Why Cason Wallace Will Be The Next Breakout Star The Thunder Produce
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - MAY 18: Cason Wallace #22 of the Oklahoma City Thunder finishes a slam ... More dunk during the first half of game seven of the Western Conference semifinals against the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center on May 18, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the midst of a dominant march to the NBA Finals, posting the best net rating by a Finals team since the superteam 2016-17 Golden State Warriors.
And if you thought the Thunder were too much to handle right now, this postseason has proved that they still have another future star waiting to burst onto the scene.
Cason Wallace didn't amaze anyone with his playoff debut last season. However, he was just a rookie, and he's bounced back in an incredible way this go around.
Despite the Thunder adding Alex Caruso this offseason (a move that would figure to cut into Wallace's minutes), Wallace has played more minutes per game this postseason (22.4) than he did last (19.8).
Wallace is one of the many formidable perimeter defenders on the Thunder's roster. During the regular season, he placed in the 92nd percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (per Dunks & Threes).
In their second round matchup against the Denver Nuggets, Wallace did nearly as good of a job guarding Jamal Murray as his All-Defensive Team mentor, Luguentz Dort. According to NBA.com matchup data, Murray shot 38.1% from the floor on field goals where Dort was his primary defender and 40.7% on ones where Wallace was shadowing him.
The difference is Wallace is a much better offensive player. So, it is harder for defenses to ignore him on the other side of the ball than it is with Dort.
Wallace has a better pedigree as a shooter – he's a career 38.9% 3-point shooter (Dort is only at 36%). Wallace is also a better passer and more capable of putting the ball on the floor and attacking the rim (see chart below).
Wallace's ability to defend at a high level while also still providing value on the offensive end makes him an immensely valuable player to this current iteration of the Thunder, as evidenced by his being first on the team (by a mile) in playoff on-off rating (+18.3 per 100 possessions).
Whether it be Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, or Chet Holmgren, the Thunder have a history of acquiring (mainly via the draft) and developing star players under the watchful eye of general manager Sam Presti.
Drafted tenth overall in the 2023 NBA Draft, Wallace has (in my opinion) the best chance of all of the Thunder's current young talent at being next in this lineage of success.
Between his blend of quickness and strength on defense, his promising shooting indicators, and his untapped potential (Wallace is only 21) as an independent scorer and playmaker, Wallace has drawn comparisons to Jrue Holiday – a six-time All-Defense selection and two-time All-Star.
More than his personal accolades (which he should probably have more of, by the way), Holiday has a long-standing history of making whatever team he's on way better when he's on the floor. Last season, his first season with the Boston Celtics, Holiday had an on-off rating of +10.8 per 100 en route to the 2024 NBA Championship. During Holiday's championship run with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2021, his team was +14.8 points better per 100 when he was on the floor than when he was on the bench.
For reference, those marks are higher than the on-off splits from Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo during those two respective runs. That's how impactful Holiday's two-way value was to his teams.
Even if he doesn't reach the heights Holiday did in his prime, I could easily see Wallace following in the footsteps of Andrew Nembhard (an incredible perimeter defender who consistently makes winning plays and provides secondary creation) – another plus-minus God. In any event, these playoffs have shown us just how good Wallace is right now and how he can be even better in the future.
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