Donald Trump's head-spinning foreign policy

Mint

19 hours ago

WASHINGTON—President Trump hasn't sounded much like Donald Trump in recent days.
He said the U.S. needed to attack Iran over a growing nuclear threat, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization wasn't ripping off America and that Russian President Vladimir Putin was an impediment to ending the war in Ukraine. It was a remarkable shift for a president who said he would extract the U.S. from foreign entanglements, once called NATO obsolete and often has avoided criticizing Moscow.
But Trump's supporters and critics alike said they didn't expect the new version of Trump to last for long. By Friday afternoon, Trump said he wouldn't lift sanctions on Iran after suggesting earlier in the week that he would do so. Minutes later, he said he was canceling trade talks with Canada.
Since his first days in office, Trump has pinballed from dove to hawk, at some points promoting a more inward-looking America and at others defending risky armed responses. Trump has kept world leaders off balance since his second inauguration in January, threatening tariffs against dozens of countries, hinting at military incursions against Greenland and Panama and ambushing fellow national leaders in the Oval Office. The president's supporters said he would do whatever it takes to secure U.S. interests—and that keeping foreign leaders on their toes is a feature not a bug.
This past week has underscored the complexities of defining a cohesive 'Trump Doctrine." He has promised to keep the U.S. out of conflicts in the Middle East, but has nonetheless engaged in them. He has said he would do whatever possible to end the war in Ukraine, but has at times been hesitant to put political and economic pressure on Russia to do so.
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Trump practices 'purposeful strategic ambiguity" in foreign policy to give himself leverage in negotiations. 'World leaders fear him, respect him, and hang on every word he says," she said.
Trump is in full command, Leavitt said, asserting that he is shaping—not reacting to—complex global events. 'The world has changed because of Donald Trump," she said, 'Donald Trump has not changed because of the world."
But some analysts said Trump doesn't appear to have a clear foreign-policy worldview. 'It is hard to discern a coherent, strategically consistent thread through what Donald Trump does," said Christopher Preble, director of the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center think tank.
Trump initially resisted involving the U.S. in Israel's military campaign against Iran, but later authorized U.S. strikes on Tehran's nuclear sites. The mission was designed to inflict maximum damage on the facilities, knowing Iran was weakened and would struggle to retaliate, before turning back to his preferred diplomacy-focused approach.
After helping to broker a cease-fire in the Israel-Iran war, Trump gave conflicting public statements about whether the U.S. would try to reach a deal with Iran to dismantle its nuclear program. 'We may sign an agreement," he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference, but added, 'I don't think it's that necessary."
Two days later, Trump said the U.S. would pursue a nuclear pact that could include inspectors in Iran and the end of the nation's domestic uranium enrichment—but his advisers said he remained open to striking Iran again if necessary.
Trump's comments this week triggered confusion among foreign-policy analysts and government officials over whether the U.S. would wind down sanctions on Tehran. Trump wrote on social media earlier this week that China could purchase oil from Iran, a move that would weaken the president's maximum-pressure campaign aimed at starving Iran of money to fund its nuclear ambitions and regional proxies.
The White House later said there had been no change in U.S. sanctions policy. Then on Friday, Trump said he had been working to remove U.S. sanctions on Iran after all. But he said he changed his mind because he was angry at Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for saying his country had won the war.
Trump is hardly the only president who adjusted his foreign policy views in response to events.
George W. Bush campaigned against nation-building, but after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq before attempting to establish democratic beachheads in both countries. Barack Obama promised a more peaceful foreign policy, but he expanded the use of drone strikes and ordered more troops into Afghanistan and Iraq without fully resolving either conflict.
Presidents who follow carefully-planned strategies aren't guaranteed success. The Biden administration spent months trying to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it didn't stop Putin from launching the largest European land war since World War II.
Trump has long touted his personal approach to decision-making.
'I like following my instincts," Trump said when announcing his decision to send 3,000 troops to Afghanistan in August 2017 after campaigning on ending the war. 'But all my life I've heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office."
After vowing to reduce military involvement in the Middle East, Trump also authorized a large campaign to defeat ISIS, attacked chemical-weapons sites in Syria and ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, then the leader of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Trump promised a different approach in his second term: The U.S. would finally steer clear of the Middle East's internal affairs.
'In the end, the so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built—and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves," he said during a May visit to Saudi Arabia.
The following month, Trump authorized 125 U.S. aircraft, including seven B-2 stealth bombers, to drop more than a dozen 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs and a barrage of cruise missiles at Iranian nuclear sites. Trump quickly brokered a cease-fire between Iran and Israel, ending the 12-day war.
The Iran strikes prove a Trump doctrine is coming into view, administration officials said. Vice President JD Vance, in a social-media post this week, said Trump's approach to foreign policy centers on three points: '1) Clearly define an American interest; 2) negotiate aggressively to achieve that interest; 3) use overwhelming force if necessary."
Arriving at the framework took years, according to his supporters. 'I don't see this as a different Trump; I see it as a more experienced president," said Victoria Coates, vice president of the Heritage Foundation's national security and foreign policy team.
Administration officials said the president's approach has led to successes. Iran's nuclear program was set back significantly by the attack Trump authorized. The U.S. brokered a peace deal between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda.
Trump also has said he persuaded India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed enemies, in May to quit fighting after a four-day skirmish that could have spiraled out of control. Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, while India disputes the U.S. played a significant role.
But such accomplishments don't stem from a core foreign-policy vision, said John Bolton, one of Trump's national security advisers in the first term, and whom Trump dismissed. The only consistency with Trump, he argued, is that he is inconsistent. 'There's an old saying about Washington weather that applies to Trump: 'If you don't like the weather, wait a minute and it will change,'" Bolton said. 'That is the only certainty in Trumpworld."
Write to Alexander Ward at [e-mail]