Starmer's ‘one in, one out' migrant plan will end in failure

Spectator

15 hours ago

Britain and France believe they have found a solution to the small boats crisis. According to reports, Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron have agreed to implement a 'one-in, one-out' system whereby Britain will return to France illegal migrants who have crossed the Channel in small boats. Britain, for its part, will accept migrants who have a legitimate case for joining family already resident in the UK. A government source told the Times: 'It'll start as a pilot but it's to prove the point that if you pay for your passage on a boat, then you could quite quickly find yourself back in France.'
Under the scheme, Britain and France would process migrants using biometric details and separate those who have a valid claim for family reunification in Britain from those who do not. The latter would be returned to France.
The French know a thing or two about 'gimmicks' when it comes to the migrant crisis
The scheme could be officially unveiled as early as next week so Starmer has something to celebrate as he marks his first year in power. But is it a deal worth celebrating?
This is not the first time Paris and London have solemnly pledged to work together to combat the scourge of illegal immigration. In 2002, Home Secretary David Blunkett and his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy announced a deal to close the Sangatte migrant camp at Calais. 'We will also put an end to a symbol – a symbol which was like a magnet for immigrants who thought that by coming there they would find a way into the UK,' declared Sarkozy.
The deal did little to stop the migrants, so in 2014 another deal was signed, in which Britain handed over €15 million to France. A year later another treaty was hammered out, this one signed by Theresa May and Bernard Cazeneuve. The pair put pen to paper on 20 August. Eleven days later Angela Merkel threw open Europe's borders to more than one million refugees and migrants with her now infamous cry of 'Wir schaffen das!'. As The Spectator remarked a few days later: 'She has exacerbated a problem that will be with us for years, perhaps decades.'
Between 2014 and the end of 2022, Britain paid France £232 million to better manage their shared border. In March 2023, Britain handed over an additional £500 million, money well spent, according to the then prime minister Rishi Sunak. 'Working together, the UK and France will ensure that nobody can exploit our systems with impunity,' he declared, promising that the money would 'put an end to this disgusting trade in human life'.
Nearly 37,000 people arrived in England illegally on small boats in 2024, 7,000 more than in 2023. So far this year, more than 18,000 have crossed (a 42 per cent increase on the same period in 2024) – a figure that is likely to surge over the summer as the traffickers take advantage of the good weather.
The Tories were quick to criticise this latest scheme. Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said that 'the French are failing to stop the boats at sea…and now instead of demanding real enforcement, Labour are trying a one in, one out gimmick'.
The French know a thing or two about 'gimmicks' when it comes to the migrant crisis, as they do about broken presidential promises. The French people long ago stopped believing a word Emmanuel Macron says about solving their own migrant chaos. In July 2017, for example, two months into his presidency, Macron declared that he wanted:
Administrative processing everywhere, from the very first minute, to determine whether an asylum application can be made or not, followed by a genuine policy of deportation.
There was no processing, however, and as vast numbers of migrants continued to arrive in France, Macron came up with a new wheeze: instead of returning them whence they came, illegal immigrants would be dispersed in the provinces. The announcement of this plan, in 2022, was a political gift to Marine Le Pen's National Rally, and helps explain the party's electoral success in recent years.
According to the Times, under the one-in, one-out scheme, illegal migrants will be 'returned to locations across France, away from its northern coast'. Le Pen's party will oppose such a project, as will the centre-right Republicans.
The coalition government under Francois Bayrou is teetering on the brink after talks over pension reform collapsed earlier this week. The left have filed a vote of no confidence in Bayrou but Le Pen has said her party won't endorse it. The right are propping up the government, for the time being, but their support could easily be withdrawn – over a migrant relocation scheme, for example.
This latest plan to solve the small boats crisis will play out like every other since 2002: a firm handshake, a media fanfare and a complete failure.