This is the moment that will cement Trump's legacy

Yahoo

19-02-2025

When Woodrow Wilson delivered his Fourteen Points speech, the longest point was reserved for the treatment of Russia.
The then US president called for Moscow 'obtaining for her an unhampered and unembarrassed opportunity for the independent determination of her own political development and national policy, and assure her of a sincere welcome into the society of free nations under institutions of her own choosing'.
For generations, academics and diplomats have argued whether this meant welcoming Russia into the post-war world as a nation – but not as an empire.
The speech delivered by Wilson on Jan 8 1918 to Congress is widely considered America's first foray into establishing and policing an international rules-based order.
Now Donald Trump appears to have reached a fork in the road as he attempts once again to put Washington at the centre of ending the largest land war for generations.
Will he go down in the annals of history, like Wilson, and win a Nobel Peace Prize? Or will Mr Trump instead undo the work of his predecessor and usher in a new Russian empire under the stewardship of Vladimir Putin?
As it stands, the latter appears the most likely outcome of the 47th US president's first major attempt to broker an end to the almost three-year-long war between Ukraine and Russia.
From the outside, Mr Trump is seemingly dancing to Putin's merry tune, regurgitating Kremlin talking points and helping Moscow consume a fifth of its territorial neighbour.
Much like Wilson, the current commander-in-chief seems to want to hand Russia an 'unembarrassed opportunity' on a plate.
Both Moscow and Washington are discussing Ukraine's future, sovereignty and place in the world without inviting Kyiv to the table.
To make it worse, Mr Trump has started parroting Kremlin claims that Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's elected president, is illegitimate and unloved by his people.
He also blames the Ukrainian and Nato for Russia's decision to mount a full-scale invasion on Feb 24 2022 – another suggestion directly from the Kremlin's 'lines-to-take' guidebook.
And then there are fears that Mr Trump is willing to redraw and reduce the Western military alliance's presence in Eastern Europe as part of his grand plan to end the fighting in Ukraine, which was a key demand by Putin to call off his planned invasion in Dec 2021.
These are hardly the actions of a man who yearns to be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, like Wilson was for his efforts to stabilise the world order after the First World War.
Mr Trump has often complained he hasn't already been handed the shiny gong when Barack Obama was undeservedly given the award.
It might just be unlucky for the president that it is European nations who are in control of nominations for the prize, as Poland's foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, went to great lengths to stress at the Munich Security Conference in Germany last weekend.
'I would tell him that we Europeans are in control of the nomination process for the Nobel Peace Prize. So if Trump wants to receive this award, the world is on Ukraine should be fair,' Mr Sikorski said.
To get Europe, which Mr Trump has excluded from talks, back on side, the US president has much work to do.
He has consistently accused Europe of not doing enough to support Ukraine's war efforts, despite the continent's combined efforts being greater than those offered by Washington financially.
He has also demanded that European peacekeepers are left to their own devices to enforce his deal, which currently looks like it will surrender at least 20 per cent of Ukraine's sovereign territory to Russia.
But this could just be another play from the master of the 'Art of the Deal'. As Boris Johnson suggested on Wednesday: 'When are we Europeans going to stop being scandalised about Donald Trump and start helping him to end this war?
'Trump's statements are not intended to be historically accurate, but to shock Europeans into action.'
This is a well-worn tactic. His starting positions on major issues are often widely seen as outlandish or unachievable. There will likely never be a 'Gaza Riviera', for example.
This forces parties to come back with solutions that may actually be achievable.
In the Middle East, the New York Times reported that representatives of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are quietly co-ordinating to form an alternative vision for Gaza in which Arab countries would help fund and oversee its reconstruction, while keeping residents in place and preserving the possibility of a Palestinian state, according to diplomats and officials briefed on the discussions.
Mr Trump has destabilised the status quo and forced action.
This may be what he is doing over Ukraine – possibly to galvanise Europe to increase defence spending and secure Ukraine themselves.
Of course, there is still time for Mr Trump to change his mind as the fighting rages on in Ukraine and peace looks like a distant prospect.
But many in Europe see him as incapable of redefining his legacy in the shape of the Nobel Prize-winner Wilson.
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