Dubai real estate forecast for 2025 positive as world's wealthy lured by Golden visas, low tax and lifestyle
Dubai's residential market started the year on a strong note, amid sustained demand by a growing population and heightened investor interest.
According to the Savills Q1 2025 Dubai Residential Market in Minutes report, the first quarter of the year recorded a robust 23 per cent year-on-year increase in transaction volumes, underscoring the emirate's ability to hit a sweet spot between investment potential and quality of life.
Rachael Kennerley, Director – Research said: 'In Q1 2025, off-plan sales continued as the cornerstone of transaction activity, representing 69 per cent of all deals. The residential market witnessed robust supply, with more than 30,000 units launched during the quarter, most of which were apartments.
Dubai real estate growth
'This figure is more than double the volume recorded in the same period last year, as developers capitalised on strong market demand.'
The ready market, comprising transactions in completed and handed-over projects, made up the remaining 31 per cent of transactions.
Apartment sales accounted for the majority of transactions at 81 per cent in this segment, reflecting its dominance in Dubai's housing stock.
Looking at the market overall, apartments dominated sales activity, accounting for 76 per cent of all transactions.
However, the villa and townhouse segment witnessed a notable resurgence, with transactions rising from 18 per cent in the previous quarter to 24 per cent in Q1 2025.
Prominent micro-markets located along the Al Khail corridor, including Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Dubailand, Damac Hills 2, The Valley, and Damac Lagoons, accounted for 55 per cent of total transaction volumes and 56 per cent of all newly launched residential units.
Land saturation and limited affordability in the city's core residential locations have pushed development toward peripheral areas, said Savills.
Dubai's prime residential market continues to perform well, underpinned by Dubai's sustained appeal for HNWIs. Demand was driven by the strong quality of life proposition, a low tax environment, easy business set up costs and the strength of the Golden Visa programme.
More than 1,300 units were transacted at values exceeding the AED10m ($2.72m) mark in Q1 2025 — marking a 31 per cent year-on-year increase.
Contrary to the wider market, villas dominated prime transactions with 73 per cent of market share, recording a 52 per cent year-on-year rise and a 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter uptick.
According to Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency: 'Demand across the prime residential segment in Dubai has not simply sustained but strengthened. Amid tariff wars, geopolitical uncertainties and unpredictable tax environments, the world's wealthy increasingly recognise Dubai's appeal, and developers are rising to the occasion.
'Villas in coveted locations, space and privacy are the preferred choice but supply remains restricted for the time being.'
Looking ahead, the outlook for Dubai's residential sector remains optimistic. Savills anticipates that amid global macroeconomic and political uncertainties, the emirate's political stability, competitive regulatory landscape, and business friendly ecosystem are expected to support ongoing population and investment inflows.
The development pipeline is however significant and necessitates a balanced approach to supply and demand.
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