition's late pitch to voters
The Coalition is this week expected to announce its last major policy — an increase to defence spending.
The announcement will come under the spectre of Anzac Day and amid uncertain times globally.
The opposition has long foreshadowed it would out-spend Labor on defence, and is expected to set the goal of 2.5 per cent of GDP in the coming decade.
Australia is budgeted to spend almost $60 billion next financial year on defence, representing a little over 2 per cent of GDP.
Peter Dutton took his campaign to the Victorian seat of Dunkley on Monday.
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ABC News: Ian Cutmore
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Labor had hoped to increase that to 2.4 per cent in the 2030s but is now unlikely to hit that goal, with 2.3 per cent more likely.
Complicating the Coalition's bid to spend 2.5 per cent is the amount of money it has pledged in matching Labor election promises on health and cost-of-living measures.
Former prime minister John Howard was famous for saying you can't fatten a pig on market day, prompting questions about why the Coalition would leave such a big announcement until after people started voting.
Would you like a briefing on the Loch Ness Monster?
The Easter long weekend might have brought with it a slowing of the campaign but it certainly wasn't without politicians trying out their new zingers.
There was Labor's Jason Clare labelling the Coalition's plans as "Dutton dressed as lamb", after Liberal Jane Hume rather unhelpfully described the opposition's now killed off work-from-home policy as
Not to be outdone, cabinet minister Murray Watt took his best swipe, suggesting Dutton's "got more cuts in store than Freddy Krueger",
Jodie Haydon and Anthony Albanese attend Easter mass at Saint Mary's Cathedral in Sydney on Sunday.
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ABC News: David Sciasci
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But Watt found himself hoisted by his own petard when it came to Indonesia and Russia's bid to base military aircraft there.
Watt said there was "no proposal" and that the Coalition was "asking for a briefing on something that doesn't exist".
"They might as well ask for a briefing on the Loch Ness Monster," he told Sky News on Sunday.
The Coalition hasn't helped itself with Peter Dutton having to withdraw false comments he made, suggesting Indonesia's president had confirmed Russia's request.
Watt's language marked a noticeable shift from Albanese, who played down the prospect of the planes being based in Indonesia.
While it might not be a prospect, it doesn't mean there wasn't a proposal, which is why neither Watt nor Albanese found themselves repeating the comments on Monday.
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Good day for...
Mike Pezzullo, who could see his bureaucratic career resurrected if the Coalition wins the election. Pezzullo worked closely with Dutton for years, only to be sacked as Home Affairs secretary in 2023 after it emerged he had breached the public service code of conduct 14 times.
Dutton told Nine's newspapers that Pezzullo should have "a role to play in the future of this country", a sentiment Albanese wasn't echoing on Monday. "Peter Dutton confirmed that he wants to sack 41,000 public servants but wants to bring one back," he said.
Bad day for...
Jason Smart, Clive Palmer's TOP candidate in Victorian Liberal-held seat Flinders, who is urging voters to put him last on their ballots. Smart told The Australian he was in "disbelief" and had been "blindsided" by TOP preferencing a "teal" independent, Labor and the Greens ahead of Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie. He said he only agreed to run after getting an undertaking that the independent, Labor and Greens would be preferenced last.
What to watch out for
Early voting begins tomorrow. The AEC is anticipating that half of all voters will cast an early ballot ahead of May 3.
Where pollies have been
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