Trump, Newsom each find support and face risks in immigration debate
"In a way, it benefits both Trump and Newsom. Trump's core supporters love dramatic displays of force, and they hate California," John Pitney Jr., a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College, told USA TODAY. "Progressive Democrats hate Trump. They've been leery of Newsom's outreach to conservatives, and his recent statements shore up support on his left."
But there are also political threats to both men if the protests drag on, which could make each look ineffective. The additional risk to Newsom's presidential aspirations in 2028 is that other Democrats could come away looking more powerful, such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.
"Politically, at least, Newson is in the trickier spot here," William Howell, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, told USA TODAY.
Trump campaign on immigration enforcement and has long criticized California
Trump and the GOP have long portrayed California as the epitome of bad governance. They've recently poured the blame on Newsom, who was first elected as governor to the nation's most populous state in 2019 and now is in his second term. California's high taxes, homeless problem and other issues have provided the GOP with political fodder for years.
"Donald Trump wants to portray California as the epitome of an America gone wrong," said Sonoma State University political science professor David McCuan.
The clash between protesters who burned cars, threw rocks and shot fireworks at authorities plays into the GOP's portrayal of California as chaotic. The situation revolves around an issue - undocumented immigration - where Trump believes he has a mandate from voters for mass deportations and strong border security.
"Illegal immigration was on top of voters' minds across the country in 2024," said Mark Bednar, a former senior House GOP leadership aide. "And it should shock no one that President Trump is working around the clock to address it."
Newsome accuses Trump of political overreach
Newsom has condemned the violence, but the pressure from the GOP shows the difficult situation he's in trying to criticize Trump's actions as overreach while also maintaining order in his state.
"Newsom, meanwhile, has clear incentives to stand up to Trump and decry his autocratic excesses, which explains his vocal opposition," said Howell from the University of Chicago. "But if he harbors national political ambitions, which he plainly does, then Newsom needs to avoid aligning himself with the most extreme members of the Democratic Party."
Matt Lesenyie, a political science professor at California State University Long Beach political, said Newsom is at a "huge disadvantage" against Trump on this issue.
"A lot of people, not just Newsom, get hurt with Trump because they let him pick the fight," Lesenyie said. "I think it's too late for Newsom or (Los Angeles Mayor) Karen Bass... this is going to turn into a war of images."
Surrogates fuel the political fires
The California confrontation has spread far beyond the state's boundaries.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, told reporters June 10 that Newsom "ought to be tarred and feathered" for "standing in the way of the administration carrying out federal law." In the Oval Office with Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Californians "should never elect him into a leadership position ever again." Trump added: "The governor's a nice guy but he's grossly incompetent."
Trump told reporters later in the day he's "always had a good relationship" with Newsom and had a 16-minute phone conversation with him, but that "he just doesn't do a very good job."
"We have an Olympics coming up," Trump said of the 2028 games. "We have a lot of people all over the world watching Los Angeles. We've got the Olympics, so we have this guy allowing this to happen."
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pennsylvania, said in a social media post June 9 he stands for "free speech, peaceful demonstrations and immigration - but this is not that."
"This is anarchy and true chaos," he said. "My party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting cars on fire, destroying buildings, and assaulting law enforcement."
But other fellow Democrats have rallied to Newsom's defense.
Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, the top Democrat on the Senate subcommittee responsible for the Pentagon's budget, said "warfighters are not political tools meant to patrol the streets of our own cities or to suppress the political views of their fellow Americans."
"I trust local law enforcement, Mayor Bass, and Governor Newsom when they say that violence won't be tolerated and that they are able to handle these protests without the military," Coons said. "What President Trump is doing is not only unneeded. It has made the situation much worse."
Those competing visions on how to handle the protests were on full display during a June 10 House hearing featuring Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who faced a question from Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-California, seeking justification for using the military for civilian law enforcement.
"Why are you sending warfighters to cities to interact with civilians?" Aguilar asked.
Hegseth replied that Trump "believes in law and order.'
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Scottish Sun
an hour ago
- Scottish Sun
Rogue state Iran plans terrifying response to Israel blitz from immediate counterstrikes to secret NUKE as tensions boil
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Israel hoped to coordinate an attack with the US, but Benjamin Netanyahu's ex-advisor last week told The Sun how the prime minister was mapping out a plan to bomb Iran without Trump. Advertisement And now US officials have been warned Israel is ready to unleash strikes on the rogue nation, sources have revealed. In a telling sign, the US has scaled down its presence in the Middle East and removed non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, Iraq. Trump alluded to potential conflict last night as he said: "They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place and we'll see what happens. "They can't have a nuclear weapon, very simple, they can't have a nuclear weapon, we're not going to allow that." Advertisement Netanyahu has been making preparations behind the scenes to swiftly blitz Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities as he deems the country "enemy number one". Trump, however, had firmly insisted Israel take no action that could jeopardise his administration's efforts to thrash out a deal with Iran. Israel MUST defy Trump and strike weakened Iran to neutralise nuclear threat But Netanyahu appears on the brink of giving the green light to strike as a sixth round of talks tentatively set for Sunday in Oman looms. Iran's furious Revolutionary Guard commander vowed Tehran would respond in a "more forceful and destructive way" to Israel than in past offensives. Advertisement It comes as the UN nuclear watchdog found Iran is not complying with its nuke obligations amid alarming reports that the Islamist state has stepped up secret plans to build nuclear weapons Raz Zimmt, who spent more than two decades in the IDF's military intelligence, said Iran is likely to immediately retaliate with a huge missile blitz if Israel launches missiles as its turf. But the veteran Iran-watcher warned it could spur Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to continue his warped nuke scheme with no oversight - or even break out a nuclear weapon. He told The Sun: "We have to make a distinction between two concerning scenarios in the day after an attack whether it's an Israeli or an American attack. Advertisement "The immediate retaliation would probably be the launching of long-range missiles from Iran against Israel if that's an Israeli attack. "I assume that if it's just an Israeli attack Iran will not take the risk of engaging the United States into a military confrontation with Iran by targeting US forces or US bases in the region. Iran's breaching nuclear rules IRAN has been declared as in breach of its nuclear rules for the first time in two decades. The UN's atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, passed a resolution on Wednesday condemning Tehran's "lack of co-operation". It is the culmination of several stand-offs between the Vienna-based IAEA and Iran since Trump pulled the US out of a nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers in 2018 during his first term, after which that accord unravelled. Tehran said it "has no choice but to respond to this political resolution", and said it would launch a new enrichment site "in a secure location". The state said: "Other measures are also being planned and will be announced subsequently." An IAEA official said Iran had given no further details such as the location of the site. It comes as US and Iranian officials are due to hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran's accelerating uranium enrichment programme in Oman on Sunday. The Trump administration has been trying to secure a deal with Tehran aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear programme. Donald Trump is said to be in advanced talks with Iran over a preliminary agreement that could include provisions on uranium enrichment - terms Israel finds unacceptable. "In that case, we'll probably see more or less what we saw in early October. "Perhaps more than that Iran is still equipped with thousands of ballistic missiles it can use against Israel. Advertisement "Those can certainly inflict significant damage to Israel but this is only the immediate kind of retaliation. Israel of course can try to defend itself. "Israel can carry out strikes which could in a way limit the missiles capabilities in Iran." An Iron Dome operator previously told The Sun how the IDF was ready for any possible air assault from Iran. Tsgt Y said: "Fearful [of an attack from Iran]? No. We're prepared for anything that might come." Advertisement Dr Zimmt warned Israel blitzing Iran could spark weeks of military confrontation between the two nations. But he argued it could prompt a far more sinister outcome. Insiders say Iran right now has the capacity to create three to five nuclear bombs - but does not have the ability to make them explode. 7 Iran launched projectiles at Israel before being intercepted by the Iron Dome in the sky above Jerusalem in October 2024 Credit: Alamy Advertisement 7 Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pictured last week Credit: Getty 7 "[It is possible] after an Israeli strike Iran will try to take the remnants of what is being left of its nuclear capabilities, the fissile material, the centrifuges, what will be left out of the two main enrichment facilities and try to reconstitute its nuclear programme this time without any IEA inspections," Dr Zimmt said. "And so Iran can certainly use this opportunity to make a decision to break out a weapon which will require continuous efforts by both the United States and Israel to avoid that scenario. Advertisement "So the immediate retaliation would probably be some kind of missile attack against Israel if it's only Israel. "The second kind of retaliation would be concerning Iran's efforts to rehabilitate its nuclear program and perhaps also breaking out weapons." A French government insider close to Israel said it will be imperative other countries form a deterrence coalition if Israel strikes to fend off retaliation from Iran. The source, speaking to The Sun in Paris, warned Iran "know how to fight" and are "used to long wars". Advertisement "You must have a kind of coalition against the reaction of Iran," they said. "And you have seen this small coalition immediately before, US, UK and France, and some Arab countries. "But somebody like Trump would not support that, I mean an attack from Iran. "So it must be a kind of deterrence, saying to Iran, OK, you have this strike from Israel, but you can't reply, because we are there now. So if you reply, this is an attack against us. Advertisement "That's deterrence. "If Iran tries to strike back, you will see immediately a kind of coalition against Iran. "And you will have a huge, huge political issue, because the best ally of Israel, the United States, the best ally of Iran is Russia. "So if you have a strike between Israel and Iran, the problem is between the United States and Russia." Advertisement IDF sources, speaking to The Sun at a base in Israel in April, revealed the military had been working for months to clear the path for a major strike on Iran. Three air campaigns eliminated strategic aerial defences which were 'the main obstacle' protecting Iran's nuke facilities, the insider confirmed. Vitally, this would allow Israeli aircraft to get to Iran's borders with diminished fear of being blasted. Iran's secret nuke site 'Rainbow' Exclusive by Katie Davis, Chief Foreign Reporter (Digital) CHILLING satellite pictures reveal Iran's sprawling secret nuclear site codenamed "Rainbow". Sources in the country have uncovered how the base is being used to develop nuclear-capable missiles with a 2,000-mile range - able to strike US bases in the Middle East. Tehran's tyrannical regime is using oil and chemical facilities as a cover for nuclear bases, bombshell docs shared with The Sun by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) reveal. Haunting aerial images expose a network of clandestine sites - including "Rainbow" - used by iron-fist leaders to create terrifying nuclear weapons. A powerful nuclear blast from Iran could have disastrous consequences for the Middle East - and beyond - thanks to the capability of the warheads. Now sources inside Iran have revealed the regime's nuclear weaponisation entity, Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research's (SPND) secret project to accelerate nuclear ability. Hidden under the guise of a chemical production facility, the crowning jewel of the operation is a base known internally as the 'Rangin Kaman (Rainbow) Site". It is some distance from Iran's already known nuke bases, and is masked as a chemical production company known as Diba Energy Siba. READ MORE HERE 7
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
US trade war enters precarious slow grind: Taosha Wang
June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. trade negotiations have transitioned from their opening act, with its many twists and turns, into a new, protracted chapter: the Slow Grind. It may be less turbulent than this past spring's drama, but no less worrying for investors. Now that the U.S. and China have the framework for a trade agreement, attention may start to turn to the European Union, which appears next in line to strike a deal with the Trump administration. But the prospect of a swift resolution seems remote. Finding significant common ground to meaningfully reduce the EU's substantial goods surplus with the U.S., roughly $200 billion annually, presents a formidable challenge, as major avenues appear blocked. First, the EU is highly unlikely to concede on agricultural market access given the region's strong and comprehensive policy for protecting local agriculture. Large-scale aircraft deals also seem improbable given the Airbus-Boeing rivalry. The contentious issue of pharmaceutical pricing will complicate any healthcare deals. And American automakers will likely struggle to make much of a dent in the EU market given entrenched European consumer preferences and regulatory hurdles. While Europe could theoretically increase purchases of U.S. defense equipment or relax "Buy European" policies in defense procurement, the political palatability of such moves is low. Consequently, the focus may inevitably shift towards the services sector, where the EU runs an approximately $100 billion annual deficit with the U.S., driven largely by the operations of American technology giants. Here, a potential landing zone exists: the EU could conceivably ease some of its more burdensome technology regulations with limited immediate downside, offering a tangible, albeit partial, lever to address the overall trade imbalance. In fact, Section 899 in the Trump administration's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" – which threatens to increase taxes on entities from countries with "unfair foreign taxes" – appears to be aimed directly at digital taxes levied by EU countries on U.S. technology companies. This suggests that this area could be a focal point in U.S.-EU negotiations. U.S. negotiations with the EU are also occurring against a markedly different backdrop than the one that prevailed in May during the earlier round of trade talks with China. Back then, the United States was just emerging from a significant bout of financial market volatility and facing the risk of "empty shelves" if onerous tariffs on China remained in place, so both investors and business leaders were demanding urgent action. The U.S. administration is now operating under fewer acute time constraints. Importantly, EU exports to the United States are predominantly industrial and luxury goods, not the daily consumables that directly impact the average American's pocketbook. Adding to this calmer backdrop, capital markets have shown signs of adapting to the current administration's seemingly unpredictable trade tactics. The S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab has rebounded 20% since its post-Liberation Day low and is only around 2% below its all-time high. One major risk, however, is that the U.S. starts taking a harder line with Europe for fear of looking weak. Central to the U.S. negotiation strategy is the perceived credibility of threats. Given the Trump administration's emphasis on the president's deal-making prowess, the U.S. fundamentally cannot afford to be seen as backing down consistently, a scenario some critics have labelled "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO). Being perceived as unreliable with ultimatums would critically undermine the administration's negotiating power, not just with the EU, but globally. This need to maintain a credible hard line could add friction to the process, making concessions harder to make and progress slower to achieve. Looking forward, this elevated – and likely protracted – uncertainty in trade negotiations is liable to act as a cap on near-term equity market upside on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly heading into the seasonally weaker summer period. On the currency front, the euro may continue to appreciate against the dollar – ending a more than decade-long trend of U.S. dollar strength – if wary European investors bring more capital back home. This could give the European Central Bank greater leeway to implement interest rate cuts, with less immediate concern about imported inflation. However, such euro strength has historically been negatively correlated with the performance of risk assets more broadly, adding another layer of complexity to the investment landscape. Further complicating the picture is the risk that the tentative deal just reached with China could unravel, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war within the U.S. administration between China hawks and pragmatists. The frenetic pace of the trade war's opening chapter has given way to a more arduous phase. This "Slow Grind" promises to generate more uncertainty, testing the patience of markets and policymakers alike, with progress likely measured in inches rather than miles. (The opinions expressed here are those of Taosha Wang, a portfolio manager and creator of the "Thematically Thinking" newsletter at Fidelity International.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
The Sun
2 hours ago
- The Sun
Rogue state Iran plans terrifying response to Israel blitz from immediate counterstrikes to secret NUKE as tensions boil
IRAN could be spurred on to rush the creation of a nuclear weapon if Israel unleashes an attack, an ex-military intelligence agent warns. Israel 's top brass are understood to be poised to blitz the rogue nation within days without the backing of the US. 7 7 7 It comes as Donald Trump 's 60-day deadline to thrash out a deal with Tehran over its nuclear programme last night expired. Senior military and political sources in Tel Aviv told The Sun back in April how Israel was plotting to strike Iran's nuke sites within weeks. A senior diplomatic insider, speaking in Jerusalem, said Tehran's nuclear programme should have been dealt with "a long time ago". Israel hoped to coordinate an attack with the US, but Benjamin Netanyahu 's ex-advisor last week told The Sun how the prime minister was mapping out a plan to bomb Iran without Trump. And now US officials have been warned Israel is ready to unleash strikes on the rogue nation, sources have revealed. In a telling sign, the US has scaled down its presence in the Middle East and removed non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, Iraq. Trump alluded to potential conflict last night as he said: "They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place and we'll see what happens. "They can't have a nuclear weapon, very simple, they can't have a nuclear weapon, we're not going to allow that." Netanyahu has been making preparations behind the scenes to swiftly blitz Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities as he deems the country "enemy number one". Trump, however, had firmly insisted Israel take no action that could jeopardise his administration's efforts to thrash out a deal with Iran. But Netanyahu appears on the brink of giving the green light to strike as a sixth round of talks tentatively set for Sunday in Oman looms. Iran's furious Revolutionary Guard commander vowed Tehran would respond in a "more forceful and destructive way" to Israel than in past offensives. It comes as the UN nuclear watchdog found Iran is not complying with its nuke obligations amid alarming reports that the Islamist state has stepped up secret plans to build nuclear weapons Raz Zimmt, who spent more than two decades in the IDF's military intelligence, said Iran is likely to immediately retaliate with a huge missile blitz if Israel launches missiles as its turf. But the veteran Iran-watcher warned it could spur Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to continue his warped nuke scheme with no oversight - or even break out a nuclear weapon. He told The Sun: "We have to make a distinction between two concerning scenarios in the day after an attack whether it's an Israeli or an American attack. "The immediate retaliation would probably be the launching of long-range missiles from Iran against Israel if that's an Israeli attack. "I assume that if it's just an Israeli attack Iran will not take the risk of engaging the United States into a military confrontation with Iran by targeting US forces or US bases in the region. Iran's breaching nuclear rules IRAN has been declared as in breach of its nuclear rules for the first time in two decades. The UN 's atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, passed a resolution on Wednesday condemning Tehran's"lack of co-operation". It is the culmination of several stand-offs between the Vienna-based IAEA and Iran since Trump pulled the US out of a nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers in 2018 during his first term, after which that accord unravelled. Tehran said it "has no choice but to respond to this political resolution", and said it would launch a new enrichment site "in a secure location". The state said: "Other measures are also being planned and will be announced subsequently." An IAEA official said Iran had given no further details such as the location of the site. It comes as US and Iranian officials are due to hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran's accelerating uranium enrichment programme in Oman on Sunday. The Trump administration has been trying to secure a deal with Tehran aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear programme. Donald Trump is said to be in advanced talks with Iran over a preliminary agreement that could include provisions on uranium enrichment - terms Israel finds unacceptable. "In that case, we'll probably see more or less what we saw in early October. "Perhaps more than that Iran is still equipped with thousands of ballistic missiles it can use against Israel. "Those can certainly inflict significant damage to Israel but this is only the immediate kind of retaliation. Israel of course can try to defend itself. "Israel can carry out strikes which could in a way limit the missiles capabilities in Iran." An Iron Dome operator previously told The Sun how the IDF was ready for any possible air assault from Iran. Tsgt Y said: "Fearful [of an attack from Iran]? No. We're prepared for anything that might come." Dr Zimmt warned Israel blitzing Iran could spark weeks of military confrontation between the two nations. But he argued it could prompt a far more sinister outcome. Insiders say Iran right now has the capacity to create three to five nuclear bombs - but does not have the ability to make them explode. 7 7 7 "[It is possible] after an Israeli strike Iran will try to take the remnants of what is being left of its nuclear capabilities, the fissile material, the centrifuges, what will be left out of the two main enrichment facilities and try to reconstitute its nuclear programme this time without any IEA inspections," Dr Zimmt said. "And so Iran can certainly use this opportunity to make a decision to break out a weapon which will require continuous efforts by both the United States and Israel to avoid that scenario. "So the immediate retaliation would probably be some kind of missile attack against Israel if it's only Israel. "The second kind of retaliation would be concerning Iran's efforts to rehabilitate its nuclear program and perhaps also breaking out weapons." A French government insider close to Israel said it will be imperative other countries form a deterrence coalition if Israel strikes to fend off retaliation from Iran. The source, speaking to The Sun in Paris, warned Iran "know how to fight" and are "used to long wars". "You must have a kind of coalition against the reaction of Iran," they said. "And you have seen this small coalition immediately before, US, UK and France, and some Arab countries. "But somebody like Trump would not support that, I mean an attack from Iran. "So it must be a kind of deterrence, saying to Iran, OK, you have this strike from Israel, but you can't reply, because we are there now. So if you reply, this is an attack against us. "That's deterrence. "If Iran tries to strike back, you will see immediately a kind of coalition against Iran. "And you will have a huge, huge political issue, because the best ally of Israel, the United States, the best ally of Iran is Russia. "So if you have a strike between Israel and Iran, the problem is between the United States and Russia." IDF sources, speaking to The Sun at a base in Israel in April, revealed the military had been working for months to clear the path for a major strike on Iran. Three air campaigns eliminated strategic aerial defences which were 'the main obstacle' protecting Iran's nuke facilities, the insider confirmed. Vitally, this would allow Israeli aircraft to get to Iran's borders with diminished fear of being blasted. Iran's secret nuke site 'Rainbow' Exclusive by Katie Davis, Chief Foreign Reporter (Digital) CHILLING satellite pictures reveal Iran's sprawling secret nuclear site codenamed "Rainbow". Sources in the country have uncovered how the base is being used to develop nuclear-capable missiles with a 2,000-mile range - able to strike US bases in the Middle East. Tehran's tyrannical regime is using oil and chemical facilities as a cover for nuclear bases, bombshell docs shared with The Sun by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) reveal. Haunting aerial images expose a network of clandestine sites - including "Rainbow" - used by iron-fist leaders to create terrifying nuclear weapons. A powerful nuclear blast from Iran could have disastrous consequences for the Middle East - and beyond - thanks to the capability of the warheads. Now sources inside Iran have revealed the regime's nuclear weaponisation entity, Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research's (SPND) secret project to accelerate nuclear ability. Hidden under the guise of a chemical production facility, the crowning jewel of the operation is a base known internally as the 'Rangin Kaman (Rainbow) Site". It is some distance from Iran's already known nuke bases, and is masked as a chemical production company known as Diba Energy Siba.
