Turkey rejects open-door policy for refugees if Iran falls apart

Middle East Eye

4 hours ago

Israeli and US attacks on Iran risk sparking a regional war or even triggering regime change in the country, a development that has concerned Turkish officials in Ankara since September.
The Israeli strikes that began earlier this month initially targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure and air defence systems.
Over time, however, Israel shifted its focus toward the Iranian government's command structure and later moved on to domestic security buildings.
For example, on Monday, Israeli forces reportedly targeted the internal headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as the notorious Evin prison, where political prisoners are held.
One Israeli minister even suggested that Israel was cooperating with the Iranian opposition, reinforcing Defence Minister Israel Katz's public statements that Israel seeks regime change or at least aims to undermine the Tehran government.
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That is a prospect that US President Donald Trump tried to normalise on Sunday night with a post on Truth Social. 'If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change???' he asked.
The Turkish government is acutely aware of the repercussions of regime-change operations and wars, having experienced the destabilising effects of the 2003 US-led Iraqi invasion and, more recently, the 2011-24 Syrian civil war.
These conflicts have often resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing into Turkey and have disrupted key sectors such as energy and trade.
Turkish society remains highly sensitive about the presence of refugees, notably the 2.7 million Syrians, many of whom are now returning to Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government. Experts and officials emphasise that there is currently no new wave of refugees.
However, several sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that as early as September, the Turkish government conducted in-depth studies on potential migration scenarios.
They estimated that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran could push up to one million Iranian refugees towards the Turkish border.
'Ankara would fulfil its obligations under humanitarian law, but it would not implement an open-door policy'
Serhan Afacan, president, Center for Iranian Studies
Turkey has the experience. In 2012, then-foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu attempted to control the influx of Syrian refugees by capping their number at 100,000 and threatening to establish a safe zone in northern Syria. However, the number of refugees quickly surpassed three million in the following years, which taught Ankara a difficult lesson.
Now, sources say Ankara is unlikely to accept any refugees except those in urgent need of emergency assistance.
'If the worst-case scenario were to occur and there was a mass migration from Iran to Turkey, whether permanent or in transit, Ankara would fulfil its obligations under humanitarian law, but it would not implement an open-door policy,' Serhan Afacan, president of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, told Middle East Eye.
A Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Ankara would no longer apply an 'open door' policy toward any neighbouring country in the event of a refugee wave. Iranians currently can enter Turkey without a visa.
An elite influx?
Many Turkish citizens are particularly wary of the possible arrival of the 4.5 million Afghans currently living in Iran.
However, Afacan noted that millions of Turkish-speaking ethnic Azerbaijanis also live in Iran. He said that if they were to gather at the border, it could shift the debate in Turkey and stir nationalistic sentiments.
'But at present, there are no indications that Turks in Iran are planning to migrate,' Afacan added.
Last week, sources from the Turkish defence ministry told journalists there is currently no sign of a refugee influx into Turkey.
Why has Turkey stopped short of condemning the US strikes on Iran? Read More »
One source stated that additional security measures have been implemented along all borders, including with Iran, and there is no uncontrolled migration. The Turkish Armed Forces are said to be prepared for all possible scenarios arising from regional developments.
This raises the question of whether Turkey would allow Iranian elites, including government officials, to enter if their government collapses.
Many Iranians have already bought homes or acquired Turkish citizenship through investment in recent years.
According to interior ministry data released this year, 76,000 Iranians hold residence permits in Turkey. At least 35,000 have purchased homes since 2019, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute data released in 2024.
It is unclear whether all these purchases were made to obtain Turkish citizenship, but a naturalisation consultancy expert told MEE that Iranians are among the top nationalities seeking Turkish citizenship. Between 2012 and 2024, a total of 384,000 homes were sold to foreigners.
Afacan said many Iranian officials and military officers already own property in Turkey.
For instance, during the emergency elections following President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash last year, there was a major controversy over claims that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his family owned several luxurious apartments in an upscale Istanbul residence.
Afacan added that, as in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, albeit on a much smaller scale, a significant number of Iranian government officials would likely head to Turkey if the government were to fall.
'I do not believe that Turkey would close its doors to such individuals in that kind of scenario,' he said.